Risk assessment is the activity of finding out the quantitative or the necessary qualitative estimate of risk related to well define situation. Threat is also called a hazard, a qualitative risk assessment requires for there to be a calculation of more than two objects of the dangers. There is magnitude of the potential loss), thus it is regarded as the probability or likelihood of a certain event occurring.
The organization has an acceptable risk which is the risk that can be tolerated at a particular time. This risk is understood and tolerated in the entire because there are costs that are difficulty in the implementation of the effective cost measures. Health risk assessment entails the variations such as risk as the major type of severity of the considerable response, with or without a probabilistic context.
The exercise of risk assessment comprises of the objective evaluation of the risk in which the criteria is estimation and there are predictable uncertainties to be considered.
It is where the quantities by which risk assessment is concerned in the probable nature of the potential loss. There is possibility of equal priority, but in practice it can be tough to organize and risks when faced with inadequate resources. There is preferable time set aside for the management of the risk
Equipment reliability is defined as the capability to perform at the best conditions without breakdown or haltered operations. It is achieving the efficiency in terms of capacity out and the product. The equipment has to be in the best condition and performing as per to the expected standards.
A risk manager can do the following to ensure that the equipment will be reliable: Institute internal controls measures in the entity that will enhance compliance with the guidelines and stipulated laws.
Monitoring is necessary to ensure that the equipment is reliable to the entire organization thus the risk conscious manager should perform the following functions to enhance reliability.
Comparison of FMEA and the fault trees in the study of equipment failures risk conscious manager should do the following to solve some of the problems and thus improve human reliability in the plant.
Enhance considerable contribution to the maintenance and performance, implement the safety, and also ensure that there is cost efficiency of the production process. For a manager to improve human reliability there is need for quantifying the human errors and the probability of human errors determined. A manager in this position should conduct a human error which is very case specific in the aspect of context of the accounted fields.
Human reliability should be increased in a significant value and this will improve the reliability in maintenance activities in the cable manufacturing perspective. The manager must first determine the main causes of constraint which are the maintenance activities, time pressure, experience inadequacy and following poor procedures. However there are probabilities of the human error which are obtained by employing the three techniques which are similar and consistent.
The risk management is two separate but closely related activities that are very accurate and they have got the affirmation since are dependent on the other. Risk assessment is an important element in a risk management program. It is among elements such as beyond identification, worst case planning previous accident investigation.
A simple way of describing the risk assessment is that it uses scientific on qualitative procedures to determine probabilities of failure and malfunction once beyond the identification that has been done, the risk is assessed in order to obtain a mathematical function.
Risk management is fairly self-explained, it entails management of all the identified risk using common similarities. Judgment is put into consideration and qualitative aspect. The regards that have higher certainty of occurring are given the first priority in the likelihood of the must be taken into account to resolve the critical mistakes. “(Norman, 2016) said that there are methods which are adapted to in order to reduce the risks and the greatest impact on ourselves”.
FMECA is the initials for failure mode effects critically analysis and it is a technique for identifying operation weakness. It takes into account both design failure and human induced failure. FMECA can be used for risk management.
Probability times the consequence for our purposes is seen to prevail in the risk where it is the chance of the event of a loss. Probability is the chance of the event of an unwanted circumstance (possibility of loss or the certainty level.) The degree of loss is associated with uncertainties such as machine breakdown. Driving a car is seen as a risky activity because of the problems or dangers that are associated with the same. There is a chance that we will have an accident and act injured. Some of the physical hazards are caused by these unforeseen events.
A hazard is anything that can cause an undesired event hence a hazard is beyond a million to risk in a sense that it is taking a chance of something dangerous. Some people do not risk their money playing the lottery but you can’t hazard your money playing the lottery. Taking a jump with a pain of skills can be hazardous because if one does not properly hand it could because a hazards are strongly considered in risk assessment and risk management.
Consequence is referred to as the turn of events that happens after separate events. Consequences can either be good or bad. By buying a 649 ticket one can either win the jackpot (good consequence) or lose their luck. The consequence of an event occurring is always accounted for in risk management but not much in risk
NTS b determine the risk of the bus fire in Texas that killed 23 during hurricane RITA evacuation is as a result of insufficient lubrication in the right side of the tag Axial wheel bearing assembly of the motor couch. This phenomenon resulted into an increased temperature levels and the failing of the bearings that supports the wheels. This failure led to ignition of the fire and the catastrophic even henceforth. Global Limo Inc. failed to conduct an inspection; the passengers were not aware of this catastrophe and were incapable of detecting it because of the lack of skills in mechanics and motor vehicles.
Equipment reliability is describes as probability or chance that the given price of equipment will successful complete the required task. It is necessary to consider that the reliability decreases as time increases. The longer it keeps on driving my car the less it can rely on it for a sage and free trip.
A risk conscious manager can adopt a few procedures to ensure that equipment is reliable. First off all before purchasing the equipment there should be research on some of the various companies that manufacture the desired product hence he should get opinion from others who use this equipment. We know that some companies produce products that are more reliable that ones from different company. For example in the story profession Cooke told technicians from Rolls – Royce flow to Spain to repair one of their vehicles because they want to maintain their motto.
Our vehicles do not breakdown but there is always a price to pay for quality. Secondly once the equipment is implemented, he should verify the equipment operation by relatively maintaining it either himself or by a professional. In specific circumstances the manager is entitled acquiring the backup equipment depending on the consequences of failing equipment. These are only a few ideas and the actual processes he chooses depend on the amount of money he is willing to invest. A plant can become entirely risk free if he had unlimited amounts of money. Decisions must be made in order to determine how far one must go to increase equipment reliability and these hands in the category of risk management. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is used to determine certain design flaws on the final completed part. It considers two factors, safety and effectiveness.
Fault trees are similar in a way that they enhance generation of based on failures. It is the reverse order of events that cause an equipment failure. FMEA can assess potential equipment failures, whereas fault trees are created before or often the equipment is manufactured.
Human reliability is different from one person to another due to performance shaping factors (PSF). The PSF is one split into three categories, internal external and stressors. Unfortunately, the manager does not have a great control of an employee’s internal PSF ‘S. the only thing he can do with a drunken employee is to send him home. On the other hand he can modify the external PSF’S.
It is important to understand that training and experience are key components to human reliability. If an employee is lacking training for the required task, then failure is almost certain. Failure is when an employee is unable to attain the required standards of performance as it is recommended by the management.
An employer should be certain that his employees have the necessary knowledge and the expertise to successfully complete the given task. The aspect of job specification is considered necessary here thus the training is needed to equip the individuals with important skills. This is enhanced by a thoughtful hiring process (do not hire any Joe Blow to operate a nuclear reactor regulation or offer the appropriate training for the task that is to be given in accord of the higher management. The manager should make sure he is assigning appropriate work hours and shifts for the right production capacity to be attained.
The human resource needs a rest from time to time. In some situations, he may have to modify the working environment such as maintaining comfortable temperature or providing sufficient lighting. One of the most important things he can do is to reward and recognize his employees when they are doing a great job.
The incentives may be inform of gifts or promotion in the job after attaining a target in the company. In the field of sales the marketing agencies are entitles to receive a commission that is an extra income from the normal operation or the prescribed salary. If a worker feel recognized and important he is likely to do more work and achieve the targets as well as the expectation of the company. Better paid workers are known to have a better score card than those who are poorly paid.
According to the theory of motivation money has been termed as the main reason for good results which will be a benefit to the company. The best thing that a manager can do is to increase the workers effectiveness is to lead by a good example. The senior key staffs are working hard including the management, the officials the environment around will be effective in implementing the same.
The interest showing nature is necessary in whatever is being done around him in the organization case scenario. The employees will have someone to look up to at the end of the day by copying the good behaviors of the manager or the employer. They will be motivated to work harder in the perspective that they will be recognized and thus effectiveness will be in larger amounts as there is efficiency in work.
There are many positive solutions hence the manger should have a concise decision on the most appropriate to apply. There is an option to adopt a hope of modifying his employees work behavior and reliability.
The reports were not properly submitted of vehicle inspection which led to the danger of fire emancipating from the faults that are found to be in the car. The chairman Mark did not however emphasize on the need to enhance an oversight and instead stresses that they are likely to continue seeing more similar accidents which breaks the hope and thus uncertainty in the industry.
We have to consider the paths that are available and terminals. The terminals in this system have more reliable property as compared to any other component. 2007 Qn.1
I have used the five primitives which are applied in description of risk: The risk associated with the case is as follows.
The outcome of event that took place causing death of many casualties, the driver did not know the outcome because the risk could not be quantified according to the survey conducted by the national transport authority, The outcome of the event is certain that there is injured passengers who are hurt badly because of the event taking place.
Likelihood of the risk of fire outbreak from the rear wheel is high and this is the degree with which the danger lies ahead for the passengers, the Motor couch en route from Bellaire to Dallas is taking a very long route and the distance is prone to hot weather and hostile climatic conditions which are not suitable for a vehicle such as this.
Significant is the effect and the noticeability of the event that have occurred and this is depicted in the evacuation process where twenty –three of the 44 passengers are noted to be severely injured at the time of accident. Two of the casualties were seriously injured and 19 did receive minor injuries as result of the phenomenon taking place. The wreck is a result of the breakdown of the program instituted by the services hence there is increase in the significance of loss. The mechanics and the department that enforce laws and regulations pertaining to the standards of inspection did not perform its task as it is required by the authority.
The risk is accounted as possible and this is determined using the probability tree to identify the scenario. The motor couch left garage and preceded with the journey creating an uncertainty and the scenario is termed as dangerous in this aspect. The driver is not in a position to institute strict regulations that are supposed to be adhered to hence there are weak controls which are termed as dangerous in this context.
Population affected is the family of the injured because they have to cater for the hospital expenses and take care of their injured family members. The driver and the drivers in this case are the motorcar owners in the route of Texas and the neighborhood on Interstate which is in a range of 45 near Wilmer, Texas. The Motor couch, en route from Dallas, the pedestrians and other cyclists are affected by the occurrence of the accident which I lost termed as disaster given the magnitude of loss that it causes. The road is closed as result of is event taking place and the business is also affected which halters the normal operations of the day such as transportation of goods. The industries around the Bellaire to Dallas, Texas as part of the region are affected by the evacuation that is taking place.
Common cause events are the complementary events that depend on one another for example consider that the tire burst causes the fire in the engines and the loss of direction as well as the control of the car. The common cause is the originality of the problem which is considered as detrimental in the aspect that if the common activity prevails over the safety measures that have been instituted definitely there will be an opposite reaction and tragedy as result. The event is basically self-generated from within the environment of the event. It is also the risk that is inevitable where occurrence of one risk ascertains the occurrence of the next event.
A what if analysis is a measure of the quantity of the loss or uncertainty and prospecting of the event. The term what if takes another event or action that has not taken place already and assumes that it have already occurred and thus prospects and estimates the outcome of the results by use of estimates necessary and that have been collected from the data that is given. The insider information such a she quality and the continent of machine and expertise are put into consideration. The likelihood of an event taking place is compared with one other event and this creates a dilemma and it also enhances preparedness. The overall risk is detected by use of what if analysis which enables a person to estimate the effects and magnitude of risk taking place.
Non coherent fault trees are the events that are not depending on each other hence in this case the fault trees are a wreck in the aspect of risk occurrence. The divergence in the results is experienced in the case of non-coherent fault trees and they are most likely to occur. The heavy smoke that is emitted results to engulfing of fire and the entire vehicle results into the accident and wreckage.
Minimum cut sets are traditional solutions that entails reliability of the block diagrams and analysis of the charts. There are fault trees in these diagrams which entails a fault trees and involve the determination of the so called cuts sets that are also known as minimal. “(Martin, 2014) said thatThere is a famous researcher by the name of Bloksmith”.
A risk analyst has got the capability of deriving an exact analytical solutions to complex diagrams and therefore it fails to utilise and put intothe use the cut sets methodology.
Minimum path sets are the connected graphs where we have got the shortest path that are well defind (i.e there are no negative values in the case of lenghty cycles, A shortest path tree is constructed by use of the following algorithms: Bellman –Ford algorrithm is the methodology used to compute the distance (u) from a particulat root v to the vertex in G using Dijkstra’s. In circumstances where we have got non root vertices u, we can assign to u a parent vertex known as pu, such that there will be a connection between in the distances and the dist(pu) + edge – dist(pu,u)= distance (u). Incase there are multiple choices for Pu are found to exist then choose Pu for which there exists a shortest path from v to the Pu with very few edges as possible. The rule in this case is known as the tie braking because it is needed to prevent the loops when there are considerable cycles of zero length.
Outcome. The risk associted with the case is loss of life of the injured people in the accident hence they are sevelry injured as result of the crashing motorvehicle. The passengers invloved in the accident are many and the outcome is of high value since the rescue team is not in large number to assist in medication. Theere are no experts in dealing with first aid issues and the treatment of the first casulties hence they are prone to other additional problems such as death and extensive loss of blood.
Likelihood of the risk is that it is high and it causes the events to take place at any time afffecting the entire vehicle. The circumstances that will be experienced are those of negative in nature and this results to problems that have been experienced. Theres is fault in the car and the driver proceeds with the journey and this is signifant as it will make the accident to be fatal.
The mechanical issues are many and the wheel alignment is not consistentm there is need to measured the previous dangers associated with the exercise and this is the reason why accident occurs.
Significant of the case is that the transport authority has realised that the accident can be dangerous and fatal hence it has put across the measures to the motorvehicles and the number of passengers that the vehicle should carry. The effect is also termed as significant and this is the main cause of problem which is arising in the route being followed.
Possible scenario is the risk that the event will result to an amount of loss and it is the main cause of the misfortune. The driver has and the mechanic is aware of the possible scenario and this affects their functionality since they are fearing that there will be occurrence of loss but have not reduced this by adopting necessary precautions. The ugly scenarion is deemed to occur as result because the motorcouch can not proceed with the puncture. The possibility aspect is the resulting effect as aresult of an action A occuring.
The probability that the circuit operates given the fact that it is operational under the path of functional devices from left to right. The probability that each device functions is as below. 0.95 + 0.94 +0.92 =total cumulative probability, the probability that circuit operates is 0.93 because we have to consider the paths that are available and terminals. The terminals in this system have more reliable property as compared to any other component.
This is a block model of the system and calculation of the system reliability with respect to shutdown in terms of the reliabilities of component.
This nuclear power soley depend on the funcitoning of several components , they are formed or rather designed with numerous redundancies. Also assume there is an occurrence of natural catastrophe which alters the system operation. The particular major, design level of earthquake is an example f the dangers that are likely to be encountered. The cooling system and the primary containment vessel . I have assumed that there are three vessels used for the purpose of containment with two critical necesarry components A and B.
The above notion of the algorthim guarantees the existence of shortest path trees forexample the spanning trees known as the minimum spanning trees. Shortest-path trees in general are not unique.
In a graph where the edges weights equal one shortest path the trees are considered to coincide with the breadth –first seach trees. The minimal cut sets for the fault tree diagram system have been obtained as follows. Noting the exclusive events the heater system faults are SB closed, 1 which lies between the C and D in the heater system. HB falls is another minimum cut set and path set which is in the exclusive events. SA closed is 3 and thus HA fails to 4 forming a shortest path tree supposedly rooted at the vertex v is a spanning tree T of G.
The occurrence of the accident caused the demise of many people and thus it led to interference of the fire prevention and mitigation techniques to interfere and identified the measures which are instituted as a result of the Volpe national Transportaion Systems center fire safety analysis study.
There is need for the vehicle industry to revise the product maintenance manuals to emphasize the need of wheel checking. There is the aspect of wheel balancing which should be conducted before commencing the journey. The service industry dealing with automotive engineering of cars and heavy commercial vehicls fails to insititute strict guidelines which can make the company successful.
The wheel bearing failure and that bypassing this requirement is a dangerous aspect that have been considered in the report and incorporated in the company charter. This can lead to wheel fire and other serious consequences. During the occurrence of the accident the ambulatory condition of the passengers assisted in the severity of the accident by reducing the number of casualties.
At the time they noticed there were many suffering passengers the medics were reimbursed by the passengers who had firs aid skills and this led to the more lifes being rescued from the buring vehicle. There is a contributing reason as to the rapid propagation and severit of the cause of fire. The design of the motorcoach is not well ventillated and there is no emergency door which can be itilised in the situations such as these of fire outbreak. “(Humphrey, 2013) said that the combustion system is poor which returns the smoke and thus spreading fire to the engine”.
References
Peterson, M. (2012). The programme of maintenance that was in place malfunctioned and this is the disregard and ignorance on the place of management. Herman press. Australia.
Humphrey, R. (2013). The combustion system is poor which returns the smoke and thus spreading fire to the engine. Harvey press. Sydney.
Martin, E. (2014). There is a famous researcher by the name of Bloksmith. Kelly press. USA
Norman, P. (2016). Methods which are adapted to in order to reduce the risks and the greatest impact on ourselves: American press. New York
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