This research paper has aimed to examine the probable impact of Brexit on the African union especially Nigeria. United Kingdom has been responsible for developing an effective trade relationship with European Union which has been defined the Cotonou agreement. African Nations like Nigeria are dependent on this trade relationship and there are certain consequences that they will have to face due to Brexit. The controversial discussion of the impact of Brexit on the African nations had led to the development of the grim predictions from the sceptics. As stated by Kohnert (2018), the commonwealth states of Africa will face will face grave issues due to Britain’s exit from the European Union. However, it will take time to fully understand the impact of Brexit on the African nations and unless Britain makes their exit in March of 2019, every theory and prediction is tentative in nature.
The African business community were aware of the fact that Brexit will have a deep impact on the growth of the economy. United Kingdom has been instrumental in supporting development and facilitate aid for all the African nations (Adler-Nissen, Galpin and Rosamond 2017). Moreover, when the United Kingdom had led the presidency of G8, many pro African programs were implemented which could not have been possible if other nations were presiding as they are more inward looking.
Brexit is a term defining the exit of Britain from the European Union. A referendum was held where every citizen were allowed to participate where they could vote for or against the exit of Britain. The motion of leaving the European Union won by a vote of 51.9% out of the 71.8% of the total population being the participants. In breaking down the result it was seen that England and Wales voted for Brexit. On the contrary, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted against Brexit and wanted to stay in the European Union. European Union is the partnership formed between 28 countries in Europe based on political and economic relations (Farrell and Newman 2017). The formation of the European Union facilitated in developing a single market which allowed free trade and movement of people from one country to another country within Europe. However, for a smooth transition, both the parties have proposed 21 months of time to re-establish the new relationship.
Brexit has already affected the economy of the country. The corporate organizations feared that Brexit would impact the trade relations between European Union and United Kingdom. However, the Prime Minister had promised the business community that Brexit would not affect the free trade between the countries but the negotiation has fallen short. This is a big area of concern for the organizations in United Kingdom which will have a huge impact on the business of the organizations (Sampson 2017). The business leaders have been calling for a second vote which shows the grave impact Brexit will have on United Kingdom’s economy which will in turn affect the economy of African Countries. Moreover, the most current likely scenario is the fact that Britain may have to leave the European Union without any proper deals. This means that free trade zone between United Kingdom and EU will be abolished, United Kingdom being the link between the African commonwealth nations and European Union, the trade relations are expected to more severe than expected.
United Kingdom has been one of the top importers of goods to Nigeria and companies like Shell has invested a huge sum of capital and owns one third of the oil produced in Nigeria. Nigeria is the largest producer of oil and natural gas in Africa but Brexit will led to the development of new trade rules and regulation which will highly affect the struggling economy of Nigeria. United Kingdom has used Nigeria as one of the most significant export markets in Africa. Moreover, United Kingdom has provided aid to Nigeria, even though it is not dependent on aid from foreign countries (Bradley and Helfer 2017). It is expected that will be shortfall in investment from United Kingdom in Nigeria and the shortage of funds may not be covered by the other countries in the European Union. United Kingdom has not only contributed to the economy but manages security for Nigeria and helped them deal with extremist. Therefore, the background of the study shows the significance of the relationship between United Kingdom and Nigeria. The relationship is not based on trade but also other factors so overall development of Nigeria will be hampered due to the abrupt change in the rules and regulations. Therefore, the study will aim to predict the possible future impacts on the Nigerian Economy due to the exit of Britain from the European. However, all the analysis will be tentative and may differ from the actual impact.
Brexit is short for Britain’s Exit which is from the European Union. Brexit was the initiation when the United Kingdom had a withdrawal from the European Union with a majority of 52% votes who were in support of the exit. The Article of the Treaty of European Union has been invoked by the government of United Kingdom on 29th March of 2017 (Hunt and Wheeler 2018).
There have various studies indicating the economic impact that Brexit has upon the United Kingdoms. Booth et al. (2015) proposes a detailed study which is model-based to show the impact that Brexit has on UK till the year 2030. The study states that from the time that UK would leave the European Union till the year 2030, UK would get a huge amount of time to change their own policies and arrangement regarding trade to forecast the effects that this withdrawal would have on them. The study presents four scenarios that might occur based on several variables. The first is the worst-case scenario which states that the UK does not take part in any negotiation with the EI regarding a new trade agreement and the FTA with the third countries would not change. This scenario will impact the GDP of the country which will suffer a fall of 2.2 percent (Busch and Matthes 2016). The second scenario is the mid-range FTA 1 scenario where the United Kingdom indulges in a negotiation about a FTA which will result in the loss of GDP of about 0.8 percent. The third scenario is the mid-range FTA 2 scenario which states that along with the FTA 1 agreement, UK would also indulge in a free trade with the other countries of the world. This scenario will contribute to a gain of GDP for the country of about 0.64 percent. The last scenario is the base case scenario which states that along with the FTA 2 scenario, UK will also introduce an approach of deregulation which will give an increase in the GDP of about 1.55 percent (Hunt and Wheeler 2018).
Kierzenkowski et al. (2016) further implies that the level of uncertainty which surround Brexit is the most important reason of the impact that is being caused on the economy of the United Kingdom. The growth that could take place in the UK is being held back due to the uncertainty that surrounds it and this has started to affect the trade relation with other countries as well. The main trade partner for UK has always been the EU which would be affected gravely once UK formally exists from the EU and this has been the topic of national unrest as this would mean the loss of competitive advantage for the United Kingdom. It would be hard for UK to negotiate a new agreement for trade with the European Union. Moreover, the existent trade relations between the United Kingdom and the European Union will rise to be a costly affair due to Brexit.
As stated by Adler-Nissen, Galpin and Rosamond (2017), Brexit will present both opportunities threats for the African nations at large. Brexit has provided the African nations with the opportunity of gaining more aid from Great Britain. On the contrary, Scott (2016) states that Brexit will pose more challenges than opportunities for the commonwealth nations in the country and it could increase resilience and ambiguity.
The commonwealth of nations consists of 19 of the 54 countries in Africa where South Africa and Nigeria hold the majority of the importance. The commonwealth countries have their say in the matter that would help grow their economy irrespective of their power and size on the economy. The current trade relations between UK and Africa shows only 9% of the foreign trade and UK is expected to improve the trade policies (Kohnert 2018). Liberalization and free trade are expected which will facilitate in shaping the economies in Africa. Moreover, United Kingdom has been the largest market for African exports and post Brexit liberal trade relations will facilitate in improving the trade relations and improving the growth of the economy. The trade relationship between Eu and African nations will continue even after the exit but the Britain’s share will have to be omitted. Yueh (2017) states that trade relationship between EU and African nations will expire in the year of 2020 and UK had a big role to play in establishing this relationship but the future remains uncertain due to Britain’s exit and Cotonou agreement will have to be renegotiated. As stated by Pareschi (2018), trade relations between EU and Africa set in the Cotonou agreement consist of controversial regional Economic Partnership Agreements which the different African nations will try to renegotiate. This may result in pulling out of the trade agreement and various countries like Tanzania and Nigeria have not signed the EPA agreements for protecting the domestic markets and nascent industries. Tanzania has not signed the ECA-EPA agreement due to the prevailing circumstances in the EU.
This shows that only 12 African nations have signed the EPA and 12 have not. The hard Brexit will result in African countries losing their access to the United Kingdom unless Bilateral terms are negotiated with the African nations. Po?o?ska-Kimunguyi and Kimunguyi (2017) states that renegotiation between the African nations and UK will be a contentious undertaking as the African nations will try to leverage Brexit to their advantage. However, the African nations are expected to affected highly due to the upcoming recession resulting from UK’s exit from European Union. Moreover, immediately after the Brexit, UK will cease any form of special trade relationship with African nations. UK will only aim to develop bilateral deals with those economies in Africa that will have positive impact on the economy in UK.
Kohnert (2018) states that post Brexit, the prime minister of the country Teressa May have announced that aid to the African nations will be reduced. However, the foreign direct investment is expected to increase where South Africa will be among the largest recipients. This means that the at the expense of the poor nations in Africa, UK will only invest in those countries and sectors that will prove to be beneficial to them in long run. The increase in FDI is due to the Compact with Africa initiative taken in G20 summit and many African nations have joined the CwA initiative. On the contrary, Dhingra et al. (2016) criticized the CwA to be biased and neglects the important issues for sustainable development in Africa. The first concern is the fact that the initiative neglects investment in education which is one of the primary factors for growth in any country. Secondly, it does not shed any light to G20 ‘s responsibility in generating unfavourable trade and investment policies that harms the trade environment in Africa. Thirdly, the environmental and social risks that are associated with the private investments are not addressed. Fourthly, the comprehensive development agenda implied by the UN has been disregarded in this agreement. This means that even though there will be increase in investment and growth of the private sector, it will be at the cost of the taxpayers and detriment poverty even more in those countries (Vines 2018). Finally, as UK companies own a large portion of natural resources in different countries will aim to renegotiate terms with the African nations independently neglecting the EU ethical restrictions which will lead to further aggravation of situation in the African nations.
This shows that the policies are aimed at improving the role of private financing in the British economy. Even though London has proposed to be the hub for free trading between UK and African nations, which is a method of channelling cash to former colonies in Africa. Kohnert (2018) states the London free trade is nothing but subsidization of private investment in Africa by the tax payers in Britain. This will result in aiding tax havens in the previous colonies and Britain has been on the top of the list of contributing to tax havens where off shore wealth concentration will have a lot of impact on United Kingdom. EU has blacklisted 17 havens which is done for tax avoidance by most of the countries. Britain’s support to these illegal activities will continue even after the Brexit which is expected to be reinforced.
The aid relationship between United Kingdom and Africa is dependent on the trade and financial policy post Brexit. London’s policy shows that they will aid they trade agreements are formed otherwise without trade agreements there will be no trade. Even though, it is essential for UK to spend 0.7% of their GNI on Aid, Britain’s contribution to aid in Africa is expected to decrease even further. There is ineffectiveness and mismanagement of aid which can be reinforced by the scandals of Oxfam and UK exit from EU may have a multiplier effect on aid. Hoekman et al. (2016) states that UK was able to maintain their prosperity, influence and balance by working through EU even though power has shifted from UK and EU. The depreciation of the pound Sterling is another major reason that there will be considerable amount of decrease in Aid to the African nations. This is because of the fact that depreciation in the currency will affect the GNI of the country due to the exit. Even though, London has made various commitments, looking at the economy it is difficult to fulfil the commitments as the forecasted growth of the economy is negative post Brexit. Moreover, under this situation, the government will be forced to spend their scares resource on domestic growth due to the political pressure.
European Union have contributed heavily maintaining peace and security of the nations in Africa and the African nations are dependent on the EU members for defence and security in Africa. Britain had claimed that they are the largest contributor to the defence policies and initiatives in EU which shows that there may be significant impact on security and defence. However, the records are contradictory which shows that Britain’s contribution to security and Defence was even less than Spain and France (Farrell and Newman 2017). Moreover, they contributed to only few of the missions in Africa and majority of the case France has taken the lead. This shows that Brexit’s impact on security operations in all parts of Africa will not be affected by much but UK and EU will have to reach an agreement to stem irregular migration and terrorist activities from Sahel and Maghreb countries.
There are plenty of opportunities for Both UK and Africa to renegotiate terms to provide benefits to each other. However, it is essential to identify and examine whether it is possible to develop a relationship of equal clientele among the countries. The main concern is whether Britain would agree to developing flexible trade rules and free trade relationship even though it may affect the economy of the country negatively or not (Kohnert 2018). The liberalisation of the grade relationship between the countries will increase the cost of trade agreements in the future but it is unlikely that there will be any improvement to the current trade strategies between the countries as they will have to concentrate currently on global competitors and partners. It is unlikely that UK and African nations will be able to develop win-win situations for the countries and Brexit will change the African integration efforts. Therefore, the best option for the nations in Africa especially the smaller ones is collective clientelism where concessions will be made of the non-trade issues such as non-comparable assets in exchange for protection and better access to the market.
Conclusion
This shows that the African nations will be affected highly due to the Brexit but the impact on the stronger African economies will be different than on the smaller African economies. Therefore, different countries in Africa will have to identify ways to protect their interest and gain as much as possible from the Brexit. The different impacts on the African nations shows the how the Brexit will result in plenty of challenges for the African Nations where developing trade relations at unfair agreements seems the best opinion for the countries. However, the major issues like poverty will not be addressed at the expense of increase the foreign direct investment.
Research methodology is the systematic method of defining the frameworks for collecting and analysing raw data. It consists of the frameworks that establishes the basics of conducting the research and describes the designs, approaches and methods. The research methodology is chosen based on the goals and objectives set in the study. The different goals in a research are description of behaviours, prediction of one variable based on another variable and explanation of the cause and effect relationship between variables (Mackey and Gass 2015). In this current study, the main goal of the study is description of behaviours and understanding the cause and effect relationship so experimental method has been used. However, the study will not use quantitative method but qualitative methods will only be used to where only secondary data will be collected. Even though it has been proposed earlier than primary data collection will be used but it is difficult to find suitable respondents so in order to reduce the time period of the research, primary data collection will be used.
Research philosophy determines the ways in which the data about the phenomenon should be collected in the study. There are different beliefs and assumptions made in the study which defines the philosophy in the research. The different research philosophies in the study are positivism, realism, interpretivism and pragmatism (Hughes and Sharrock 2016). However, in this current study interpretivism is the chosen research philosophy which facilitates subjective analysis of data. Interpretivism is used for integration of human elements into the study. In interpretivism, different approaches are clubbed together such as hermeneutics, social construction and phenomenology. The focus of interest in this type of philosophy is unique, deviant and specific. This also facilitates analysis of the subject matter in great depth by using different relevant secondary sources of data.
The different types of research approach used in research are inductive, deductive and abductive approach. The deductive approach is used for testing the hypothesis where the discussed theories in the literature review will be verified. The inductive approach is used for developing new theories and generalisations. The abductive approach is used to address the shortcomings of the deductive and inductive approach (Stage and Manning 2015). However, in this study, the inductive approach is the chosen approach as it commences with observations and theories are developed based on the data analysed. The patterns in the collected data will be analysed to develop relevant theories and the direction of the study can be easily based on the observed phenomenon. However, this does not mean that existing theories cannot be used in the study and existing theories can be used to formulate the objective and research question.
There are generally two types of research design in business research and they are exploratory research and conclusive research. The choice between the qualitative and quantitative method for research is known as the research design. The conclusive research can be further divided into causal and descriptive research design which shows that description of behaviour and examining the casual changes is the main purpose of conducting conclusive research (Lewis 2015). On the other hand, exploratory research does not aim to provide relevant conclusion to the study and only explores the research topic. Therefore, solution to the existing issues is not generated in the study and in in-depth analysis of the data is conducted using the research. Exploratory research is also used in new issues where extensive research has not been conducted and the results are tentative. In this study, exploratory research design is the appropriate research design and facilitate in in depth analysis of secondary data.
The data has been collected from, secondary data sources which consists of peer reviewed journals, articles and web articles. The secondary data collected in the study will be developed into different themes where coding will be used for analysing the gathered content. Coding is the process of identifying the different theories within the collected data and use it effectively to reach relevant conclusions (Palinkas et al. 2015). Thematic analysis is the method of collecting data where different themes will be developed and open coding will be used to identify the relevant points and develop theories that are essential to the study. Axial coding will be used to analyse the data to develop the tentative theories. However, the major drawback of the study is the fact that no relevant conclusion may be drawn.
Sampling is the method of selecting sample population for the research and is used when the given population is too large it is difficult and cumbersome to calculate and analyze huge chunks of data. Sampling is used to decide the target population, the sampling frame and the sample size in the study. There are generally two types of sampling methods, one is probabilistic sampling and other is non-probabilistic sampling (Quinlan et al. 2019). Probabilistic sampling can be divided into simple random sampling, cluster sampling, systematic sampling and stratified sampling. Non-probabilistic sampling can be divided into convenience sampling, multi-stage sampling, quota sampling, snow ball sampling and purposive sampling (Csikszentmihalyi and Larson 2014.). However, in this study, non-probabilistic has been used to select the relevant articles, journals and web articles. Convenience sampling has been used in this study to select the articles that are relevant to the research and in this study 10 research papers have been used to collect relevant and 2 web articles have been for developing themes.
Reliability and validity are two most important aspect for the success of the research. However, gaining high reliable and valid data is quite tough in the research paper which is why the data collected may not provide valid results may deviate from the actual phenomenon. Moreover, as Brexit has not happened yet, every data is just a prediction and defines the possible impact and no concrete result can be obtained (LoBiondo-Wood and Haber 2014). In order to maintain the reliability and validity in the study, the data from journals and articles have been used to compare constantly the opinions of different authors.
The study has not used any plagiarised content and the data collected from different journals and articles have been properly cited. The results have not been exaggerated and no offensive language has been used in this research.
This chapter of the study will examine the impact of Brexit on the international relationship between United Kingdom and Nigeria. The findings will aim to analyse the impacts specific only to Nigeria and compare it constantly with the other companies. This chapter has developed different themes which will be responsible for portraying the impact of Brexit and post Brexit scenario.
The foreign direct investment in Nigeria is expected top increase if they agree to the trade relations with Britain. However, the market in Britain will not remain attractive enough for the Nigerian investors as they will not have access to the EU market. Therefore, it is more profitable for Nigeria to develop effective trade relationship with European Union. Brexit will have an effect on the economy and will cause depreciation of the currency in Britain so it will beneficial to diversify the trade relationship to remove Nigeria’s dependency on Britain (Alhajji 2017). The trade relations between EU and Africa set in the Cotonou agreement consist of controversial regional Economic Partnership Agreements which the different African nations will try to renegotiate. This may result in pulling out of the trade agreement and various countries like Tanzania and Nigeria have not signed the EPA agreements for protecting the domestic markets and nascent industries. Tanzania has not signed the ECA-EPA agreement due to the prevailing circumstances in the EU (Curran 2018). The major aim of Britain, post Brexit will be reviving their manufacturing sector bey selling their goods in the Nigerian market. However, the Nigerian government would prefer to protect their indigenous and nascent industries so the international relation between these two countries will be highly affected post Brexit and reaching an agreement in terms of trade policies will be complicated for both the nation due to the complex nature of situations in the present.
Nigeria has received considerable amount of aid from Britain in the past years but with Brexit there will be significant reduction in the GNI of the country which will reduce the aid but Nigeria is not dependent on aid from other countries (Curran 2018). In terms of security and defence aids, Brexit will not have much impact on Nigeria as most of the other EU members like France and Spain contribute to the operations in African countries to reduce terrorism.
Nigeria being one of the top exporters of oil in Africa, the decrease in oil prices all over the world has affected the economy of the country. The aftermath of Brexit has affected the oil prices which is the reason that developed countries are looking towards Asian countries like Iran for cheaper oil. The liberalisation of the grade relationship between the countries will increase the cost of trade agreements in the future but it is unlikely that there will be any improvement to the current trade strategies between the countries as they will have to concentrate currently on global competitors and partners (Alhajji 2017). It will quite difficult for Nigeria if they remain completely dependent on Britain and EU for foreign direct investments and will have to look for other countries for investments. The current situation is likely to have a hard Brexit which will result in no trade relationship with Britain so it is essential for Nigeria to look for other alternatives. However, Nigeria is expected to affected highly due to the upcoming recession resulting from UK’s exit from European Union. Moreover, immediately after the Brexit, UK will cease any form of special trade relationship with African nations. UK will only aim to develop bilateral deals with those economies in Africa that will have positive impact on the economy in UK. Moreover, as post Brexit the economy of UK will gradually shrink, the aid programs such as DFID programs will be highly affected. United Kingdom has been one of the top importers of goods to Nigeria and companies like Shell has invested a huge sum of capital and owns one third of the oil produced in Nigeria (Mold 2017). Nigeria is the largest producer of oil and natural gas in Africa but Brexit will lead to the development of new trade rules and regulation which will highly affect the struggling economy of Nigeria. This shows that oil industry will be highly affected by Brexit which in turn will affect the economy of the country.
Conclusion
The conclusion will link the objective of the study with the findings to provide recommendations. Britain’s decision to exit from the European Union has far greater implications for the country across foreign boundaries and is not limited to Europe. The hard exit will affect the second largest economy in Europe as they will not be able to maintain their trade relationship with European Union countries. The negotiation has failed miserably which has put majority of the organizations in deep though and wants to government to take a repoll. This shows that the organizations in UK will be slowly diversifying the portfolio to find lucrative investments.
The major implications of Brexit on the relationship between United Kingdom and Nigeria are impact on Foreign direct investment, oil prices and oil trade in Nigeria and capital investment. Brexit will have an effect on the economy and will cause depreciation of the currency in Britain so it will beneficial to diversify the trade relationship to remove Nigeria’s dependency on Britain. The trade relations between EU and Africa set in the Cotonou agreement consist of controversial regional Economic Partnership Agreements which the different African nations will try to renegotiate. Nigeria has received considerable amount of aid from Britain in the past years but with Brexit there will be significant reduction in the GNI of the country which will reduce the aid but Nigeria is not dependent on aid from other countries. The liberalisation of the grade relationship between the countries will increase the cost of trade agreements in the future but it is unlikely that there will be any improvement to the current trade strategies between the countries as they will have to concentrate currently on global competitors and partners. It will quite difficult for Nigeria if they remain completely dependent on Britain and EU for foreign direct investments and will have to look for other countries for investments. This shows that Nigeria will face two majors one is foreign direct investment and reducing in oil prices which will affect the GDP of the country as a whole.
Therefore, it is recommended that Nigeria will have to reduce their dependency on European Union and United Kingdom for better trade relations. They will need to develop an effective relationship with countries in Asia which are rapidly growing for support and invoke long term trade relationship. The oil prices are affecting the economy of the country so the Nigerian government needs to re-establish trade relationship with Great Britain but will have to capitalise on the given opportunities.
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