Change is possible, but it is not always easy to capture. Within a one-party ruled autocracy it is difficult to overcome challenges of systemic inequality as long as the system is not transformed (Dejene & Cochrane, 2018, p. 19). Therefore a shift in the domestic affairs of a state can cause external change. With a constructivist approach this paper aims to describe the current transformation in Ethiopia caused by a transition of power and its effect on foreign politics. Ethiopia’s international self-presentation will be analyzed in order to see how the domestic fair influences the external affairs.
In how far can a slight democratization explain the shift in foreign politics? To answer this question this paper will introduce the topic with a thematic overview about the recent changes in Ethiopia and the reason that enabled them. The paper is embedded in social constructivist frame which helps to stay narrow. While there are many interesting question to ask about Ethiopia’s current development, this paper aims to focus on the way Ethiopia changed its own understanding of itself in foreign politics.
This why in the second part via a qualitative content analysis of Embassy newsletter the foreign politics are going to be described as result of the slight democratization. If the social context and the interaction of political actors change, the ideas, and realities constructed by them will follow. Therefore if one can identify external change, a reason of it could be internal transformation towards fairer power structures.
Processes around the globe are often shaped by war and peace.
It is likely that during wartime a specific ideology develops that continue to influence the nation far beyond the end of the conflict. The current developments in Ethiopia can be seen as “a strong case how a rebel group’s wartime ideology has had fundamental effects on peacetime policies” (Aalen, 2019, p. 13). This “authoritarian peace” can be better understood with a constructivist approach, since it helps to become aware of how “any state identity in world politics is partly the product of the social practices that constitute that identify at home” (Hopf, 1998, p. 232). Therefore the case of Ethiopia helps to understand that the ideologies regimes established after a conflict are not stable but rather flexible and influenced by the national context (Aalen, 2019, p. 13) and while international relations change, they can also be transformed.
Since April 2018 the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has a new Prime Minister and experienced numerous of domestic changes. Many of the developments were always seen as inconceivably in country, but the new Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahemd solved the conflict with Eritrea, ended the state of emergency, liberalized the economy, assigned a new cabinet and apologized for the past (Weber, 2018, p. 1). At least these are the radical reforms in the domestic sphere (Fischer & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 194) that are described also by further academics (Aalen, 2019, p. 12, 14; Dejene & Cochrane, 2018, p. 1). Additionally, many scientists agree that these reforms go along with an enormous potential for a shift towards democratization but at the same time they are unsure and critical about the further development of Ethiopia, its real intentions and the willingness of the government and population to become inclusive (Weber, 2018, p. 3f; Fischer & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 205; Aalen, 2019, p. 12; Dejene & Cochrane, 2018, p. 20). It is essential to question these developments like it will be done later. But so far the background of the transition of power and the general situation in the Ethiopia need to be expounded. The identity of a state is shaped by their social context and therefore its historical development. [C]onstructivism treats identity as an empirical question [that needs] to be theorized within a historical context (Hopf, 1998, p. 221). These historical and cultural influences shape the meaning of reality (Barnett, 2017, p. 148), which is going to be explored.
Abiy Ahmed belongs to the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) (Weber, 2018, p. 1). The EPRDF is a party coalition out of four different parties that are oriented along the major ethnic identities in Ethiopia (Aalen, 2019, p.14) and dominated by the TPLF the representatives of the ethnic identity of the Tigary (Fisher & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 196). After the civil war in 1991 EPRDF was the victor and ever since the only party in the parliament (Freedom House, 2016). Their power is based on the ideology of revolution democracy and their politics are shaped by ethnic-based federalism (Aalen, 2019, p.2). Admittedly, in 2015 the domestic situation in Ethiopia was marked by protests and demonstration against the plans of the government (Fisher & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 200) and ethno-oriented policies that caused unsolved problems (Weber, 2018, p. 1; Fisher & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 205). During the protest many people died and (Aalen, 2019, p. 11) over one million people were displaced because of the ethnical conflicts (Weber, 2018, p.2). The government reached its limits and could not counter the dissatisfaction among the population (Dejene & Cocharne, 2018, p. 18). Following, in order to stabilize the country they implemented a national wide state of Emergency in October 2016 (Aalen, 2019, p. 11). The demand for change remained, and the “confrontational interactions between the government and the people escalated up until the resignation of former Prime Minister Hailemariam and the accession of Minister Abiy Ahmed” (Dejene & Cochrane, 2018, p. 20). It has to be remembered that Abiy remains a product of EPRDF (Aalen, 2019, p. 12), but while ever since the TPLF were most dominant within the cabinet, now for the first time somebody from the social identity of the Oromo has become Prime Minister. This and his multiethnic and religious background can be seen as a potential for a less ethno-oriented policy (Weber, 2018, p. 1).
Abiy calls for multiparty democratization (Fisher & Gebrewahd, 2018, p. 205) and fairer elections (Dejene & Cocharne, 2018, p. 20). The long-term development of Ethiopia is still unsure, but if one takes a look at democracy indexes like Polity IV Project, one can recognize a sign for the improvement within the country. While in 2017 Ethiopia scored -3 points and therefore was a closed anocarcy, in 2018 it has 2 points and changed to an open anocracy. This paper uses the Freedom House Index to demonstrate the slight shift towards democratization, since it enables to create a differentiated picture of the domestic situation in Ethiopia as it will be described later.
Human actions lead to stability as well as change, they are the key for transformation and show how the world is constructed (Barnett, 2017, p. 144). The current change in Ethiopia influences the identity of the state and its behavior. Identities are shaped by social practices and therefore its interests are framed by social structures (Hopf, 1998, p. 221). It is necessary to observe Ethiopia’s transformation, since constructivism assumes that the roots of ideas are in deeds and action (Onuf, 1989, p. 29). This mutual relation shows that also Ethiopia has to be seen as a result of its socio-political context. “Any state identity in world politics is partly the product of the social practices that constitute that identity at home” (Hopf, 1998, p. 232). These realities are socially constructed and so everything is taken for granted (Barnett, 2017, p. 148). The unexpected transition of power in Ethiopia shows that is essential to be open to alternative developments. Constructivism helps us to become aware of our limited perceptions and to become able to think about alternatives (Barnett, 2017, p.153). Abiy’s way of speaking differs a lot from his predecessor; he speaks about love, peace, and forgiveness and is able to mobilize people through emotions (Fisher & Gebrewadh, 2018, p. 204). He speaks about freedom; from a democratic perspective this is hard to combine with an authoritarian regime, but constructivism helps to understand different realties about democratic peace (Hopf, 1998, p. 231).
The power is still cumulated by the regime, but what is this power based on? The mobilization of the people becomes possible through the implementation of certain mentalities. In general mentalities and convictions are based on ideas, but if political actors have a considerable amount of power, their visions are even more affecting for the society (Finnemore & Sikkink, 2001, p. 398-410). The ideology promoted by the authoritarian party can be seen as a tool for control, which enables the continuance of power (Aalen, 2019, p.1). “The greater the legitimacy, the easier time they will have convincing others to cooperate with their politics” (Barnett, 2017, p. 149). This also helps to explain how ethno-social conflicts emerge and can be solved. Ethiopia’s conflicts are often socially constructed and fight along ethno-social identities (Weber, 2018, p. 2) which are in general a product the ethnic-based federalism of EPRDF (Aalen, 2019, p. 4f).
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