Discuss about the Mathematical Modelling and Mathematical Investigation.
In this report, the population growth in the country Australia is being studied. Australia is a country having a medium density of population. The growth rate of the population of Australia is 1.8 percent per year which is quite high. The main objective of this report is to analyze the growth rate of population of the country Australia and the problem of homelessness of the country (Coale & Hoover, 2015). A mathematical model will be build in this assignment in order to understand the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and the rate of growth of homelessness of the people of the country. The report gives the necessary information about data collection, formation of the mathematical equation and drawing of conclusion from the results of subsequent analysis. The report will give a clear idea about the growing population of the country and the problem of homelessness in the country (Toloo et al., 2015).
The population of a country increases every year due to a lot of factors. The increase in the population of the country may occur due to high rate of birth, low death rate. When the birth rate is comparatively higher than the death rate, the crude birth rate or the crude rate of natural increase (CRNI) increases. A very high value in the crude birth rate or crude rate of natural increase will explain that the population of the country is increasing at an alarming rate. There are also other factors affecting the population growth like the problem of immigration and migration. The term immigration refers to the migration of the people of the country one place to another. This event of migration makes a very high change in the population of the country (Birrell, 2014).
The population statistics of Australia has to be analyzed in this case. The population statistics of Australia states that the population of the country has increased by 1.4% at the end of the year 2014. The increase of the population figures at the end of the year 2016 is 2.6% while the increase in the population figures at the end of the year 2016 is 3.0%. The migration figures are gradually increasing over the years. The average growth of population over the years is 1.48%. This indicates the [population of the country is growing. The growth of the population of the country can be studied with the help of the following graph (Wilson, 2015).
Figure: Population growth o the country
Source: (Abs.gov.au, 2017)
Te main objective of the project is to study the growth of population of the country Australia. The population growth curve is supposed to follow an exponential distribution. This means that the population of the country can be expected to increase in an exponential manner. In order to study the growth of population of the country, one needs to understand the factors that are the main reasons of growth of the country. There are two main reasons for growth of the population:
1. Natural increase: The natural increase is the difference between the birth and the death rate of the population. The higher the difference between the birth and the death rate, the more is the increase in the population. A negative value of the measure indicates that the population of the country is decreasing while a positive value will indicate that the population of the country is increasing (Williams, 2013).
2. Net overseas migration: The overseas migration refers to the migration that takes place all over the country. The net overseas migration includes both the long term staying of the people as well as staying for a brief period of 12 to 16 months.
The graph has been obtained for the growth of population over the years in Australia starting from the year 2010 to the year 2015.
The graph shows that there has been an increase in the population from the year 2010 to the year 2012 and the decrease in the population after that period of time.
A regression equation has been fitted by taking the two factors that is rate of growth of population and the migration factors as two different variables. The regression equation is given below:
The population figures can be forecasted using the above model.
The homelessness is one of the major problems in Australia. The person who sleeps in the streets and does not has any roof or shelter is considered homeless in general. The homelessness can be defined in a broader sense (Payne, Macgregor & McDonald, 2015). There are people who dwell in their friend houses on a temporary basis are also considered homeless. The people who live in caravans or in overcrowded places such as boarding houses are also considered homeless (Chamberlain, Johnson & Robinson, 2014). The homeless population of the country is growing at an alarming rate. The woman, children and aged persons mostly becomes homeless in Australia. The homeless people of the country are mainly found in the cities of Sydney, Perth, Melbourne and Brisbane. The homeless people do not get have any permanent houses to live in (Wright, 2014). The homelessness in the country is accompanied with the poverty of the country as well. The homeless people also do not have any safety and security of their lives. According to 2011 census statistics, approximately 105,237 people of the country are experiencing this problem of homelessness. This means that approximately 1 in 200 people of the country Australia are homeless (Wallace et al., 2014). The figure has been increased by 17% from the census of 2006 population. There are six main categories of the people who are becoming homeless. The person, who dwells in improvised tents and other settlement areas, overcrowded lodging places, people staying with other families’ falls under the homeless categories (Zufferey & Chung, 2015). Among the estimate of the number of people who are becoming homeless, about 56 percent of the population is male and the remaining 44 percent are females. The Government has taken a lot of initiative to eradicate this problem of homelessness. The Government has raised funds for this homeless people and tried to build shelter for the homeless people (Cebulla, 2016).
The homeless statistical figures state that there are will be 105000. The following pie diagram has been drawn by taking the rate of homelessness of the people of the country. There are six main reasons of homelessness as has been pointed out by the figure. The majority of the persons who are homeless dwell in the places that are overcrowded. There are a few main reasons of homelessness. The reasons for homelessness includes poverty, unemployment, lack of proper domestic houses, poor physical health, drug and alcohol consumption, gambling, domestic violence and others. All this reasons for homelessness needs to be investigated for the cause of homelessness in Australia. However, the domestic violence, mental illness and family instability can be considered as a reason of drug and alcohol uses of the people.
Figure: Pie diagram showing reasons for homelessness
(Source: Created by author)
The following table gives the bar diagram of the peoples who are homeless according to age.
Figure: Bar diagram of homeless peoples
(Source: Created by author)
The above bar diagram has been constructed by classifying the homeless people according to their respective ages. The blue bars represent the homeless people in the year 2001; the red diagram the homeless people in the year 2006 and the green diagram represent the persons in the year 2011. The population in the year 2011 has been increased to a great extent. Therefore, the number of homeless people in the country is increasing over the years.
The analysis of the homelessness people in Australia needs to be carried out. In order to carry out the analysis, data regarding several variables needs to be calculated. The data needs to be collected about the number of homeless people, the total population of homeless people and others. A dataset of about five to ten years needs to be collected. The analysis of the patterns of the data will make one understand the growing cases o homeless population in the country. As the population of the country increases, the number of homeless people will also increase. There are also different reasons for homelessness. The data has to be collected along with the reasons with of the homelessness. The next step would be the analysis of the data. The data needs to be analyzed using different statistical techniques. The data needs to be collected over the years. Therefore, the data is a time series data. The different time series model can e used for the analysis of the data. The future values of homelessness can be predicted with the help of the fitted tie series model.
Conclusion:
The report gives an idea about the growing population of the country Australia and the growing problems of homelessness in the country. The homelessness in Australia is a major problem in the modern days. The figures and statistics show that the homeless people in Australia have been increased in the year 2011. The recommendations that follow from the study are:
1. The linear model has been fitted for studying the growth of population and the growth and the migration rate. The data about migration and growth are however not linear. Therefore, it is advisable to use a polynomial model instead of general linear model.
2. There is a scope of further study from this research are. The reasons for homelessness in Australia have not been studied for the purpose. Therefore, it is advisable to study the statistics about the reasons for homelessness.
References:
Abs.gov.au (2017). Abs.gov.au. Retrieved 18 January 2017, from https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/0/BCDDE4F49C8A3D1ECA257B8F00126F77?Opendocument
Ahlburg, D. A., Kelley, A. C., & Mason, K. O. (Eds.). (2013). The impact of population growth on well-being in developing countries. Springer Science & Business Media.
Birrell, B. (2014). The outlook for population growth in Australia. Sustainable Futures: Linking Population, Resources and the Environment, 25.
Cebulla, A. (2016). Learning in a rich country: the normalisation of homelessness among apprentices in Australia. Journal of Youth Studies, 1-16.
Chamberlain, C., Johnson, G., & Robinson, C. (Eds.). (2014). Homelessness in Australia. UNSW Press.
Coale, A. J., & Hoover, E. M. (2015). Population growth and economic development. Princeton University Press.
Payne, J., Macgregor, S., & McDonald, H. (2015). Homelessness and housing stress among police detainees: Results from the DUMA program. Trends and Issues in Crime and Criminal Justice, (492), 1.
Toloo, G. S., Hu, W., FitzGerald, G., Aitken, P., & Tong, S. (2015). Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios. Scientific reports, 5.
Wallace, V., Graham, D., Selway, D., Kelly, T., & Howe, E. (2014). Indigenous Women’s Homelessness in Far North And North West QLD: toward better outcomes.
Williams, A. N. (2013, June). A new population curve for prehistoric Australia. In Proc. R. Soc. B (Vol. 280, No. 1761, p. 20130486). The Royal Society.
Wilson, T. (2015). The demographic constraints on future population growth in regional Australia. Australian Geographer, 46(1), 91-111.
Wright, D. (2014). The sexual health stories of young people experiencing homelessness.
Zufferey, C., & Chung, D. (2015). ‘Red dust homelessness’: Housing, home and homelessness in remote Australia. Journal of Rural Studies, 41, 13-22.
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