Discuss About The International Managing Projects In Business.

The Psychology of Risk and Uncertainty

Discuss About The International Managing Projects In Business.

Clarke states that any risk is more of psychological rather than actual. If an unknown situation arrives, people are scared on what would happen, what will not happen and mostly, importantly, they are scared of the unknown factors that may or may not come. He also states that it is people’s incapability to not understand the situation and blaming the unknown may be unacceptable.

In the past, for every problem, people use to visit church to understand the reason and also a solution if the problem can be sorted. The experts were not well educated or well aware of what would be the reason behind a particular activity and at the same time, they wouldn’t accept to the fact that they aren’t aware of the logical reason. If they accept the same, the people around would lose trust on them and hence, they conveniently used terms like witch hunt and witch crafts. People around started believing that they have to deal with this and they don’t have an option to get rid of this witch craft. Sudden death of a family member was termed as witch craft, rather than trying to hunt the reason for the same. Today, people are smart enough to dig back the reason of death so that they can safeguard their other family members, friends, and colleagues from such problems, in the near future (Pierce 2015)

With time, people wanted to safeguard themselves from the unwanted problems and hence, they decided that an unknown witch cannot be stronger than that of the known remedies. With this understanding, people started to search for logic, for everything that is happening around them. If a village or locality is prone to natural disaster then probably one cannot understand the reason behind the national disaster, but then they can take necessary actions to ensure that the impact of the earthquake is reduced to a great extend and this is allowing people to be more carefree and to concentrate on other things. Due to the witchcraft in picture, people were not able to concentrate on the bigger things as they were just concerned about what would happen next minute which they aren’t aware of (Grinshpun 2014).

Through this article, Clarke states that people are scared about the negatives that would come if they take particular action and that is one of the main reasons due to which people are not acting as and when required. Acting while a risk has arrived shows an individual’s capability and competence on how to act when the situation is uncontrollable, rather than blaming the unknown which may not even exist. Today, many countries don’t even believe in witchcraft. It is always important for an individual to analyse the situation rather than that of taking decisions based on what ancestors have said and what people around is saying.

A Brief History of Witchcraft and Risk Management

It is important to analyse the situation and understand the reason for which a particular situation has raised. If the crops fall off due to heavy rains or storm then one need to understand if this is the season then year-on-year safety measures should be put in place to ensure that the problems can be avoided in the upcoming years. If this has happened during the off-season then people should watch weather forecasts and be prepared for the unforeseen.

Resource management is one of the most important things that an individual needs to learn so that he can act fast if any risk arises. This is well understood by the government of many countries and also the managers in the organization are trained on this. In the past, number of people affected by natural disasters was really high in number but the number has now come down to a great extent. One needs to understand and remember that uncertainty is one factor which cannot be deleted completely. The manager in an organization may put 100% efforts to ensure that none of his team member leaves, but there would be few reasons on which he cannot act upon and hence, few team members may leave the system due to some unavoidable reasons. The manager needs to be prepared that few people would leave the organization at some point of time and hence, he needs to hire additional people, keep them ready for their future roles and responsibilities so that they can act accordingly rather than blaming the people who are leaving the organization or being helpless in such situations.

The uncertainty may also be due to the things that are yet unknown. A person willing to combat risk should always try to understand the unsaid factors as well and this will help him at the time of risk. When many countries were affected by Tsunami, people were shocked as many were not even aware of the existence of something called Tsunami. After the effect, the researchers tried their level best to analyse the situation and also they tried to understand the reason due to which Tsunami came. The loss of life to this event was huge but unavoidable too, due to the lack of knowledge among the people and also the government officials. Today, many nations have systems that can forecast Tsunami so that they can warn people and also save their lives, if not anything else.

The Importance of Resource Management

A risk manager should always spend time with historians who have a good understanding of the situation so that they can share their experience and accordingly, the risk manager can discover new things. It is very important to understand the previous research and then based on the same, the additional research should take place. While preparing a risk management plan, the risk manager should always take the uncertainty into consideration and only then the plan can be implemented successfully. If the manager feels that a particular thing has never took place in the past and it will never take place in the future as well then the risk management plan will never considered to be complete. Allocation of available resources to the right team, for the right purpose is also one role which the risk manager needs to play. If excess resource is allocated to an unwanted situation then the risk in another situation cannot be reduced.

While talking of risk management, drugs cannot be missed at any cost. At one point of time, plenty of people were suffering from unknown health problems and they were dying of the same but the situation is not the same. There are plenty of drugs that would help the patient to recover easily from diseases like typhoid, jaundice and other diseases which was life threatening at one point of time. The situation is different today but this doesn’t mean that people aren’t dying of any disease at all. Even today, there aren’t medicines for cancer, HIV and many others. The team of scientists are working on this and they are trying to find medication for diseases which is still a threat to many.

The risk associated with drug manufacturing doesn’t end there. There are plenty of other risks as well associated with it. If a research is undertaken for a new drug then there are possibilities that the research is taking lot of time and hence, it is not reaching to people on time and hence, many could suffer from the health problem. Apart from that, if the drug is released quickly in the market without much of testing then there are high chances that it would lead to other problems and ultimately, it may also claim a person’s life (Zulch 2014).

Risk is associated with medication as well and hence, one need to be rest assured that they are consuming the proper drug and not just something that is randomly available in the market. A well approved drug may be considered by an individual for any kind of viral fever, on the other end, the ingredients in that drug may not be suitable to the other and hence, the other person may suffer may some other problem. This is a risk associated with drugs as well and one needs to understand that risk is inevitable and an individual needs to bear with risks at all point of time.

Drug Manufacturing Risks and Uncertainties

Throughout the article, Clarke states that humans are continuously looking for to reduce the risks in their life so that they can be safe and happy but this is merely impossible. An individual should look for ways by which the risk can be reduced to a great extent but at the same time, people will come across risks which they need to face and overcome to survive in life. The government is putting in efforts on various areas so that they can reduce the risks, but at the same time, they also should revise the policy at regular intervals, by way of analysing the existing situation with that of the past so that decisions can be taken accordingly. Policy revision considering the current scenario and situation will ensure that the risks can be reduced to a great extent, but one needs to accept that risks cannot be reduced completely. Ignorance and unawareness of risk will increase the risks on the individual rather than that of making them safe. At the same time, one should have the courage to look for ways to reduce the risk rather than avoiding it.

Due to heavy rains on April 12, 2018, Koranga (Northern border part of Malawi) was flooded. More than 300 families were stranded and the government is looking for ways to ensure that most of the families are safe. The government has engaged a team to ensure that people are safe and also the basic needs like food, clothing and shelter are met (Ziek 2015).

The various factors that create an impact on the perception of risk are as follows: –

Factors	Explanation
Imposition	This risk was imposed on the people of Koranga by nature and hence, this couldn’t have been avoided at any cost. Similarly, this risk was imposed, on the government, by the nature and it is their responsibility to ensure that the affected people are safe.
Voluntariness	Exposure to this risk was not voluntary by the people. The government officials have started the rescue operation with the hope that people would be saved. This is voluntary on their behalf as it is their responsibility to ensure that the society is safe.
Equitability	The risk is inequitable for the people affected as they have lost their house. On the other end, the risk is equitable for the government officials as they can save the people and hence, the benefit derived from the risk is more than that of avoiding it (Sorooshian 2013).
State of knowledge	People and the government officials are aware of the problems that would arise due to the risk that has arrived. Due to the intensity of the risk, people are struggling hard to survive and at the same time, the officials are willing to save the affected people.
Proximity	In this case, the proximity of affected people with the risk is very high as they are affected directly by the floods. The government officials are willing to affect the people and they are more concerned about the people’s life than anything else (Shelley 2015).
Time	Koranga as a region is affected by floods frequently and hence, people experience this disaster very frequently. Due to this, people are aware of the safety measures that they need to take to ensure that they are safe. Similarly, the government officials will also be aware of the steps that they need to take to ensure safety of the affected people.
Extreme Value	At this point of time, the government officials is more concerned about the possibility of cholera outbreak in the society and hence, they are trying hard to control this situation. On the other end, the affected people are concerned about the death of themselves or their loved ones because of lack of food, sleep, shelter and medication (Rolstadas 2014).
Dread	People have plenty of such questions in their mind like – “What if nobody rescues us? Who will give us food? What happened to what we saved?” Similarly, the government officials also had few questions in their mind, like – “Will we be able to save all?” “Anything else can be done to save the people?” “What if the rescue materials carried by the officials aren’t sufficient?” (Rolfe 2013).
Unknown	If the rescue operation is delay, the suffering would increase, there are also possibilities that the death toll may increase and further delay would lead to outbreak of Cholera, which is highly risky.
Number affected	Number of people affected by the floods is close to 1000 and hence, the government officials are putting in efforts to save these people. This is creating a huge pressure on the government as the number of people is huge (Parker 2015).

It is very difficult for the people to be prepared for such risks, but the government can take initiative before the risk comes. The dreadful thoughts among the people makes the situation even scarier as people are more concerned about saving their loved ones. The number of people affected by floods keeps on increasing and hence, it makes the situation difficult with passing time. The intensity of the problem raises for the rescue team as well, as reaching the venue is very difficult (Muller 2014,).

To ensure that the possible risks are kept at bay while the construction work is on, it is the responsibility of the safety officer to take necessary steps. Few of steps that would ensure that the risks at construction site can be reduced to a great extent are as follows: –

• Transportation to the construction site should be pre-decided
• Unauthorized access to the site should be avoided
• All the employees at the site should be trained about the SOPs to adhere
• All the workers should wear the required safety equipments (Morris 2013)

Factors affecting perception of risk

The safety officer should ensure that all the employees and workers should adhere to the guidelines. All the employees should be educated about the hazards of not wearing the safety equipments. This law is in place to ensure that the employees and also people in the nearby localities aren’t affected due to the construction work that is taking place (Makarova 2014).

The test of causation – The Brazil Dam Collapse was due to the design flaws and the range of construction. BHP is responsible for the environmental disaster caused due to Brazil Dam Collapse. BHP safety team should have been extra careful while the project was in design stage (Wang 2013).

Foresee-ability – BHP didn’t foresee such a big risk that is laying ahead due to the design flaws. If these things would have been foreseen by the BHP team then they would have avoided it as the financial loss to the company due to this disaster is huge and at the same time, the reputation of the organization is also tampered.

Controllability – It wasn’t possible for the organization to control it as this disaster took place suddenly and the safety team didn’t have much of time to react on it. At this point of time, BHP is extremely cautious so that they can avoid such disasters in the near future (Pretorious 2015).

Reasonableness – BHP should have taken safety precautions to check on the quality of designs that were about to be implemented. The design was approved by government officials and hence, the organization couldn’t reason the disaster (Mehdi 2012).

It is very important for the safety team at BHP to measure the effects of risk in the near future. In the near future, they should ensure that the risk is completely avoided so that the people can be safe and at the same time, this is the only way by which BHP can gain back the trust of their stakeholders. Currently, BHP needs to identify the reason behind the risks so that these checkpoints can be put in place in the safety document. This will ensure that the safety team continuously tracks the similar concerns to avoid the same in the near future (Jiayue 2014).

Decision making about risks should be based on systematic risk assessment process so that BHP can avoid these kinds of disasters in the near future. Few of the risk assessment activities that need to be undertaken by BHP are as follows: –

• Risk determination – The team should list down the existing list of risks and at the same time, they also need to identify other risks as well. To make things better BHP can hire industry experts to guide the risk evaluation team so that none of the risks are missed out with determining the risks.
• Risk estimation – Against each risk, BHP needs to understand the problems associated with it. There are possibilities that few risks can be accepted, considering the other alternatives available. On the other end, few risks may lead to huge concerns and hence, the government cannot avoid the same at any cost (Huang 2015).

The management team at BHP will have to implement various risk controllers and assessors as that would help the organization as a whole. Few of advantages of implementation of risk controllers and assessors are as follows: –

• The employees and the workers at the site would be safe and hence, they would be able to concentrate more on productivity (Helbing 2016).
• The cost of risk is reduced and hence, BHP team can plan other investments which can improve the organization’s profit margin.
• The insurance department of the organization can relax as the insurance companies will develop a trust on the organization.
• Finally, the stakeholders would give a warm welcome to the organization rather than resisting their entry (Cahan 2013).

BHP needs to assess the risks and look for ways to reduce the same in the near future. BHP now is willing to pay at least US $150 billion to clean the disaster, but with the help of proper planning, the amount spend on maintenance would be half of the penalty. To add on, the reputation of the organization would be boosted as well (Borch 2013).

References

Borch, C, 2013, Crowd theory and the management of crowds: A controversial relationship, Current Sociology, vol. 61, no. 6, pp. 584-601

Cahan, R, 2013, Standing out from the crowd: measuring crowding in quantitative strategies, Journal of portfolio management, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 14-23

Helbing, D, 2016, Crowd disasters as system failures: analysis of Love Parade disaster, EPJ Data science. Vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 1-40

Huang, L, 2015, Congestion detection of pedestrians using the velocity entropy: A case study of Love Parade 2010 disaster, Physica: A statistical mechanics and its applications, pp. 19-23

Jiayue, W, 2014, Comparison of turbulent pedestrian behaviours between Mina and Love Parade, Porcedia engineering, vol. 84, pp. 115-127

Mehdi, M, 2012, Traffic instabilities in self-organized pedestrian crowds, PLoS Computational biology, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 17-28

Pretorious, M, 2015, Large crowd modelling: an analysis of the Duisburg Love Parade Disaster, Fire and Materials, vol. 39, no. 4, pp. 301-322

Wang, J, 2013, Risks of large-scale evacuation based on the effectiveness of rescue strategies under different crowd densities, Risk Analysis, vol. 33, no. 8, pp. 1553-1563

Makarova, A, 2014, Foresight evaluation: lessons from project management, vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 75-91

Morris, P, 2013, Reconstructing project management reprised: A knowledge perspective, Project management journal, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 6-23

Muller, R, 2014, Innovative approaches in project management research, International journal of project management, vol. 12, pp. 873-894

Grinshpun, H, 2014, Deconstructing a global commodity: Coffee, culture, and consumption in Japan, Journal of customer culture, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 343-364

Pierce, J, 2015, Characterization of naturally occurring airborne diacetyl concentrations associated with the preparation and consumption of unflavored coffee, Toxicology reports, vol. 2, pp. 1200-1208

Parker, D, 2015, Inclusion of strategic management theories to project management, International journal of managing projects in Business, , vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 552-573

Rolfe, B, 2013, Doing project management ironically, Procedia – social and behavioural sciences, vol. 74, pp. 264-273

Rolstadas, A, 2014, Understanding project success through analysis of project management approach, International journal of managing projects in Business, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 59-76

Shelley, A, 2015, Project management and leadership education facilitated as projects, International journal of managing projects in business, vol. 8, no. 3, pp. 478-490

Sorooshian, S, 2013, Modeling on performance drivers of project management, Advances in environmental Biology, pp. 118-135

Ziek, P, 2015, Communication, dialogue and project management, International journal of managing projects in business, vol. 8, no. 4, pp. 783-803

Zulch, B, 2014, Communication: the foundation of project management, Procedia technology, vol. 16, pp. 1000-10