This chapter examines past literature on climate change impacts and adaptations in Nepal. First, it is essential to explore the geographical context of the country and how that position affects how the country contributes to and reacts to climate change. Furthermore, the effects of climate change on agriculture on the country will be examined. The review of literature will also seek to identify areas that past studies have concentrated on and unearth areas that have not received significant focus.
Nepal is a landlocked country located in Asia. The country takes up a part of the Himalayas, a tectonic plate boundary between the Indian and the Eurasian plates. The Indian plate has been moving northwards, and it has therefore collided with the Eurasian plate causing the highest mountain range in the world (Shrestha & Aryal, 2011). Although some parts of Nepal are as low-lying as 80 meters above sea level, the average elevation is more than 3200 meters above sea level (Shrestha & Aryal, 2011). With such mountainous terrain, a significant portion of land is not suitable for agriculture in an economy that heavily relies on this sector. Almost one-third of Nepalese people live below the international poverty line. Unemployment and inflation are also high in the developing economy. There are also significant gaps in the country concerning health and sanitation. Infant mortality is high mostly due to curable diseases (Collins et al., 2013). At the same time, malnutrition is common in children, and less than half of the country’s population has access to improved sanitation (Lobell et al., 2008).
Nepal is however well endowed with water resources. It has at least 6000 rivers and a per capita water availability of 9000 cubic meters (Chalise & Naranpanawa, 2016). The rivers flow from the snowcapped peaks of the Himalayas. The rivers also possess the capacity for the production of thousands of megawatts of hydroelectric power. Agriculture is the leading destination of water drawn from the rivers. Agriculture makes up about 30% of the country’s GDP (Chalise & Naranpanawa, 2016). Mostly, agriculture is subsistent. There are three main agro-ecological zones, the mountains in the upper Himalayas, the lower hills, and the lowlands. The main crops in each zone are corn, rice, and wheat respectively. Of the arable land available, about 65% relies on rain for water (Chalise & Naranpanawa, 2016). This is mostly due to the topography of steep hills that limit the reach of economically viable irrigation systems.
There are limited studies on climate change in Nepal especially due to the mammoth task of scaling down general circulation models to track climactic trends. The country also has a large range of water variability. In the monsoon season, the rain is heavy, and floods are frequent. In the dry season, droughts are likely to strike (Collins et al., 2013). It is also difficult to analyze the effects of climate change due to non-climate factors that also affect water resources in the country. To investigate climate change in the region, factors such as changes in precipitation, water stress, and glacial melt are considered (Collins et al., 2013)
Temperature is a critical variable that is analyzed in climate change studies. Some studies suggest that there have been no temperature increases in Nepal. Others have noted slight increases in temperature. The rise in temperature has been analyzed by measuring days and temperatures. An increase in the number of hot nights and a decrease in the number of cold days is an indicator of increasing average temperatures (Eriksson et al., 2009). Globally, climate change has been marked by a rise in average temperature that has seen melting icecaps and the possibility of a rising sea level. Nepal has a significant amount of glaciers in its peaks whose size has not changed significantly as a result of rising temperatures (Eriksson et al., 2009).
Precipitation in Nepal comes with the monsoon rains that serve this region in Asia. There are complex forces that affect the rains from moisture formation in the Indian Ocean to winds that carry the moisture inland (Stern, 2008). Increased levels of carbon dioxide levels may have a significant effect on the variability of precipitation levels but not a significant impact with regard to general decline or increase in the amount of precipitation (Manandhar, Vogt, Perret, & Kazama, 2011). Increased variability implies that the monsoon season is likely to come with heavy rainfall and the dry season is likely to be drier. Furthermore, it is projected that some monsoon seasons could be drier than current ones. The extreme weather phenomena of El Nino and La Nina governs periods of high rainfall and those of low rainfall (Murphy & Timbal, 2008). It is therefore difficult to ascertain whether variations in the volume of precipitation is attributable to climate change or not. Varying precipitation intensity has an impact on the volume of runoff in the rivers (Manandhar et al., 2011). If rising temperatures lead to melting glaciers, the rivers will have increased capacity in the short run. In the long run, the volume of the rivers will reduce (Manandhar et al., 2011). Glacial lakes are also likely to burst as they fill with water from melting glaciers. If they burst, they send water and debris downstream at fast speeds destroying farmland and infrastructure (Manandhar et al., 2011).
Agriculture in Nepal is affected depending on the primary source of water it relies on. Farmers who rely on ice and glacial melt will see an increased amount of water (Gentle & Maraseni, 2012). However, they will be at risk of glacial lake bursts that can destroy farmlands. Farmers who rely on monsoon rains will see several possible scenarios. First, farmers will have to cope with unpredictable monsoon onset and end dates. Farmers may also have to devise ways to harvest excess rainfall in the monsoon season to use during the dry period (Gentle & Maraseni, 2012). Furthermore, farmers may adjust types of crops they grow to cope with a more intense dry season and possible frequent droughts.
Climate change has had severe effects on the agricultural output of Nepal and consequently the food security of the country. Climate change has effects such as an increase in the frequency of flash flooding, drought, forest fires, and landslides. Due to the diverse nature of the geographic and climatic conditions, these effects differ according to the agricultural activity in each region. Given more than two-thirds of Nepal’s population rely on agriculture as their chief economic activity, their economic well-being is threatened by the adverse effects of climate change (Head, 2014). Too much or too little rainfall reduces crop output and thereby reducing the ability of farmers to feed the entire population.
Climate change response involves two options namely mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation requires assessing one’s contribution to the climate change menace and acting accordingly to eliminate the actions that contribute to climate change. Mitigation is a long-term orientation which involves adhering to international standards for lowering carbon and other greenhouse emissions (Urban, 2015). Nepal has adopted several measures to mitigate the negative outcomes associated with climate change. The chief option available for Nepal is to invest in clean energy. The country has extensive hydroelectric power reserves that are yet to be exploited. If the country can tap this immense potential, it can reduce its carbon footprint significantly (Stern, 2008). As technology slowly takes the world away from the internal combustion engine, Nepal can power its economy entirely on clean power and even export excess output to neighboring energy-hungry giants such as China and India.
National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) is the primary document on adaptation in the country. The document provides guidelines on mobilizing community institutions for the development as well as the implementation of adaptation plans (Nagoda & Nightingale, 2017). More so, the country has increased reliance on drought-resistant crops that grow fast and can withstand drier conditions. More so, farmers in the country have adopted various practices to conserve water such as extensive mulching. Furthermore, increasing crop diversification and planting cover crops increase the capacity of land resources to withstand extreme weather events (Gentle & Maraseni, 2012). However, Nepal’s adaptation strategies have been limited by factors such as low adaptive capacity. Low adaptive capacity is as a result of high poverty rates and underdeveloped resilience capacity.
Nepal’s Climate Change Policy was developed in 2011 with the primary aim of minimizing the effects of climate change on the country (Field, Barros, Stocker, & Dahe, 2012). One primary strategy has been looking to adopt more reliable ways of watering crops to reduce reliance on the monsoon rains. The development of efficient irrigation systems, as well as water harvesting techniques, will increase the ability of the country to produce crops even in the dry season. Furthermore, the government of Nepal has embarked on a development drive that will see the country come out of reliance on agriculture and harness its capacity in other sectors (Nagoda & Nightingale, 2017). Implementation of the climate change policies has been a key challenge (Gentle & Maraseni, 2012). As such, the adaptation activities require enabling will and power at the local level to drive them towards maturity.
Local Adaption Plans for Action (LAPA) were devised to promote implementation at the local level (Ojha et al., 2016). A key component of LAPA is sensitization of the population regarding climate change and their context in the issue. This is followed by vulnerability and adaptation assessment to determine the priority of the available adaptation options. After the formulation of an adaptation plan, the roles of all the stakeholders are integrated and communicated to each of them (Ojha et al., 2016). This is followed by the implementation of the plan. To determine the progress, an assessment is carried out, and recommendations are provided.
Extreme events such as floods, bushfires, and heat waves that pose a threat to the infrastructural systems of urban centers will increase in frequency in the future (Prasain, 2018). At the same time, these events increase the probability of human injury and consequently interrupted the productivity of labor. Damage to biodiversity and ecological systems reduce nature’s capacity to protect life from natural disasters (Ojha et al., 2016). As the country becomes more aware of the possible ramification of climate change, there is likely to be a shift in settlements regions that have more resilient ecosystems (Urban, 2015).
The Nepalese people have invested resources in the development of climate resilience and adaptation strategies. Climate change may be caused by natural or anthropological forces (Field et al., 2012). While it may be difficult to avoid the effects of climate change, societies can devise ways of adapting to changes in the medium to long-term general weather patterns in a region. Adaptation requires managing risks from climate changes while creating safety nets and resilience points for the economy (Change, 2014). There are also steps to protect key areas of concern. These efforts combine the input from public and private sectors.
References
Chalise, S., & Naranpanawa, A. (2016). Climate change adaptation in agriculture: A computable general equilibrium analysis of land-use change in Nepal. Land Use Policy, 59, 241-250.
Change, I. P. O. C. (2014). IPCC. Climate change.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J. L., Fichefet, T., Friedlingstein, P., … & Shongwe, M. (2013). Long-term climate change: projections, commitments and irreversibility.
Eriksson, M., Xu, J., Shrestha, A. B., Vaidya, R. A., Santosh, N., & Sandström, K. (2009). The changing Himalayas: impact of climate change on water resources and livelihoods in the greater Himalayas. International centre for integrated mountain development (ICIMOD).
Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., & Dahe, Q. (Eds.). (2012). Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation: special report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press.
Gentle, P., & Maraseni, T. N. (2012). Climate change, poverty and livelihoods: adaptation practices by rural mountain communities in Nepal. Environmental science & policy, 21, 24-34.
Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., & Naylor, R. L. (2008). Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319(5863), 607-610.
Manandhar, S., Vogt, D. S., Perret, S. R., & Kazama, F. (2011). Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers’ perception and practices. Regional Environmental Change, 11(2), 335-348.
Nagoda, S., & Nightingale, A. J. (2017). Participation and Power in Climate Change Adaptation Policies: Vulnerability in Food Security Programs in Nepal. World Development, 100, 85-93.
Ojha, H. R., Ghimire, S., Pain, A., Nightingale, A., Khatri, D. B., & Dhungana, H. (2016). Policy without politics: technocratic control of climate change adaptation policy making in Nepal. Climate Policy, 16(4), 415-433.
Prasain, S. (2018). Climate change adaptation measure on agricultural communities of Dhye in Upper Mustang, Nepal. Climatic Change, 148(1-2), 279-291.
Shrestha, A. B., & Aryal, R. (2011). Climate change in Nepal and its impact on Himalayan glaciers. Regional Environmental Change, 11(1), 65-77.
Stern, N. (2008). The economics of climate change. American Economic Review, 98(2), 1-37.
Urban, M. C. (2015). Accelerating extinction risk from climate change. Science, 348(6234), 571-573.
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