Current Situation and SWOT Analysis:
In spite of the maturity, the electric heating market in France is still growing, driven by new technology that incorporates to innovative energy-efficient products. These days, Housing construction is another factor that is gearing up growth. It is believed that the market would continue to increase over next twenty years. The issues regarding heating represent an individual households as well as businesses. This concern is linked to the environmental challenges and urgency to establish energy-efficient solutions.
According to the SWOT analysis of market,
Strength: The strength of “Haverland” Electric-heater Company in France is that the company is attractive and particularly renovated. The quality insulation is very crucial for keeping energy consumption and costs down. The regulation of electric heating installation has permitted compliance with new regulation that needs the use of highly efficient heating equipment. More of it, a full range of electric inertia heaters is available to cover all the segments of market.
Weakness: Employees must know the affects of performance of company. Otherwise, new challenges for electric heating are its accountability. The lack of innovation might be a great issue.
Opportunity: Selling market of gas heating systems has a huge opportunity of huge enhancement. The opportunity is the growing trend value of heating projects. The purchase of equipment is significantly influenced by conditions of weather. “Haverland France” has constructed brand consciousness through their dealers. Haverland’s current communication strategy targets to be cheap and efficient. Therefore, the online communication is an outstanding choice of media for the company.
Threat: The demand for consistent renovation creates a modern business atmosphere. However, “Haverland” has no privacy or confidentiality clauses about facets of circumstances. The strategical move of Spanish heating market is a threat of this French company.
Haverland’s Customer Profile:
The customers of Haverland customer profile relies upon different types of heating markets that are Heating system, Gas, electricity, Electricity and wood as supplement, renewable energy or hybrid, renewable energy combined with other energies and other heating systems. Company’s commitment to develop international markets led to strong growth of network of commercial agents and distributors.
Sustainable consumption for insulation work or equipment choice is synonymous with the prosperity of consumers to choose high end technology for their heating systems. Household consumption of energy for heating relies on housing types and socio-demographic factors involving level of income and structural methods such as replacement of equipments that ultimately relies upon available new products.
Consumers have a tendency to combine the performance and cost-effective attributes of electric heating with the superior comfort or convenience afforded by other systems. In reality, a large majority of people choose the system that is least costly to install and maintain. Financial considerations override the desires of consumers for making environment friendly choices. There are also other labels of safety and performance standards. Customers should ensure electric radiators as safe and reliable.
Multiplicative decomposition method (Month Wise) |
||||||||
Column 1 |
Column 2 |
Column 3 |
Column 4 |
Column 5 |
Column 6 |
Column 7 |
Column 8 |
Column 9 |
Year |
Month |
Time |
Cases |
MA |
CMA |
Sn*e |
Sn |
final Sn |
2012 |
1 |
1 |
49451 |
1.53748166 |
||||
2 |
2 |
60045 |
2.26354989 |
|||||
3 |
3 |
10584 |
35493.75 |
31772.875 |
0.33311433 |
0.46455965 |
0.7329619 |
|
4 |
4 |
21895 |
28052 |
25696.625 |
0.85205742 |
0.87505412 |
1.38062211 |
|
5 |
5 |
19684 |
23341.25 |
27426.5 |
0.71770003 |
0.76346297 |
1.20455848 |
|
6 |
6 |
41202 |
31511.75 |
36291.125 |
1.1353189 |
1.20018417 |
1.89359809 |
|
7 |
7 |
43266 |
41070.5 |
50158.875 |
0.86257915 |
0.83217031 |
1.31296191 |
|
8 |
8 |
60130 |
59247.25 |
65362.5 |
0.91994645 |
0.85158126 |
1.34358766 |
|
9 |
9 |
92391 |
71477.75 |
78616 |
1.17521878 |
1.23760609 |
1.95264077 |
|
10 |
10 |
90124 |
85754.25 |
90492.375 |
0.99592922 |
1.01095414 |
1.59503922 |
|
11 |
11 |
100372 |
95230.5 |
95136.5 |
1.05503145 |
1.05503145 |
1.66458249 |
|
12 |
12 |
98035 |
95042.5 |
98255 |
0.99776093 |
0.99776093 |
1.57422355 |
|
2013 |
1 |
13 |
91639 |
101467.5 |
94039.5 |
0.97447349 |
0.97447349 |
1.53748166 |
2 |
14 |
115824 |
86611.5 |
80732.5 |
1.43466386 |
1.43466386 |
2.26354989 |
|
3 |
15 |
40948 |
74853.5 |
68704.125 |
0.59600497 |
0.46455965 |
0.7329619 |
|
4 |
16 |
51003 |
62554.75 |
56793 |
0.89805082 |
0.87505412 |
1.38062211 |
|
5 |
17 |
42444 |
51031.25 |
52450.125 |
0.80922591 |
0.76346297 |
1.20455848 |
|
6 |
18 |
69730 |
53869 |
55120.375 |
1.26504945 |
1.20018417 |
1.89359809 |
|
7 |
19 |
52299 |
56371.75 |
65230.125 |
0.80176146 |
0.83217031 |
1.31296191 |
|
8 |
20 |
61014 |
74088.5 |
77901.875 |
0.78321607 |
0.85158126 |
1.34358766 |
|
9 |
21 |
113311 |
81715.25 |
87162.75 |
1.2999934 |
1.23760609 |
1.95264077 |
|
10 |
22 |
100237 |
92610.25 |
97698.875 |
1.02597906 |
1.01095414 |
1.59503922 |
|
11 |
23 |
95879 |
102787.5 |
1.66458249 |
||||
12 |
24 |
101723 |
1.57422355 |
|||||
Average |
18.9330752 |
|||||||
Note: |
MA= moving average |
CMA= centred moving average |
Sn = seasonl estimate |
e = error |
Computation of the normalization factor |
||
L = number of months in the year = 12 |
||
Normalization factor = L/(sum of average monthly estimates) |
||
L/12 = |
1.577756 |
|
Monthly multiplicative indices are- |
||
Jan |
1.537482 |
|
Feb |
2.26355 |
|
March |
0.732962 |
|
April |
1.380622 |
|
May |
1.204558 |
|
June |
1.893598 |
|
July |
1.312962 |
|
August |
1.343588 |
|
September |
1.952641 |
|
October |
1.595039 |
|
November |
1.664582 |
|
December |
1.574224 |
Sales data of Haverland (Month Wise) |
||||||||||||||
Input: |
Annual |
|||||||||||||
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Total |
|
2012 |
49451 |
60045 |
10584 |
21895 |
19684 |
41202 |
43266 |
60130 |
92391 |
90124 |
100372 |
98035 |
687179 |
|
2013 |
91639 |
115824 |
40948 |
51003 |
42444 |
69730 |
52299 |
61014 |
113311 |
100237 |
95879 |
101723 |
936051 |
|
Totals |
141090 |
175869 |
51532 |
72898 |
62128 |
110932 |
95565 |
121144 |
205702 |
190361 |
196251 |
199758 |
1623230 |
|
Monthly Averages |
70545 |
87934.5 |
25766 |
36449 |
31064 |
55466 |
47782.5 |
60572 |
102851 |
95180.5 |
98125.5 |
99879 |
67634.58 |
|
Monthly Indices |
1.04303149 |
1.30014108 |
0.380958952 |
0.53891069 |
0.45929166 |
0.820083414 |
0.706480289 |
0.89557734 |
1.520686532 |
1.407275617 |
1.45081843 |
1.47674452 |
Analysis: |
|||||||||
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
Jun |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
2012 |
47410.841 |
46183.450 |
27782.521 |
40628.253 |
50241.231 |
64041.471 |
69183.020 |
66385.891 |
|
2013 |
87858.326 |
89085.717 |
107486.646 |
94640.913 |
85027.936 |
71227.696 |
66086.147 |
68883.276 |
|
Is there a trend in the data? |
|
|
|||||||
Quarters/ |
Cumulative |
||||||||
Year |
Months |
Month (x) |
Sales (y) |
sum x^2 |
sum x*y |
||||
2012 |
1 |
1 |
47410.841 |
1 |
47410.841 |
||||
2 |
2 |
46183.45 |
4 |
92366.900 |
|||||
3 |
3 |
27782.521 |
9 |
83347.563 |
|||||
4 |
4 |
40628.253 |
16 |
162513.012 |
|||||
5 |
5 |
42857.299 |
25 |
214286.495 |
|||||
6 |
6 |
50241.231 |
36 |
301447.386 |
|||||
7 |
7 |
61241.231 |
49 |
428688.617 |
|||||
8 |
8 |
67141.047 |
64 |
537128.376 |
|||||
9 |
9 |
60756.111 |
81 |
546804.999 |
|||||
10 |
10 |
64041.471 |
100 |
640414.710 |
|||||
11 |
11 |
69183.02 |
121 |
761013.220 |
|||||
12 |
12 |
66385.891 |
144 |
796630.692 |
|||||
2013 |
1 |
13 |
87858.326 |
169 |
1142158.238 |
||||
2 |
14 |
89085.717 |
196 |
1247200.038 |
|||||
3 |
15 |
107486.646 |
225 |
1612299.690 |
|||||
4 |
16 |
94640.913 |
256 |
1514254.608 |
|||||
5 |
17 |
92411.868 |
289 |
1571001.756 |
|||||
6 |
18 |
85027.936 |
324 |
1530502.848 |
|||||
7 |
19 |
74027.543 |
361 |
1406523.317 |
|||||
8 |
20 |
68128.120 |
400 |
1362562.400 |
|||||
9 |
21 |
74513.056 |
441 |
1564774.176 |
|||||
10 |
22 |
71227.696 |
484 |
1567009.312 |
|||||
11 |
23 |
66086.147 |
529 |
1519981.381 |
|||||
12 |
24 |
68883.276 |
576 |
1653198.624 |
|||||
Total |
210 |
1623229.610 |
2870 |
22303519.199 |
By linear regression equations: |
b |
a |
|||||||||
7845.288244 |
-1011.705 |
||||||||||
Sales=b(Season)+a |
|
||||||||||
The linear regression equation for model trend in this case is- |
Sales = 7845.288244 *(t) – 1011.705 |
||||||||||
We may need to check r^2 to decide on the goodness of the fit. |
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Let us generate the deseasoned monthly forecasts for 2014 |
|
|
|||||||||
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
2014 |
195120.501 |
202965.789 |
210811.078 |
218656.366 |
226501.654 |
242192.231 |
250037.519 |
257882.807 |
265728.095 |
273573.383 |
281418.672 |
Seasonality indices |
1.026 |
1.279 |
0.375 |
0.530 |
0.452 |
0.695 |
0.881 |
1.496 |
1.385 |
1.427 |
1.453 |
Let us generate the monthly forecasts for 2014 |
|
||||||||||
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
2014 |
200241.663 |
259637.515 |
79017.945 |
115939.933 |
102356.177 |
168350.488 |
220324.299 |
385847.962 |
367934.709 |
390517.974 |
408895.562 |
2012 |
49451 |
60045 |
10584 |
21895 |
19684 |
43266 |
60130 |
92391 |
90124 |
100372 |
98035 |
2013 |
91639 |
115824 |
40948 |
51003 |
42444 |
52299 |
61014 |
113311 |
100237 |
95879 |
101723 |
The calculations and results infer that the month wise sale of electrical products would grow in 2014 rather than 2012 and 2013. However, in March 2014, the sale is going to be less than March 2013. The sale of September to December in 2014 is going to be significantly greater than sales of September to December 2013.
The loyalty strategy is used for dealers and fitters of electrical suppliers that are wholesalers and electricians. Nearly 35% of homes use electricity as its power source in France. Use of electricity in domestic purpose and primary power sources have increased in these days. It is useful to detect between individual private housing where individuals select their own heating system and collective housing or shared building. Consumers would be well suggested to consider their choice of heating system with care. This happened because new residential or commercial builds would cause for at least 20 to 25 years for it.
As Haverland is one of the leading companies in the manufacturing sector and sale of electric heaters, the French subsidiary gets benefit from the expertise and information of the Spanish company. The cost strategy of Haverland is serving customer requirements as they consider that the customer association is paramount. Although the company has an international perspective, the ability is to meet local requirements is a major success factor for their strategy.
Electric heating suppliers majorly communicate via internet and on television. Haverland like other companies have their own website for providing constant and borderless communication to their customers. In today’s world, social networks are crucial communication tools for carrying out business. Haverland consequently present on Facebook, Twitter and Youtube. The use of social networks permits brands to enhance their vision, promote loyalty and better understand their customers.
Box, G.E., Jenkins, G.M., Reinsel, G.C. and Ljung, G.M., 2015. Time series analysis: forecasting and control. John Wiley & Sons.
Verbesselt, J., Hyndman, R., Newnham, G., & Culvenor, D. (2010). Detecting trend and seasonal changes in satellite image time series. Remote sensing of Environment, 114(1), 106-115.
Yamane, T., 1967. Statistics: An introductory analysis (Vol. 886). New York, NY: Harper & Row.
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