In the globalization era, countries are integrated with each other and this provides an international platform for goods and services. In the integrated world, the investment decision in one nation depends on macroeconomic environment of the targeted nation. The paper analyzes feasibility of investment of Australia originated company Woolworths in Japan. The large food and grocery market in Japan attracts Woolworths to start its business in Japan. The paper shows the performance trends of Japan in macro indicator and its effect on long-term investment return.
The foremost important area is general business environment. The business environment refers to the general structures of constriction permit, tax payment, and supply of credit, security of property rights, exchange facilities and issue of insolvency. The most important macro variable is economic growth rate that captures the productivity growth of the nation. High growth rate implies economic prosperity while a low growth rate represents economic slowdown. The related aspect of economic growth is the employment opportunity in the nation and prevailing rate of unemployment. Wage rate of workers determine the industrial cost of production and hence, is important for business. Credit supply determines the scope of business expansion. The actual borrowing cost is determined from the real interest rate, which is nominal rate minus the rate of inflation. Inflation resulted from demand side factors enhances economic growth. In addition to autonomous macro variables, the role of government play an important role in maintaining economic stability. Government intervenes in the economy using fiscal and monetary policy tool. Government expenditures are captured under fiscal regulation. The monetary policy is implemented using different money market instrument. The most commonly used instrument is interest rate that determines the level of investment. The policy of taxation is another instrument of fiscal policy tool. It is the only source of government revenue. The global financial crisis occurred in 2008 is a major event affecting many nations. The effect of global financial crisis on a country indicates its shock resistance capacity and stability of the economy.
Woolworths holds an important position in Australian grocery supermarket. Japan on the other hand comprises of a large food and drink market making Japan a lucrative place for business investment. In the paper, some of the major macro variables in Japan is evaluated including the general business environment. In terms of growing consumer demand and import reliance of Japan, grocery retail business seems profitable. However, the final decision should be taken only after complete evaluation of economic condition and its future prospects.
Favorable business environment makes it easier to start up a business in the nation and contributes to positive profit earnings in the long term. Before starting business all the necessary aspects related to a business needs to be observed carefully. The important aspects here are process of dealing with permission for new construction, property registration, easy mode of tax payment and other necessary things such as credit availability, power supply and others specific facilities. Japan has undertaken some reforms to make business operation easier.
In 2013, Japan has reduced the corporate income tax rate for business expansion. Now, it is less costly for companies to operate in Japan and enjoys a larger share of profit. The mode of tax payment has made easier with introduction of technical specification on the platform of e tax. The information of detailed tax structure is available is format of comma separated value (CMV). One disadvantage in Japan is the costly structure of construction permit. The nation has raised inspection fees that increases cost to the firms. Japan has established a new organization named Enterprise Turnaround Initiative Corporation to deal with insolvency issue. It initiates support to companies those are professionally managed but running with excessive debt.
Economic growth is one of the major macro variables determining the state of economic performance. Economic growth is measured in terms of change in Gross Domestic Product expressed as a percentage change from the previous year. GDP of the economy is not moves along a smooth path rather it fluctuates. The spikes in the GDP growth rate is explained with the phases of business cycle (Scarth, 2014).
Some similarities are observed in the trend growth rate of Japan and Australia. The growth rate in Japan is comparatively higher than that of Australia until 1990. The difference in growth rate between the two nations has narrowed overtime. After 1990s, growth rate in Australia exceeds the growth rate in Australia.
In recent years, Japan has accounted a growth rate higher than the last two years. Growth in Japan has sourced from a soaring in domestic spending. The unemployment remains at a low level increasing the confidence for business. The third largest economy in the world has recorded a GDP growth rate of 4% in the second quarter of 2017 (Partington, 2017). In the previous decade, Japan was struggling with a low growth rate. To improve the growth scenario, stimulus is given in the form of easy bank lending, encouragement for investment from private companies and boosts spending of consumers (Lockwood, 2015). The most significant factor contributing to Japan’s GDP growth is the increasing consumer spending. This means Woolworths can have a broad base of consumer demand in Japan.
The incidence of unemployment in the economy is described as a situation where some members of the labor force fail to find jobs suitable for them. Unemployment is an important macro indicator that symbolizes level of economic activity (Koba, 2014). High Unemployment rate symbolizes a week economy implying slow spending and growth.
From 1998 to 2002 unemployment rate has increased sharply. After that the figures of unemployment rate has decreased continuously until 2007. In the last five years, Japan has made significant progress in improving the unemployment status. Unemployment rate has declined sharply and reached to approximately 3.2%.
The falling unemployment rate shows a positive sign for the economy (Ehrenberg & Smith, 2016). The rate of job less in the nation fell slightly. The availability of job as indicated from the ratio of job offers and job seekers has remained at a stable level. Government in Japan is encouraging the employers to boost wage (Kitov & Kitov, 2013). The increased wage has direct effect on GDP through the channel of consumption spending. The shortage of labor is prevalent non-manufacturing sector like nursing care and medical profession. There is a dramatic fall in the figures of jobless people. This indicates a clear improvement in labor market condition. The improved status of labor market is contribute from increasing job opportunities in information technology, retail and wholesale sectors and construction (The Japan Times, 2017). . The recovery of nation production and export demand have made positive contribution to the labor market. The wage growth and land reform has reduced the tendency of overtime in the labor market and secured an equitable behavior for regular and non-regular laborers.
Wage is the return given to the laborers for their labor supply. The forces of labor demand and labor supply determine the market wage rate. An excess supply of labor pushes wages down while a shortage of labor increases the wage (Goodwin et al, 2013).
Monthly wages in Japan has increased at a comparatively slow rate. In October 2016, monthly wage was 295.62 JPY, which has slightly increased to become 301.704 in August 2017. In Japan wage declined to 301.70 thousand JPY per month in August from 425.79 JPY in the previous month. The average monthly wage is 321.06 thousand JPY between 1970 and 2017. The recorded highest wage was observed in December 1997 when wages became 883.79 JPY thousands. The all-time lowest wage rate is 52.91 JPY thousand as recorded in February 1970.
Various explanations for slow wage growth in Japan in given. The most recent explanation given by the Bank of Japan is the higher productivity of worker and low hours of working. Companies realize waste or labor and they have the ability to raise productivity and hence output received per workers (Lise et al., 2014). They are adapting the policy of abandoning low productive work to avoid extra labor cost. The reduced business hours restricts wage growth by lowering labor demand. This has direct impact on the level of inflation in terms of slowing the pace of inflation.
The level of production in the economy depends on the quality of its labor force or human capital. Human capital involves skill, education and training of the available labor force. A nation, rich in human capital will constitute high productivity and high growth rate (Manuelli & Seshadri, 2014). The level of education is reflected in its gross enrollment ratio.
The figure above shows the trend of gross enrollment ratio in Japan. The trends indicates a steady rise in the gross enrollment. This suggests an improvement in the education level.
Inflation symbolizes a situation of continuous upsurge in the price level. The level of inflation has significant importance for economic growth. A mild rise in the price level encouraged the producers to produce more as they can earn a high profit (Galí, 2015). In times of deflation, the economy shows a downturn.
No steady trend is observed in the price level. From 1960 to 1974 price level fluctuates around 4%. In 1975, the price level reached to a recorded high level of 22%. Following that year, price level started to decline at a rapid rate. The inflation rate fluctuates around 0 to 2 percent until 2008. In 2009, inflation rate declined largely and became negative. This had an adverse impact on growth rate. Inflation rate then improved slowly (Nishizaki, Sekine & Ueno, 2014).
Price level though revived from its privies level, but still it lags behind the target level set by Bank of Japan. Despite adaption of ease monetary policy, inflation rate below the target rate of 2%. Inflation less energy and fresh food has remained at a flat level. Energy prices though contributes to a rise in consumer price but it fails to push up the overall price level. In the beginning of 2017, inflation rate in Japan has started increasing. This revitalization has fuelled by the improved oil price and contributed to a boost in economic growth and the output gap gradually shrinks. The concern remains, as the improved scenario is oil dependent. The focus of the companies operating in Japan were to enhance productivity growth and make production cost or wages as least as possible (Shioji, 2015). This trend has continued since last few decades, resulting in a limited growth of wages. As income of the workers remain limited, demand is also restricted. The economy lacks any inflationary pressure either from demand side or from cost side. Bank of Japan sets a relatively low inflation target of 2%. However, still the economy is far behind achieving its price.
Nominal interest rate is the cost of borrowing capital or return on investment in absolute term. In the presence of price level, fluctuation real interest rate needs to be considered to trace the actual rate of return. This is the real interest rate, which equals nominal rate less inflation rate (Yi & Zhang, 2016). Hence, real interest rate depends on both the inflation rate and prevailing nominal rate.
The real interest rate declines continuously in Japan. The interest rate is much higher in Australia. This means cost of borrowing is much higher in Australia than that in Japan. The main driving factor for low real interest rate is the persistently low inflation rate. In 2015, the set interest rate was negative. Negative interest rate is a reversal of general economic rule. Here, a fee is imposed by the central bank on commercial banks. The objective is to put the funds into more productive use. So that the commercial banks can lend their money to business and household. The central bank of Japan has adapted the policy of negative interest rate. The BOJ has charged a fee of 0.1 percent on the portion of reserve they kept (Soble, 2016).
The objective for such a policy is to surge consumer prices that have been declining over the past few years. Declining prices have negative impact on company’s revenue. Firms fail to raise wage of the workers and carry out further investment in new projects (King & Low, 2014). The negative rates have made the money cheaper. However, the low rates fail to achieve the targeted inflation rate. The economy still running with deflationary pressure that by itself reduces the effectiveness of low interest rate. With a low price, firms refuse to take loans even at a very low cost.
Government expenditure in an economy is an important determinant of aggregate demand. In times of low demand government increase investment to provide fiscal stimulus. Government makes investment both in consumption and capital goods depending on the specific economic scenario.
Government expenditure in Japan is on an increasing trend. Japan is suffering with a persistently low inflation rate. The consumption pending had shattered because of an almost stagnant or slowly growing wage rate (Braun & Joines, 2015). In order to achieve economic growth demand needs to be enhanced. Government has increased its expenditure to induce consumption demand.
Domestic credit to private sector measures the financial assistance provided to the private companies by domestic financial institutions. An increasing share of private sector credit indicates a favorable condition for private companies (Lane & McQuade, 2014). Greater the access to credit more companies are encouraged to start their business in the nation.
The corporate tax structure in Japan divided companies under two categories – domestic company and foreign company. Domestic companies are those having their headquarters in Japan. Foreign companies are those not originated in Japan but only have their branch office in the country. Tax on domestic companies are computed based on their income worldwide (Hasegawa & Kiyota, 2017). The foreign companies are taxed on income gained from their operation in Japan. The rate of corporate tax is same for a subsidiary as that for a branch. The standard tax rate is 23.4% as local standard and applicable to companies exceeding capital of 100 million JPY.
Other taxes that corporates have to pay are local inhabitant tax, local enterprise tax and other effective tax rates. The local inhabitant tax differs based on size and location of the company. Local enterprises tax rate is defined as one based on income and factor (Hayao, 2014). There are three different components of factor-based taxation: a maximum tax rate of 3.6% imposed on taxable profit with a progressive structure, a value added rate of 1.2% and 0.5% of capital surplus and share capital. There is an effective tax rate of 30% applicable to a company having paid in capital over 100 million JPY in Tokyo (The Japan Tax Site, 2017). The tax liabilities of a foreign company is determined based on some factors. The first aspect is whether the foreign company possesses a taxable presence in Japan as indicated by the ownership of a permanent establishment. Once it is confirmed that the company has a permanent establishment then then it is considered as a taxable presence, the nature of the taxable presence observed and concerned to underlying source income in Japan.
The tax revenue earned in Australia is much higher than that in Japan. This has obvious implication that taxes in Australia is greater than the targeted nation giving another incentive for investing in Japan.
Government makes infrastructural investment in areas such as water service, construction or roads, communication facilities and such other. High investment in infrastructure implies strong position of government and leads to inflow of foreign funds.
Japan has considered huge investment for its infrastructural projects. The government plans to invest beyond its traditional investments on roads and infrastructure considering an ageing and shrinking population (Yoshino & Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2014). In 2013, the government sanctioned 10 trillion yen for the new infrastructure projects. The amount is equivalent to world’s investment on transport infrastructure every year. Government expenditure is regarded as a remedy to ongoing weaker growth and deflation trend. With such huge investment spending, many economists express concern that without improving growth potential such investment will only result in huge government debt to the already indebted government (Chen et al., 2015). The corresponding spending on infrastructure by Australian government is relatively lower.
Exchange rate indicates relative price of country’ currency with respect to other country’s currency. The movement of exchange rate determines the volume of trade and foreign investment. It is assumed that a foreign firm maximize its profit by taking the exchange rate of the host country in consideration subject to the source country of FDI (Amiti, Itskhoki & Konings, 2014). The theory suggests depreciation of currency attracts inflow of foreign fund and facilitates export of the host country.
No stable trend is found in the exchange rate between Australian dollar and Japan’s yen. This is because Japan change its exchange rate policy several times depending on the status of the economy. Previously, the policymakers in Japan believed to depreciate currency in order to increase export. However, the policy is not very effective for Japan as consumers make their purchase economically. This is the reason behind continuous deflationary pressure in Japan despite expansionary monetary and fiscal policy. Moreover, the strategy of weakening yen triggers a currency war that would to high global inflation worldwide and instability in the global economy. In recent years, Japan has adapted the strategy of strengthening Yen (Katz, 2015). The declining oil price reduces import bill in Japan turning the deficit trade balance to a surplus one. This gives strength to Yen. The inflation rate is continuously falling in Japan. A low interest rate means high real interest rate, strengthening the currency. However, Japan has went back to its devaluation strategy seeing export as the means of regaining growth rate.
Monetary policy is an instrument used by government to influence aggregate demand and control inflation. The central bank adjust the available money supply to influence demand and price level. The central monetary authority in Japan is Bank of Japan. BOJ sets the target of monetary policy. The aim is to achieve stability in the price level. In order to control the price level central bank influences interest rate thorough its operation in money market (Lee & Werner, 2017). With the objective of achieving a price stability, the target is to ensure a sound economic development.
The Japan’s economy is struggling with the problem of deflation. Bank of Japan set a targeted inflation rate of 2 percent. In order to achieve this, BOJ sort to easing monetary policy framework. In 2016, the central bank had kept its monetary policy unchanged for the last few years. It has reduced its targeted inflation forecast for the years 2017/18 and 2018/19. The interest rate has been kept on a hold to boost productive activity. The interest rate prevails at a rate of minus 0.1 percent. The yield rate of bonds are above 0 percent. The decision of the monetary authority suggests it continuous stress on giving monetary policy stimulus to the economy. This will continue until it attains the targeted 2 percent rate (Romer, 2014). The economy is moving towards moderate expansion. The strategy boosts spending of both household and corporate sector.
The Bank of Japan to combat deflation introduces a new monetary policy. The new policy is based on the yield curve. This is the newest policy in the history of monetary policy framework in Japan. Usually, BOJ uses the tool of negative interest rate as principal monetary policy tool. Under the new policy, central bank has kept the ten-year bond rate at zero. Under traditional policy, framework government usually focuses on the controlling short-term interest rate. Now, bank intends to steepen its yield curve that can increase the difference between long term and short-term yield of bonds. This is designed to free up more money to the commercial banks and hence widens the investment base.
The policies so far undertaken has not been very effective in controlling deflation and national debt in Japan remains high. The policy implementation is limited and some additional stimulus is needed to fully implement the expansionary monetary policy and gears up the economy.
The global financial crisis that stars in in United States has affected many other economies worldwide. The crisis has arisen because of a crash in the property market and affected the housing market of other nation. Housing market in Japan did not affect so much but the crisis severely affected the economy of Japan. The effect is much harder in Japan than that in US and or EU (Borio, 2014). The growth fell steeply because of a sharp decline in external demand. The decline in US demand manifested in Japan. The downturn in the external sector is not limited to Japan- US trade relation but the effect is more intensive. The export demand for intermediate good flows to Asian countries also reduced significantly.
Japan GDP contracted at a rate that is more than double of United States. Prior to crisis countries such as Japan, Taiwan and South Korea were engaged in exporting key components such as China, Vietnam and Thailand, which exported final goods to the United States. The trade triangle was likely to benefit the entire involved nation. At times of crisis, because of a slow growth rate US reduced its import. The decline in import demand leads to a considerable decline in exports of these countries.
The basket of Japan’s exported good mainly comprises of durable consumer goods and capital goods like electric machines, cars, machine tools and parts. The investment in capital goods such as plants equipment have declined following global downturn during 2008 (Chang et al., 2013). The global demand had shifted from high-end expensive goods to cheap products. This intervention and transformation of demand badly affected Japan’s export.
The effect of global financial crisis on Japan was not realized at immediate instances. Until fourth quarter of 2008, the trade scenario remained unchanged. However, when the effect was realized then the adverse effect GDP was very large.
At times of global economic crisis, the currency appreciated. In 2008, Yen was nearly 106% of its average in 2007. In 2009, it reached to 136%. Whenever currency appreciates, import becomes cheaper and boosts imports. This has an adverse impact on export by making export costlier. The dual impact of decline in global demand and yen appreciation largely reduces Japan’s export in fourth quarter of 2008.
Conclusion and Recommendation In this report, the investment decision of Woolworth in Japan is evaluated with focus given on general business environment as well as trends of some major macro variables. Japan welcomes private and foreign business in terms of providing different facilities like reduction in the corporate tax rate, focus on insolvency issue and settling a general body of corporation to look after different aspects related to business. These facilities will ease Woolworth’s investment in Japan. The genera business environment is not the only factor to be considered. The growth in Japan is slower than that of the Australia. The slow growth in Japan is resulted from low demand in the external sector, deflationary pressure in the economy and crisis in the financial sector. However, the growth is gradually reviving resulted from a rise in household spending. Household spends a significant portion of their income on food or grocery items. This is beneficial for Woolworth as it is going to face large consumer demand for their products. The recent trend of unemployment shows a declining trend. The gain in production activity and hike in export demand created many new job openings and helped to maintain a low unemployment rate. Another advantage of opening business in Japan it its falling wage rate. The firms in Japan has focused on reducing their cost of production by enhancing productivity. Low wage cost helps to start up a new store in Japan’s market by keeping operation cost low. The human capital investment in Japan is increasing because of an aging and shrinking population base. This is reflected from the rising trend of gross enrollment ratio. A cause of concern for Japan is its continuously declining inflation rate. The low price level restricted economic growth by restricting further investment. Bank of Japan has taken several steps to overcome the deflationary trend and revitalize the economy. Some improvement has already occurred but many is yet to come. Real interest rate in Japan is at a much lower level than that in Australia. The real interest rate is even negative in recent years followed by the central Bank’s policy of charging a negative interest rate to encourage investment. This indicates doing business in Japan is advantageous with a low borrow cost. Government is also supportive to private business. The availability of domestic credit to private sector shows an increasing trend. Japan maintained a well-defined tax structures for both domestic and foreign companies. The tax for foreign companies are computed based on their income sourced from Japan. The tax revenue earned in Australia is greater than that earned in Japan over the sane tine horizon. This has indication that a high as rate exists in Australia over Japan and give an additional edge of investing in Japan. A considerable investment on infrastructure is made by Japan attracting more investment. The exchange rate policy in Japan has gibes through phases of depreciation and appreciation. Currency depreciation is seen as a way of boosting export and counter deflation. To prevent yen appreciation BOJ has maintained a negative interest rate. As far as monetary policy is concern, central bank of Japan intends to maintain a stable policy and achieve a targeted inflation rate. In an attempt to achieve inflation target easing monetary policy is adapted. The objective is to increase money supply in the economy and attains a stable GDP growth rate. The global financial crisis affected Japan through the Channel of external sectors. The declining export demand from US and other Asian countries resulted in a massive decline in the net export balance. However, because of the strong financial sector the housing market remained unaffected unlike most of the economies.
It is recommendable for Woolworth to invest in grocery market of Japan. It is true that average wage in Japan is falling down and this reduces overall demand of the consumers. However, food and grocer items have inelastic kind of demand. Japan has a broad consumer base. Australia is one of the top three exporters of food items in Japan. Therefore, demand of food items likely to be less affected. The low wage will help the company to hire labors at a low cost. Bank of Japan helps the business by lowering the interest rate. This benefits the investors to borrow funds at a relatively cheap rate. The slow growth of prices can be a concern for the company but it is expected that Japan will soon overcome from this phase. The depreciated yen will increase export demand and increase sales. Finally, the unaffected housing market of Japan in times of global financial crisis indicated strong and stable financial position of Japan.
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