The Blackmore’s Company is an Australian Health Supplementary Company that operates in the global level in an all around the country with its presence in more than 17 Countries. The home based Australian Company is a listed company in the Australian Stock Exchange and is having a market capitalisation of 2 billion dollars.
The company was founded in the year 1930, which started as a health food company in Brisbane to leading health Company operating globally, which marks the key success and growth of the company. The peculiar feature for the company is the type of products and the type of the services delivered by the company and the key differentiating way by which it caters to its customers (Yohn, 2015).
The financial analysis and evaluation conducted was based on the fact that the forecasting for the company will be done for the period 2019-2023 and the financial evaluation for the company will be done in order to review the performance of the company. The share price and valuation for the company based on four commonly used valuation models giving us a key idea about the current situation of the company (Sridharan, 2015). The valuation and the pricing of the company plays an important role in the financial evaluation for a company, There should be certain risk assessment tool like the scenario analysis tool which is been used in our report for understanding and analysing the various impact of the business outcome under different scenarios.
Discussion
Forecasting of the Financial Data
The Blackmore’s Company has followed different growth approaches for the expansion of the undertaken business and for the creation of wealth of shareholders. The key factors considered while forecasting of the financial statement for the company was the growth and the past performance of the company and replication of the same in the future as per the business conditions (Brigham et al. 2016). The Company has followed inorganic growth strategy by acquiring other potential company in the same business and industry and the company performed organic growth strategy by acquiring new plants and investing in better investment activities available to the company (Chen, 2016).
Growth Rate in Revenue
The growth of the revenue is a key factor for every company and is the primary factor determinant for the overall sustainability of the company in the long-term period. Revenue Analysis was done on the based on the historical performance for the company. The historical data analysed for the company was for the term period 2012-2018 (Froud et al. 2014). The performance for the company has shown a consistent growth and the same was expected to continue grow further. The forecasting for the sales for the period was done on the basis of average revenue growth from the period 2012-2018 and thus simulating the same into the forecasting.
Certain other factors like the business environment and the macro environment factors plays an important condition in determining the future of revenue growth for the company. The forecasting was done for the period 2019-2023, which helped us asses the possible scenario of revenue. The primary business area for the Blackmore Company is the Chinese Economy and the Australian Economy where the macro-economic conditions were forecasted and the same had been incorporated in the forecasting skills for the revenue for the company.
Political changes and technological changes, taste and preferences of the customers may harm and influence the forecast of the revenue and the same should be carefully analysed. The Chinese Economy GDP is expected to decline which may affect the growth of the revenue. The other opportunity for the Blackmore’s company is by taking advantage and use of the data analytics in the due course for analysing in the changing customer’s preferences and taste. The Blackmore’s company invests heavily in the research and development expenses so this could bring out a turnaround in the company internally by some of the methods of internal controlling tools.
The Blackmore’s should also explore out places and factors that should bring out changes and chances for the growth in the company. The inflation factor also plays an important role in determining the importance of the overall growth of the company. Since the annual inflation forecast for the Australian Economy is expected to decline, the forecast for the revenue growth and the input cost for the company will remain in favour of the Blackmore’s Company (Haltiwanger et al. 2016).
Asset Turnover Ratio
(Net Operating Revenue/Average Net Operating Total Assets)
The asset turnover for the company shows the net operating revenue generated by the company by the net amount of assets generated. The higher the better is the ratio and the same shows the efficiency in the assets of the company. The utilization of the company’s assets is well assessed by the use of this ratio. The forecasting for the Asset Turnover Ratio is done based on the historical and average return generated by the company in the trend period for the year analysed from the period taken 2012-2018 (Warrad and Al Omari 2015).
After the careful analysis of the financial report presented by the company it is crucial; to note that the company is spending a significance portion of its amount in the investing activities of the company through new and better plant. The asset turnover for the company in the trend period taken and analysed has remained volatile for the company while the ratio was highest in the year 2016.
The forecast for the asset turnover ratio is expected to decline for the year 2019-2023 after analysing that the sales and other business and macro environment may not be favourable for the company. Since the company is investing more into the total operating assets of the company from the year 2012-2016 and the same is expected to grow as well as in the forecasted year of 2019-2023. The revenue at the same time if remains volatile could bring out some negative exposure to the company (Gamayuni, 2015).
Profit Margin Ratio (Net Operating Profit after Tax (NOPAT)/Net Operating Revenue)
The profit margin of the company is determined by the net profit generated by the company on the total amount of revenue created by the company. The profit margin of the company has been on an average around 12-13% in the historical trend period taken from the year 2012-2018. The same is expected to decline for the company after the forecast for the company based on the revenue analysis and the business environment actors considered. The breakdown for the profit margin for the company should be done on the basis of the country sales and the same should be analysed so that country wise breakdown gives us a correct analysis of the same (Zainudin and Hashim 2016).
In analysing the profit margin and for forecasting the profit margin for the company the same should be compared to the industry average. The factors analysed and taken into consideration were the inflation forecast, industry average profit, input cost, efficiency level and the inventory and sales turnover ratio for the company, which would help us determine the net profit that can be achieved by the company in the due course of the time. The business strategy for the Blackmore’s Company is to analyse the market condition and along with the changing taste and preference of the consumer, the introduction of new products and services will be offered to the customers. Thus moving along with change and taste and preference of the consumers and the various products offered could bring out a better business strategy for the company (Heikal, Khaddafi and Ummah 2014).
After the careful analysis of the ratio determined the Asset Turnover ratio and the profit margin for the company it is crucial to note that the forecasted profit margin for the company is also expected to decline for the trend period taken into consideration for the analysis.
Net Dividend Pay-out Ratio
The net dividend pay-out ratio for the company shows the dividend per share, which the shareholders of the company on the total net operating profit after tax determined by the company. The dividend pay-out ratio for the company shows the amount of the net amount paid to the shareholders of the company out of the total amount earned (Kajola, Desu and Agbanike 2015). The plough back ratio is the common financial term, which can be denoted for profit retained by the company. The higher the plough back ratio for the company the more is the reinvesting ratio for the company in the investing and operating activities of the company.
The higher retention ratio reflects that the company is investing more money internally with the retained earnings, which is a more economical way of investing when there are plenty of opportunities available to the company. The lower the retention ratio the lower is the reinvesting ratio for the company at the same time the opportunities available to the company is reducing.
The historical trend analysis for the company shows that the company on an average from the year 2012-2018 has shown a higher retention ratio that is the company is ploughing back more profits and reinvesting the same in the net operating assets of the company. The current dividend pay-out ratio for the company is around 58% and the same is expected to remain for the company after the outlook of sales and the profit margin of the company remains volatile (Floyd, Li and Skinner 2015).
Net Borrowing Cost (NBC)
The net borrowing cost for the company is calculated on the total amount of the total long-term borrowings of the company. The forecasted net borrowing costs for the company depends on the total long-term borrowing for the company. The company historical average net borrowing cost for the company is expected to remain at an average and at the same rate of around 4.13% assuming that the historical rate of interest rate stays at the same rate is expected to continue for future assuming that the exposure to the debt of the company remains intact (Chamon, Schumacher and Trebesch 2018). The management decision and the financing of the same depends on the management decision lie in the year 2017 the management has significantly increased the dividend pay-out ratio for the year 2017.
It is crucial to note that the management of the company has significantly increased the exposure to the financing liabilities of the company from the year 2017 and 2018 (Szczerbowicz 2015). At the same time, it is crucial to note that the company was in the growth stage where the company had spent a huge amount in the investing activities of the company. The investing activities of the company however is expected to stabilize from the period 2019-2023 expecting that the investing activities of the company will remain as per the industry average rate. The relationship for the cash rate and the interest rate structure in an economy is crucial for an company. The same positive relationship has been there until the year 2016.
|
Particulars |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
|
Cash Rate |
3% |
2.50% |
2.50% |
2% |
1.50% |
2.00% |
|
NBC |
5.14% |
4.30% |
4.20% |
2.61% |
4.41% |
4.45% |
Cost of Equity
The weighted average cost of capital is commuted by including the weightage of debt and equity along with the cost at which the company will borrow the same (Antoniou, Doukas and Subrahmanyam 2015). The weighted average cost of capital is the amount, which will cost to the company in terms of the debt and equity financing. The Capital asset pricing model is the another commonly used method for calculating the cost of equity, the CAPM models incorporates the Risk free rate of return + (Return on market-Risk free rate of return)*Beta (Dhaliwal et al. 2014).
|
CAPM |
Column1 |
|
Risk free rate (Rf) |
2.64% |
|
β |
2.024037926 |
|
Market Risk Premium (Rm) |
6.5% |
|
Re=Rf+β*(Rm-Rf) |
15.80% |
|
Cost of Firm (WACC) |
|
|
Shares Outstanding |
1,72,27,000 |
|
Shares Outstanding ($’000) |
17,227 |
|
Market Price (at the closing of trading on Friday) |
154.4 |
|
Market Value of Equity |
2,65,98,48,800 |
|
Market Value of Equity ($’000) |
26,59,849 |
|
NFO |
78,180 |
|
Rd |
3.43% |
|
MV |
26,59,849 |
|
Re |
15.80% |
|
NFO+MV |
27,38,029 |
|
WACC |
15.44% |
Valuation Model
There are different valuation model, which can be applied for estimating the share price for the company. The four commonly used valuation methods are:
|
DDM |
$15.81 |
169.17 |
|
|
RIM |
$22.39 |
169.17 |
|
|
ROIM |
$24.14 |
169.17 |
|
|
FCFM |
$9.80 |
169.17 |
Dividend Discount Model
The dividend discount model incorporates all the expected future cash flow arising from an asset. The Dividend Discount Model is calculated by incorporating the cost of equity, which is used as a discounting rate for the same (Kubota and Takehara 2018). The terminal growth rate is assumed from the year 2023 onwards. It should be noted that the model only forecast the value that will be available to the shareholders of the company and the same forecast can change if the macro and business conditions change (Lazzati and Menichini 2015).
Residual Income Model
The residual income model is often used when the earnings of the company is more volatile in and the same cannot be applied in the valuation of the company. The residual income is the net amount remaining after paying off with the remaining amount of money. Residual income is generally applied for growing companies and companies that are having volatile cash flows. However it is crucial to note that Dividend Discount Model is applicable for companies that are having sound cash flows. The perpetuity factor taken for the terminal growth rate from the 2023 year onwards is the 5% growth which was taken after considering the macro economic conditions like the GDP growth rate and business factors like the increase in revenue and technological changes and output production in the company.
Free Cash Flow Model
The free cash flow model takes into account the net amount flowing to the stakeholders of the company from the operating and investing activities of the company (Chen, Sun and Xu 2016). The free cash flow for the Blackmore’s company is expected to increase as the company is increasing its global presence and investing further more into investing activities and into research and development expenses of the company (Dragan, Rosi and Avžner 2017). The discount rate considered for the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) is 15.44%
Sensitivity Analysis
The change in the dependent variable due to change in the independent variable component under given assumptions is called the Sensitivity Analysis. It shows the change in the dependent factor that is say sales or profit of the company due to change in other factors (Iooss and Lemaître 2015).
|
Original |
|
|
|
|
Rate |
Share Price |
|
Sales growth |
7% |
24.14 |
|
PM |
8.47% |
|
|
Net dividend pay-out ratio |
58.00% |
|
|
Cost of Debt |
3.43% |
|
|
Cost of Equity |
15.80% |
|
|
Cost of equity WACC |
15.44% |
|
|
ATO |
2.30 |
Growth Rate of Sales
The sales growth for the company has been taken on an average basis from the year 2019-2013 and based on that the growth rate for sales was considered (Borgonovo and Plischke 2016). If the sales of the company is expected to change as per the historical rend rate then under the optimistic scenario the sale can change up by 20% due to good business factor and can get worsened due to bad economic conditions.
|
Sales growth |
|
||||
|
Δ |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
||
|
Optimistic |
20% |
7.83% |
124.85 |
417.28% |
278.296 |
|
10% |
7.17% |
123.02 |
409.70% |
|
|
|
|
0 |
6.52% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-10% |
5.87% |
119.35 |
394.49% |
|
|
-20% |
5.22% |
117.59 |
387.20% |
|
Asset Turnover Ratio
The forecasting and the sensitivity analysis for the Asset Turnover ratio was based on the average of the historical trend period from the year 2012-2018 (Caputo et al. 2016). The optimistic scenario taken under assumes that if the ratio increases by 20% then the share price of the company will change by he following amount as described in the table (Warrad and Omari 2015).
|
ATO |
|
||||
|
|
Δ |
2.00 |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
|
Optimistic |
20% |
2.77 |
129.07 |
434.76% |
29.163 |
|
10% |
2.53 |
124.18 |
414.50% |
|
|
|
|
0 |
2.30 |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-10% |
2.07 |
111.15 |
360.52% |
|
Profit Margin
The average profit margin calculated for the company was calculated by taking the average from the forecasted trend period 2019-2023. The share price for the Blackmore’s Company is significantly influenced by the profitability of the company.
|
PM:7.00% |
|
||||
|
Δ |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
||
|
Optimistic |
20% |
10.16% |
192.90 |
699.22% |
3228.567 |
|
10% |
9.32% |
179.96 |
645.61% |
|
|
|
|
0 |
8.47% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-10% |
7.62% |
99.44 |
312.00% |
|
|
-20% |
6.78% |
83.52 |
246.04% |
|
Net Dividend Pay-out Ratio
After running the sensitivity analysis on the net dividend pay-out ratio for the company we did not see major changes in the share price of the company. The dividend pay-out ratio under both pessimistic and optimistic scenario did not show major changes.
|
Net dividend payout ratio |
|
||||
|
Δ |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
||
|
Optimistic |
20% |
69.60% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
0 |
|
10% |
63.80% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
0 |
58.00% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-10% |
52.20% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
Cost of Debt
The cost of debt for the Blackmore Company has been correlated with the cash rate in Australia if the cash rate in the economy falls below the normal mean level the Blackmore Company preferred more amount of debt financing that is cheap source of financing for the company this will lead to an marginal increase in the share price of the company if the cost of debt reduces by 20% it will profitable for the company under the optimistic scenario. However, under the pessimistic scenario of the Australian Government increases the cash rate then the debt financing cost for the company will rise by 20% and the share price of the company will at the same time show a negative return or show downward movement.
|
Cost of debt (4.13%) |
|
||||
|
Δ |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
||
|
Optimistic |
-20% |
2.74% |
123.67 |
412.39% |
-289.327 |
|
-10% |
3.09% |
122.64 |
408.12% |
|
|
|
|
0 |
3.43% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
10% |
3.77% |
120.68 |
400.00% |
|
|
20% |
4.12% |
119.70 |
395.94% |
|
Cost of Equity
The cost of equity for the company is significantly influenced by the required rate of return. Under the various scenarios if the cost of equity for the company under the optimistic scenario decreases the share price for the company will rise and other changes in the positive macro-economic conditions could also bring out optimistic scenario and the cost of equity for the company will decrease which in turn will increase the share price of the company (Goh et al. 2016). However it is crucial to note that worsening business and macro-economic condition could further increase the cost of equity for the company under this pessimistic scenario and the share price for the company will ultimately fall (Lui, Ngai and Lo 2016).
|
Cost of equity |
|
||||
|
Δ CAPM |
Cost of equity |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
|
|
Optimistic |
10% |
17.38% |
84.29 |
249.23% |
-4432.382 |
|
5% |
16.59% |
99.51 |
312.29% |
||
|
|
0 |
15.80% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-5% |
15.01% |
158.24 |
555.62% |
|
|
-10% |
14.22% |
224.32 |
829.40% |
||
|
Δ WACC |
Cost of equity(firm) |
share price |
Δ share price change |
sensitive valuation |
|
|
Optimistic |
10% |
16.99% |
83.73 |
246.91% |
-4685.894 |
|
5% |
16.22% |
99.23 |
311.13% |
||
|
|
0 |
15.44% |
24.14 |
0.00% |
|
|
Pessimistic |
-5% |
14.67% |
158.87 |
558.23% |
|
|
-10% |
13.90% |
228.46 |
846.56% |
Management Consulting Advice
The forecasted income statement and the balance sheet of the company has given us the key forecast for the company depending on the business condition what can be the possible sources for the revenue, asset turnover ratio, profit margin and cost of debt. The company’s presence in the global market along with the strong brand power and goodwill of the company may help the company outperform in terms of their competitors. However there are certain points, which the management of the company should consider before
Diversity in Product Portfolio
The Blackmore Company can only increase the base revenue for the company by adding up more products to its product portfolio basket. The taste and preference for the consumers changes rapidly and the management of the company should be spending in sufficient amount in the research and development expenses de (Leeuw, Lokshin and Duysters 2014). However, after analysing the financial statement of the company it is to be noted that the company has introduced several kind of products from the year 2017-18.
The Blackmore’s Company should open up healthcare clinics along with the health products in other developing economies also to increase the product sales and reach out its customers. Introducing products which are favourable and demanded by the consumers and giving them in the right time and right place (Kraiczy, Hack and Kellermanns 2014).
Terms with the Suppliers of the Company
The company’s profit margin is significantly influenced by the cost of input of raw materials and the terms and conditions of the supply of raw materials to the company. The terms and conditions of the supply should be well within the interest of the company in the long term. Blackmore should focus more on the supply terms of raw materials, credit period granted for the same, quality for the raw materials and various other factors which may directly and indirectly influence the profit and goodwill of the company.
There should be guidelines for the suppliers of the company so that it serves as a contract for both the parties among which the trade or work can operate smoothly. Vertical Integration is the key area where the management of the company should work on thereby removing inefficiencies in the retail to wholesale segment of the company.
Inorganic Growth
There are generally two sources of growth for a company organic and inorganic growth strategy. The organic growth strategy is also called the horizontal integration where the company tries to grow internally by removing inefficiencies and by investing in plant and machinery and better technologies and research for new products (Humphery?Jenner, Sautner and Suchard 2017). The inorganic growth strategy is one where the company acquires another similar company which is in the same industry and which can potentially boost the revenue of the company. The organic growth strategy was followed by the company several times in the historical trend period where the company acquired Pure Animal Wellbeing, Global Therapeutics and BioCeuticals (Hammer et al. 2017).
Data Analytics
The company should incorporate changing market condition and the needs and preference of the customer through data analytics and the same could give boost to the company in the terms of the revenue and better profitability margin. The data analytics and incorporating of company business into E-commerce website and E-commerce companies could potentially give additional exposure to the revenue of the company. The Company Blackmore recently has tied up with the E-commerce giant of the China Alibaba for selling products and services in China. The contract could turn out additional boost to the revenue of the company (Wang et al. 2016).
Increasing Customer Base
The company should focus more on increasing the customer base for the company as evaluated the long term macro-economic conditions may not be favourable but if the company try to focus more on favourable business conditions the company can show a turnaround in the company. The business conditions in the historical trend period has also been favourable when there was a free trade announcement between China and Australia these political factors could additionally boost the revenue of the company (Campello and Gao 2017).
Key Challenges and Risks
The key challenges and the risk for the company needs to be identified so that the management of the company can focus on the same and further bring improvement on the same. The key challenges are the technological changes, regulatory and political changes and the competition among the major players of the industry (Knox and Van Oest 2014).
Technological Changes like advancement of better equipped facilities, which can ensure optimum and efficient utilisation of resources. It should be noted that after analysing the financials of the company the total expenses of the company was the key factor influencing the profitability of the company. The key expense for the company was the input price or the raw material prices around 50% of the total expenses was due to single component. The major changes in the supply was seen when the company saw that the key ingredient used that is the Whey protein and Fish Oil a key component saw a major change in the supply and the price for the same influenced the profitability of the company.
The company operates in certain factors where regulatory and political changes can bring significant changes to the company. The changes in the Chinese Economy such as tightening regulation harmed the overall profitability of the company. Since the Company operates in major developing and developed nation regulatory and political changes should be reviewed and precautions should be taken in advance to mitigate the risk and exposure of the company with such changes (Cheng et al. 2014).
Conclusion
The Blackmore’s Company financials have remained stable and is expected to remain stable in the long term. It is crucial to note that volatile macro-economic conditions are forecasted for the company but the company can efficiently tackle them with positive business factors and conditions as analysed which could bring out a turnaround in the company.
The company should carefully analyse all the business factors and condition which could impact the revenue of the company. The company should focus more on increasing the product portfolio basket and should try to maintain key ratios of the company like the Asset Turnover Ratio and Profitability Ratio to ensure that the assets and wealth o the company are well utilized and the same is creating wealth for the stakeholders of the company.
However, it is crucial to note that since the favourable business conditions would bring out profitability for the company the valuation of the company according to the Dividend Discount Model and Free Cash Flow Model remains high implying wealth creation and value generation for the stakeholders of the company.
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