The Issues
The first political opinion issue is the party of registration that Americans are affiliated with. This relates to interviews that were done pre-election regardless of method employed in information acquisition. The variable id is V161019 and the weight associated with pre-election interview variables is V160101. The interviewee was presented with five response option when asked about their party of registration. These five options are: Democratic Party, Republican Party, none or independent, and other. According to the tabulation results 46.1% align with Democratic Party, 31% are faithful to Republican Party, 21.9% has no affiliation or they are independent, and 0.9% are registered with other parties. The majority of interviewees prior to the 2016 elections are democrats which indicate a good political backing for presidential candidates in the Democratic Party(Ansolabehere and Hersh). The second largest affiliation group is that of republican supporters.
It is however important to note that there is considerably larger difference of 15.1% between the Democratic Party supporters and Republican Party supporters. This means that if an election was to be held at the time of the interviews the Democratic Party’s presidential candidate would beat his Republican opponent by a margin of 15.1%. It is also vital to not that the number of respondents who indicated they were not registered with any political party is considerably high at 21%. This can be interpreted to mean that this niche of voters is still undecided on who to vote for or they have mixed opinions with regard to both Republican and Democratic political ideologies. Lastly, only a very small group of interviews indicated they had registered with other parties other than Republican and Democratic parties.
The second political issue is whether the participant being interviewed voted for president in 2012. The interviewees were asked to specify whether they voted for Barrack Obama in the 2012 elections. Their responses were limited to a yes or no answer; yes if the person voted for Barrack Obama in the 2012 elections, and no if the individual did not vote for Barrack Obama to be president (he/she may have voted for other candidates in the presidential run). The variable id for this issue is V161005, and since this information was collected prior to the 2016 election the weight variable is V160101. According to the data analysis results presented below, 69.1% of all respondents indicated that they voted for Barrack Obama, while 30.9% of the interviewees voted for another presidential candidate or failed to partake in the presidential election exercise.
Out of the 30.9% it is possible that some individuals did not vote for the president because they were underage at the time or they were barred from taking part in the whole election exercise because of personal hindrances(Goerres). The summary statistics can be ignored because they do not provide any helpful information when dealing with categorical variables. The stacked bar chart does however provide a clear representation of people’s responses with regard to whether or not they voted for the president in 2012. The number of valid cases or data values greatly outweighs the missing values or invalid figures making the information presented above very credible. The results can also be synthesized to mean that during the 2012 election 69.1% of all voters were aligned with the Democratic Party. Inferences can be made from this information to forecast that a significant number of these supporters would still voter under the Democratic Party umbrella during the 2016 election.
The third political opinion issue is with regard to whom the participant voted for president in the 2016 election. This relates to interviewee data collected after the 2016 elections; as such the individuals are presented with an array of responses that allows them to select the choose that aligns to their presidential candidate. Some of the response options are tailored to those interviewees who are unwilling to state who they voted for, or did not vote for a presidential candidate. The variable id for this issue is V162034A and the accompanying post election weight variable is V160102. The results indicate that a majority of respondents voted for Hillary Clinton (48.8%); while, 44% of all interviewees voted for Donald Trump to be the next president. The participants who voted for Gary Johnson were only 4.1% and those who opted for Jill Steiin were 1.3%. 1.4% of the participants indicated they voted for other candidates who were not specified in the questionnaire. 0.3% did not indicate who they voted for personal reasons.
The response statistics do align with election results because the majority vote went to Hillary Clinton but she however missed out on the Electoral College majority vote. None of the participant interviewed after the 2016 election failed to vote for a presidential candidate; this supported by the 0% on the number of people who failed to vote for any of the candidates. Similar to the prior two issue assessments the summary statistics should be ignored because the assessment variables are categorical. The column bar graph shows that the number of participants who voted for Hillary and Trump were almost the same; since, there is no easy way of telling the difference between the votes cast for each candidate just by looking at the chart. The validity of the results is good and this is investigated by comparing the data used and omitted i.e. the number of valid cases compared to cases that were excluded by weight and invalid codes.
The demographic variables used in the assessments are age group, state region, sexual orientation, and location in FIPS states. For issues 1 and 2 the demographic variables employed were age group, state region, and sexual orientation. While the demographic variables that were employed for issue 3 were age group, state region, and location in FIPS states. The reason why similar variables were not used for all issues is because there were only two demographic variables that catered for pre and post data; all the other demographic variables either catered to pre or post election data separately. We can therefore assess the distribution of the three issues mentions earlier with regard to the demographic variables as follows:
The behaviour of individuals with regard to political matters differs with age-groups. For instance, the turnout during election events is normally higher amongst older generations. As such, researchers believe that older people are more inclined to vote regardless of gender and race. Variations in electoral process requirements and political stability do influence the voting patterns within age groups(Richman, Chattha and Earnest). In spite of this the number of older votes is always relatively higher than that of young individuals. Let’s evaluate how age group as a control variable influences political issues 1, 2, and 3. Illustration 1 represents the party of registration information for people in different age-groups. There are four age groups: 18-24; 25-39; 40-59; 60-Older. For the frequency distribution table it is clear that Democrats are the majority across all age groups. It is important to note that the young generation has a higher preference for independence compared to being members of the Republican Party. While the reverse is true for the older generation; there are more republicans than none party affiliated individuals for age groups 40-59 and 60-Older. Illustration 2 indicates people who voted for president in 2012 with regard to age groups.
From the frequency distribution table 75.7% of all individuals in the age group 18-24 did not vote in the 2012 presidential elections. This could as a result of majority of them being underage or not having an interest in political matters. For the other three age groups majority of the participants voted. The level of participation in voting increases as the age of the participants increases. As such, the highest level of participant in presidential voting with regard to age group was amongst the individuals in the range of 60 or Older with 86.1%. Illustration 3 relates to who the participants vote for president in 2016 elections with regard to age groups. According to the results majority of the individuals in the age groups 18-24 and 25-39 voted for Hillary Clinton. And the remaining 33.7% of the participants in these age groups voted for Donald Trump. An almost equal number of participants in the age group 40-59 voted for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Majority of the interviewees in age-group 60-Older voted for Donald Trump however the magnitude difference between those who vote for either Clinton or trump was relatively low at 5.6%. It is also important to note that a significant portion of respondents in the age group 25-39 voted for other candidates besides Hillary and Trump.
It is well understood that state region has a significant influence on political affiliation. This is because of societal pressure on which party they consider to be most beneficial to the people of that region and the sense of pride that comes from have a presidential candidate from their region(Gerber, Green and Larimer). As such, people feel more inclined to vote for a person from their own State Region. Illustration 4 showcases the parties that interviewees registered under, with regard to State regions. There are five state regions namely Northeast, Midwest, South, West, and Pacific. From the tabulation results, majority of participants from the Northeast, South, and Pacific are Democratic Party supporter; while those from the Midwest and West regions are predominantly Republican Party supporters. Across all regions there are healthy proportions of individuals who have no political party affiliations or consider themselves independent. Illustration 5 demonstrates whether participants voted for president in 2012 or not with homage to state region. The findings indicate that majority of all participants across all five regions voted for president in 2012. The two regions with highest proportion of individuals who voted for president are Northeast and Midwest. The two regions with the greatest number of participants who did not vote are South and West state regions. The stack bar graph provides a clear representation of the voting decision of interviewees with regard to state regions. Illustration 6 indicates whom participants voted for president in the 2016 election with focus on state regions. Majority of the participants from Northeast and Pacific voted for Hillary. While, a majority of participant from the Midwest, South and West voted for Donald Trump. Gary and Jill got a considerable percentage of the votes cast in West and Pacific state regions respectively. Northeast had the highest percentage of people who refused to reveal who they voted for in the 2016 presidential elections.
The participation of Straight and LGBT people in the election has been a topic of interest for many people(Bellucci and Heath). According to voting records, more than 80% of LGBT people participate in election; with only 45 to 50% of straight individuals taking part the elections. Heterosexual individuals do constitute the majority of voters during election but their voter turnout levels are significant low compared to those of LGBT members(Perez). Illustration 7 indicates the part registration information with regard to sexual orientation, Majority of homosexual and bisexual individuals are democrats with a significant proportion of them having no party affiliation Illustration8 indicate whether the participant voted for president in 2012. Majority of all individuals across the three sexual orientation parameters voted for president in the 2012 elections.
This variable only applies with regard to the person a participant voted for in 2016. Looking at Illustration 9, it is evident there are states either Hillary or Donald dominated. For example 92% of the votes cast in Washington DC went to Hillary Clinton and 100% of all votes cast in Alaska went to Donald Trump. This means that these individuals had voter stronghold. Donald seems to have more voter strongholds but the overall distribution indicates that he does not have the overall support of the American people.
The great reason as to why the interviewee voted for Hillary Clinton was because of her Christian values that transcend any of the party’s modern conservative ideologies. Secondly, the interviewee felt that Hillary was the better option simply because she was not in any shape or form an extension of Donald Trump. Even thou Hillary Clinton has her own pitfalls; those of her prime presidential rival Donald significantly outweighed her own in the eyes of the interviewee. The interviewee has her reservations when it comes to Hillary especially with regard to abortion and gay marriage. Hillary is a well know pro-choice and pro-gay marriage candidate and this did not settle well with the interviewee considering she is a devoted Christian. As such, the interviewee believes that marriage is a holy union that is only to be entered into between a man and a woman. Secondly, the interviewee considers abortion and abomination before God and a selfish act done to dispense away with parental responsibilities. With this in mind it seems that the interview would have chosen to go with Donald Trump. However, due to the lack of respect for non-Americans and women, the interviewee felt compelled to stick with Hillary.
In addition, as a middle-class income earner the interviewee felt that the tax changes proposed by the Trump campaign leaders seemed to oppress the less fortunate and favour the wealthy members of society. Moreover, Hillary is more qualified to be president compared to Donald with regard to the two individual’s personal experiences with politics and public affairs. The interviewee feels that Clinton will be able to pick off where Obama left off and continue development and make amendments where necessary. The fact that Hillary has been in the political scene ever since her husband Bill Clinton become president; indicates that she has an informed idea of what it takes to be president. On the other hand, Trump proposes will greatly undermine key development, healthcare, and international diplomacy incentives that were put in place by the Obama administration. Lastly, the interviewee feels that Trump is a people pleaser who enjoys idol worship and being cheered by American without internalizing the consequences of his promises and actual work that needs to be put in for those ideas to become reality.
The interviewee feels that Donald trump is the driving force that United States of America needs to realize economic growth and debt reduction. Moreover, the interviewee believes that Donald Trump has the means, drive, and perseverance to reshape the country’s institutions, infrastructure, and economic situation. Hilary Clinton according to the interviewee is capable individuals with years of achievement; but, the modern world demands a leader that is dynamic and tested capable of making the necessary step to better the lives of all Americans. There are some views shared by Donald Trump that the interviewee does not necessary agree with. For instance, the interviewee agrees that the country needs to enforce border control and mitigate immigration. He however does not agree with the way Donald Trump plans to go about. The interviewee feels that with time the Trump government will device feasible solutions once elected. Accordingly, the trump government will work towards the improvement of the earning capability of low-class citizen through the development of numerous job platforms. To a fair degree the interviewee indicated to a small extent he was voting for Trump simply because it was what was expected of him by his family.
On the flipside of that coin, the fact that Hillary has been associated with major political scandal hinders the interviewee from taking a liking to her ideas or development agendas. Donald Trump’s message of developing domestic industries by controlling international brands in US markets is chief amongst the reasons the interviewee considers Trump to be the right leader. Most people are optimistic that the country’s economy will recover as soon as person with business success and experience takes over administration. This opinion is also shared by the interviewee, who describes the current debt crisis as a child of excess borrowing and poor investment. The interviewee expressed that he is an observant Seventh Day Adventist; and as such, he will not condone gay-marriage and abortion. As such, he choose to align himself with Donald Trump on matters of same-sex marriages and termination of unwanted pregnancies. Nevertheless, the interviewee confessed that voting for Donald Trump was championing for the lesser “evil” indicating that he was neither fond of Hillary nor Trump.
The main reason why Trump won the election was because he got the majority vote in the Electoral College. In spite of the fact that Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton he got the US presidency because he won the votes of the Electoral College(Abutu and Abubakar). In fact, Donald won 306 of the 582 Electoral College votes this means according to the US constitution the decision of the Electoral College trumps that of the popular vote; thus making Donald Trump the president of the United States of America. The electoral votes and turnout in the states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania completely sealed Hillary’s fate as 80% of the support was offered to Donald Trump. Another reason that saw Donald Trump win was the cross party voting of US citizens. According to reports released by ANES, More registered Democrats voted for Trump compared to the number of registered Republicans who voted for Hillary. As the Democrat supporters shifted camp they allowed for Donald Trump to get more votes than Hillary especially in states like Wisconsin(Abutu and Abubakar).
References
Abutu, Odoh Patrick and Salisu Abubakar. “2016 United States of America’spresidential Election: Reasons Why Donald Trump Won.” IOSR Journal of Research & Method in Education VII.2 (2017): 80-90.
Ansolabehere, Stephen and Eitan Hersh. “Gender, Race, Age and Voting: A Research Note.” Politics and Governance I.2 (2013): 1-6.
Bellucci, Paolo and Oliver Heath. “The Structure of Party-Organization Linkages and the Electoral Strength of Cleavages in Italy, 1963–2008.” Centre for the Study of Political Change (2016): 1-53.
Gerber, Alan S., Donald P. Green and Christopher W. Larimer. “Social Pressure and Voter Turnout: Evidence from a Large-Scale Field Experiment.” American Political Science Review CII.1 (2008).
Goerres, Achim. “Why are Older People More Likely to Vote? The Impact of Ageing on Electoral Turnout in Europe.” BJPIR 9 (2008): 90–121.
Perez, Vanessa M. “Political Participation of LGBT Americans.” Project Vote: Research Memo (2014): 1-12.
Richman, Jesse T., Gulshan A. Chattha and David C. Earnest. “Do non-citizens vote in U.S. elections?” Electoral Studies (2014): 149-157.
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