1. Why is it important to limit global temperature changes to below 2°C warming?
2. Is the COP21 in Paris considered a success or a failure? Explain your answer?
3. Compare their INDCs with respect to: commitments to reduce carbon emissions, forestry protection energy footprint, and technological support?
4. In your opinion, do you think that these IDNCs will be effective in controlling climate change Why or why not?
1. The mark of 2C depicts that global temperatures has risen by 2 degree centigrade that is above the pre-industrial average value. This is the benchmark value that the scientists figured out. If the temperature is rising above the two degree centigrade then it would have a dangerous impact on the climate (12). Scientists suggest that above the temperature of 2 degree the effect caused due to global warming would be irreversible. The warmer the earth becomes the range of the earth climate would be deviating out from the natural range of the climate (13). The effects of the temperatures going above 2 degree centigrade are as follows:
The immediate effect of global warming is increase in the temperatures globally. In the last 100 years the average global temperature has increased above 0.8 degree Celsius according to the report specified by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (3). The recording begins at the year in 1895 and the hottest temperature was recorded in the year 2012. It was recorded as the 10th warmest year; such is the effect of global warming. Extreme condition of the weather is also responsible for global warming (9). The climatic changes cause the migration of jet stream to the south. This results in bringing the cold Arctic air. Therefore, some states are having a cold snap all of a sudden even when the trend of global warming prevails. Global warming also leads to the extreme weather that might be hot and cold. The area of snow covered in the States has steadily decreased and the average temperature of permafrost has grown warmer. The global warming is the most dramatic effects are the reduction in Arctic sea ice (11). The project analyses show that the Arctic Sea would be free of ice during the summer months. The most harmful effect of global warming is glacial retreat.
The other most harmful effect is the acidification of the ocean and the increasing of the sea levels. The sea levels have risen above 8 inches in 1870. The rate of increasing the sea levels has affected the coastal areas. As the level of Carbon Dioxide increases the ocean absorbing the CO2 increases the acidity of sea water. This increases the fatality of sea animals (10). Global Warming led to the initiation of heat wave that is dangerous, torrential rain and flooding, damaging coral reefs and shifting species that are been discussed below.
The points are discussed in details below:
Dangerous Heat Wave: Global warming caused due to the activity of humans. This global warming has a strong impact like dangerous heat wave that might kill the people (3). The heat wave that has already hit in the continent of Europe in the year of 2003 killed around 27000 people and breaks the record of human fatalities caused by nature. The heat also had effect like drought and wildfire that destroyed the agriculture and the European economy faced a deficit of 14.7 billion dollar (4).
Torrential Rain and Flooding: The available information shows that due to global warming the intensity of precipitation increase that lead to the torrential rainfall and eventually flooding in the year of 1999 (5). Venezuela faced such a flooding in that year followed by massive landslides and flooding the killed approx 30000 people
Damage to Coral Reefs: In the last 25 years world have seen the events of bleaching of coral that had led to the death of the coral reefs. The largest bleaching was recorded in the year of 1997 that lead to the death of 16% of coral reef globally and also includes the death of old coral reefs.
Shifting Species: On and around 1400 species starting from fishes to mammals are migrating to the higher altitudes for the extreme temperature condition due to global warming. This causes disturbances in ecological changes and the species at the higher altitude increases that increases the competition for survival.
2. The purpose of meeting is to assess the progress of the nations in the field of change in climate and the agreements are negotiated with the help of setting the goals to reduce the emissions of the greenhouse gas, which is solely responsible for driving the change in climate. The previous meetings like COP3 in Kyoto, Japan that generated the Montreal Action Plan and COP 15 in Copenhagen, Denmark faced a large failure as the agreement of the binding was not reached.
The goal of COP 21 was held for keeping the global warming below 2 degree centigrade as the scientists marked that as the threshold value. The goal is too difficult to achieved as the planet has already been heated by 0.85 degree centigrade. Therefore to reduce the warming of the planet below 2 degree centigrade it requires a significant minimization of the reduction of green house gases (14).
The success of COP 21 is achievable only if the nations adapt the agreement on the field of legal binding that they would take significant steps in minimizing the emission of carbon gases and have an aim to keep the temperature below the threshold limit of 2 degree centigrade. The negotiation in COP 21 in Paris apart from having an aim of keeping the temperature rise below 2 degree centigrade also focuses on the financial and economical aspect. The meeting held previously had committed an amount of 100 billion dollar per year from the developed countries to help the developing nations for building a sustainable development. The failure and success of the COP21 would be very much dependent on the above issues.
COP 21 helped to bring the confidence back in the process of UN after the failure of COP 11 IN Copenhagen. The commentators state that COP 21 has a diplomatic success. It involves all the parties for the first time as all the people from the industry to the low income has taken an oath for working together in reducing the carbon emission (14).
There are several other issues that are been the point of criticism. The questions arise with the backbone of the agreement. The areas of concern like keeping the value of temperature rise below 2 degree. Politics has also played a major role in the decision regarding the sustainable development (15). Therefore the deal appears as the strong call taken by the scientist to reduce carbon emission and the politics of the country on the other hand that might not lead to the emission of carbon gases as they use the source as fossil fuel.
Therefore, the COP 21 on the overall view has achieved the greater percentage of success than failure. The above overview suggested that COP21 is not at all a failure like COP 15 in Copenhagen. COP 21 also implemented that the report of INDCS should be submitted every five years which will help to keep the track of every country’s contribution for restricting the temperature rise up to 2degree centigrade.
Paris Agreement deserves succession as it sounded substantive foundation mainly for the climate change in the international ground. COP21 has been a success and turned out to be turning point for claiming the parties, observers, substantial, activists and many new outlets. The succession in Paris provided political, domestic capital that helps in increasing the chance for the government for implementing the commitments.
The contents of the agreement was heavily negotiated, the commitment of each of the parties were being ignored. In recent times, the UNFCCC synthesized INDC that got estimated for amount almost 3 degree warming by the end of the century.
In most of the commitments it is seen clearly that, any business large or small or localized or globalised, the strong movement of the climate. Paris agreement focuses on the advancement of the technology by transferring the technology at different stages.
For moving to the zero emission economy, all the participant countries must take part for trhe need to change. However, recent study by the Climate-KIC study, major companies are not at all confident to be the part for the change. We still need to understand the opportunities for changing of the climate that it creates. Every country must need to be aware of the impact of the climate change.
|
Countries |
Commitments to reduce carbon emissions |
Forestry Protection |
Technological Support |
|
|
Myanmar |
The country pledged to reduce the carbon emission by 16% (10) |
The deforestation action taken Myanmar to preserve the forest is 45% of the total land. |
The energy footprints are reduced by 18% by having control on different types of pollution by Myanmar. |
16% of the technology support is obtained by the country. |
|
Thailand |
The emission of green house gas is only 0.84% in this country. In COP 21 the country has decided and pledges to reduce the carbon emission by 20%. |
The forest reservation is 21% with implementing the plan of deforestation. |
The energy foot print reduced is by 23% by Thailand. |
11% of technology support is obtained by the country. |
|
Indonesia |
Indonesia pledged to reduce the emission by 26% by their own and with the support of the international countries they will reduce the carbon emission by 41%. The pledge taken by the country for carbon emission is more by Indonesia then Thailand and ultimately Myanmar. |
The forest reservation is 21% with implementing the plan of deforestation. |
The energy footprint is reduced by 25% by Indonesia. The study showed that the minimization of energy footprint |
Technological support obtained is 17% |
Commitment to Reduce Carbon Emissions: In regard to the field of reducing carbon emissions Myanmar has pledged to reduce the carbon emission by 16%. The socioeconomic development in this country will certainly increase the demand for the services, product, and development of infrastructure in the field of energy, industry and environmental resources that increase the emission of Green House Gas. The country commits the change in mitigation of climatic change by correctly balancing the development of socio economic structure and the environmental sustainability.
Thailand total emission from 1990 to 2012 is 0.75%. Thailand pledged for reducing the GHG emissions from 7 to 20% by 2020 below Business as Usual in the sector of energy and transport (10). They have already achieved 4% of GHG emission reduction and the project of BAU is attempting to reduce the emission by 7% to 20%. 72% of the electricity is generated using natural gas in Thailand. Alternative Energy Development Plan is planning to achieve a target of 20% of the power generation within 2036. Therefore, Thailand will contribute a lot in reducing the carbon emission (10).
Indonesia pledged to reduce the carbon emission by 26% by the own ability of the country. INDC reports also said that the country has the capability to reduce the emission with the help of other developed countries to a percentage of 41%. The recent level of emission assessment shows that the unconditional target of reducing the carbon emission by 29%. The low carbon future is ensured by implementing certain regulations as well as actions that could regulate the carbon emission.
Indonesia has done best in terms of reducing the carbon emission as they have got the support from the developed country.
Forestry Protection: The rate of deforestation is decreased so the contribution for mitigation is significant. The natural forest is maintained and preserved in order to have biodiversity and great ecosystems in Myanmar.
The forest protection is done by prohibiting the primary forest and peat lands in Thailand (9). As the country is located in the tropical peninsula therefore it has huge risks in facing risk due to changes in climate.
The forestry protection is 21% in Indonesia. The study showed that Myanmar has implemented the forest protector plan. The National Forestry Plan was implemented in 2001 and the Biodiversity Strategic Plan was implemented in 2013 that made Myanmar more successful in the field of Forestry Protection (17).
Myanmar showed success in terms of forestry protection.
Energy Footprints:
The increasing rate of GHG emissions by reducing the air pollution is been adapted by Myanmar. The policies like National Transport plan and National Plan of Implementation on Transport sector are developed and will be implemented.
Energy footprints have been the biggest issue in the development of Thailand. The power generation is heavily dependent on the imported crude oil. The country has shifted the power generation to the alternative renewal energy sources that have eliminated the risk of energy footprints.
The country has implemented mixed policies for the energy with 23 % of energy resources coming from renewable energy resources. The implementing of the renewable sources helped Indonesia to reduce carbon emission by reducing the use of coal for power generation to some extent.
However, Indonesia is leading in term of reducing carbon emission (11).
Technology Support:
The transfer of Environmentally Sound Technologies in the form of renewable energy and energy efficiencies technologies that helps in technology of flood control and technologies of early warning that incorporates the transfer of skill in Myanmar.
The technological support is a big barrier for Thailand. The country has certain barrier for the implementations of Technology as it has high cost of installing and the economic structure of the country is not that stable.
The technological support for the country is not that stable in Indonesia. The technological assistance as well as the fund is taken from the developed countries.
The study shows that Indonesia is having a little good technological support as they are already getting help from the developed countries.
bThe INDC implementation would be successful for reducing the emission. The reason is that all the developed countries and the developing countries are working together for the global threat that has been taking place. Therefore the helping and the support from the developed countries towards the developing countries would be beneficial largely. Moreover, the actions and the plans as well as the regulations that the countries are taking in order to reduce carbon emission is good. The fact of political issues is a place of concern. Therefore, every country should be sure that they should not create certain emissions that are dangerous for the world. INDC has also implemented the percentage that each country has decided to contribute for restricting the rise of temperature by 2 degree centigrade (11). Therefore, COP 21 has played a major role in getting hold of all the countries whether developed or undeveloped. The comparative study provided by INDC gives information to all the countries that which country is successful in implementing the mitigation plan.
COP 21 has incorporated the review system for all the countries in a span of five years for aiming to lower the carbon emission. All the respective countries committed for contributing to the sake of the agreement. The financial support of 100 billion dollars is been provided within 2020 for the support required to the developing countries (12). Therefore, proper funding provided to the countries will help them in effective management of the climate.
However, the agreement has certain major drawbacks. The appropriate implementing mechanism lacked in the agreement of COP 21. The agreement is one of the major steps taken for dealing with the climatic challenges and therefore, INDC is successful as the initial step for restricting the change in climate.
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