This report details the feasibility study and evaluation of a proposed real estate investment in NSW, in Newcastle City at Jesmond. Specifically, the report looks at the feasibility of constructing a 3 level mixed residential and commercial building at 16 Robert Street in Jesmond that will be used to provide accommodation to University students studying at Newcastle University. The project looks at putting up 105 accommodation rooms, motivated by the large student population at Newcastle University and the scarcity of adequate accommodation for these students. Further, the region (Newcastle) is touted a the next big growth area in real estate; this study therefore seeks to justify whether the proposed investment on 2500 square feet of land at 16 Jesmond street is feasible, by computing its cash flows, and net present value for an intended development and use of the facility for ten years, after which it will be sold off.
The ‘company’ is looking at making an investment into real estate; recently, here has been an upturn in the real estate sector in Newcastle in NSW; with analysts projecting that it is the next growth frontier for real estate. With a projected population growth of 33 % by the year 2016, the region will see a huge demand for real estate. In looking at the region, it was decided that Jesmond, a dormitory town for Newcastle City, and just 9.5 km from the Newcastle CBD, offered a good investment opportunity. This is because land rates are still lower than purchasing the same amount of land in within the Newcastle CBD. As such, a search returned a suitable piece f land, Number 16 Robert Street, Jesmond, measuring 2500 square meters. The land has straight edges and is rectangular with triangular shaped edges. Its shape makes it an ideal investment for real estate given that it will maximize utilization of space. The piece of land is 80% vacant, with an old building and a few structures touching the Robert Street road. The zoning for the areas means it can be used only as a residential area with rating of residential zone Type A. The piece of land can easily take 11 three bedroomed residential houses; however, the company wanted a different approach that would enable it serve the needs of the community better and attain higher returns. The University of Newcastle has a student population of 26615 in Newcastle City and at Jesmond, meaning this is a long term investment with guaranteed results. It is proposed that a student accommodation be built as well as a few commercial facilities where small restaurants, laundry businesses can be put up. The proposed development is a mixed use facility with three levels and an underground parking. Based on construction rates, the building will cost a total of $ 13.2 million to construct, including all other costs. The proposed building will be developed using solar technology and double envelope large windows for maximum natural lighting and to reduce air conditioning needs. Further, solar air conditioners will be installed and solar panels used to minimize energy consumption. Some of the anticipated risks include business, vacancy, environment, structural, project, management, and legal risks. Computing the IRR and NPV using the cash flow method shows that the business is viable; the IRR before tax is 12.2% with an NPV $ 8,931,854, while after tax, the IRR is 10.2% with an NPV of $ 5,530,440 using a discounted cash flow rate of 6%. the findings show that it is a viable business; the tax rate used is 30% with annual depreciation of 2.5%. selling off the facility after 10 years means it remains a very viable investment. The project will take 36 weeks to complete
Australia has a highly developed economy and is considered among the largest mixed economies globally, with a GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of $ 1.69 trillion (in Australian Dollars) (Holden, 2018). Considered in terms of wealth per adult, Australia is the second wealthiest country in the world, behind Switzerland, with a total wealth of $ 8.9 trillion as of 2017 (Pash, 2016). It is the 14th largest economy (national) in terms of GDP and is the 25th largest exporter of goods among the world national economies (Tasker, 2017). The country’s economy has consistently performed well, ensuring a sustained GDP growth for 26 years, with its last recession reported 27 years ago; even the global economic recession of 2007/2008 did not affect her economy (Kopf, 2017). The service sector accounts for a major portion of the country’s GDP, at 61% of total GDP and this sector is also the biggest employer, employing 79% of the total labor force as of 2017 (Garnett, 2015). Australia has the 16th largest stock exchange (the ASX) in the context of domestic market capitalization; the country also has the largest interest rate derivatives in the Asian region (Martin, 2016). The country’s economy is a fully liberalized free market economy. Its GDP grew by an average of 3.4% between 1999 and 2008, and by an average of 2.7% between 2009 and 2014 (‘Focus Economics’, 2017). In 2018, the country’s GDP id projected to grow by 2.7%, same for 2019 (Holden, 2018). The GDP growth is shown in the chart below;
Source: Trading Economics
Interest rates are dropping in Australia; coupled with steady economic growth and other indicators such as th weakening of the AUD, the real estate sector has benefited significantly. Sydney and Melbourne recorded the strongest property execution in 2015 – a pattern seen in 2016 and 2017, and expected to continue in 2018 (‘CB Richard Ellis’, 2018). Those sway from claiming easier investment rates need been specifically felt in the retail and private property sectors, same time further downstream benefiting office rates. The real estate sector has greatly benefited from lower overall interest rates, helping spur growth (‘Trading Economics’ 2017). According to Bleby (2015), the property market is now among the biggest industries in Australia, larger than mining, the financial services, home ownership and has doubled its contribution to the overall GDP in the past ten years. In 2016, the sector contributed 11.5% of GDP, equivalent to $ 182.5 billion and plans are underway to lobby for legislation that would promote its growth further
Jesmond is a a suburb located about 9.5 km West of the Newcastle central business district in New South Wales, Hunter Region. The suburb is a dormitory suburb of Newcastle as well as a commercial center and has residents that are both Australian and international; the majority of the international residents being students attending the nearby University of Newcastle. It is a multi cultured suburb because f the many international students studying at the University. It is characterized by several aged buildings and has a population of 2442 people living in 1144 dwellings (Butler et al., 2016), . However, the vast number of residents are students studying at the University of Newcastle, which had a total student population of 26615 students, located at the Newcastle City and Callaghan campuses. The demand for real estate in Newcastle is very high, especially residential rental houses in the area. The figure below shows the demand for rental houses in Newcastle;
The rental houses yields have also been on an upward trend in the past two years, and is expected to continue rising (‘Newcastle City Council’, 2018)
While Sydney has been the ‘king’ of real estate in Australia, Newcastle and its environs is the next big growth frontier, with the population of the city expected to grow by 33% by the year 2036. The city CBD has been revitalized, with the NSW government also making a $ 6.5 billion and improved amenities. Further, a new university wing has been developed and is attracting increasing numbers of international students. The median house prices in Sydney is $ 530000, which makes it an interesting real estate investment location. Further, with such high rent rates and many students, as well as a huge and rising demand for housing, Jesmond becomes an ideal place to invest in real estate, being just a short hop away from Newcastle CBD, and about ten minutes drive (half an hour walk, or 20 minutes cycling) from the Callaghan campus of the Newcastle university (Schipp, 2017) .
The company wishing to invest in the property is a relatively new real estate firm that has an Equity value of $ 7 million and $ 700 000 in cash for operations and investments. The company will make a significant investment in putting up the facility; the investment will also include the cost of acquiring the land and other legal requirements and stamps, drawing of building plans, and getting approvals from the local authorities to commence construction.
Jesmond is a transport junction and a dormitory town for Newcastle City; with the projected huge growth in population, and increasing demand for housing and accommodation within the wider Newcastle region, coupled with rising real estate prices, the location is ideal as an investment in real estate. It is expected that the prices of real estate in the region will continue to appreciate fast, and is a hot investment destination, that may surpass Sydney in the future. The chosen property is a vacant land, commercial grade investment, with a few old structures that will have to be brought down. Further, the facility is located at 16 Jesmond street in very close proximity to to Jesmond Public School. The facility is 2500 square meters with a large frontage of 22.6 meters (‘Century 21 Australia’, 2018).
The piece of land is located in 16 Robert street with a single 3 bedroom old house touching the tarmac and a large portion of the land being vacant. The land is flat with just a gentle slope towards the back, covered in grass, some shrubs, and a few trees. The land is well serviced with a road on the frontage and has services that include sewerage, water, and electricity (‘Newcastle City Council’, 2018). Based on its location, it only requires strategic development for maximum returns. The approach price for the facility if $ 700000, which is feasible and realistic for the intended investment, given that 80% of the property is void and ready for development.
The area is very close to the Jesmond Public school, it is also a walking distance to the Jesmond Shopping Center and is also a very short distance to the Newcastle University. This makes it a perfect site for development and indications show that it can take up to 12 town houses. The area is surrounded by other residential structures in its immediate neighborhood, and other surrounding facilities include public schools (Jesmond Public School, Jesmond Campus, Callaghna College, Heaton Public School, Wallsend Public School, Lambton Public School, Plattsburg Public School, John Hunter Public School, and Waratah West Public School). There are also severa private schools nearby, including St. Johns Primary School, Aspect Hunter School, Our Lady of Victories primary, Waratah West, St. Patrick’s Primary School, St. Phillip’s Christian College, Corpus Christi primary School, and Margaret Jurd College. The location is surrounded by various amenities that include Parks such as McClure Reserve, Hugo Reserve, and Jesmond Park. The available services include the Jesmond Post Office, New Lambton Post Office, Lambton Post Office, and the Wallsend Post Office. Transport is readily available with both pubic road and train transport, a good roads network suitable for private transport, cycling, or even walking to the nearby facilities (‘Century 21 Australia’, 2018). The images below show the site
The facility has rectangular shapes and triangular shapes on some edges, making it an ideal developers’ site due to mostly straight edges and predominantly geometric shapes. The land is 2500 square meters, with a lettable area of of 92% 2300 square meters (see Appendix I for plans for the building). The proposed buildings on three stories will create a total floor area of 6900 square meters, which will provide a very large floor space for utilization (‘Century 21 Australia’, 2018).
The area is zoned by the Newcastle Municipal Council as a residential area Zoning A, with the primary land use being a residential area.
Given the potential for the area, a large student population, and demand for residential property (Kelly, 2015), the proposed development is for hostel type developments to be used for external accommodation by students at the Newcastle University. The proposed development is a mixed use property, with a few commercial facilities that can be rented out for a restaurant, ice cream parlor, stationery shops, amongst other small businesses. This is because the area is highly multi cultural (Branley, 2012), and there will be demand for restaurants and eateries to cater for the cosmopolitan global populations and cultures living and studying at the university. Being a primarily accommodation property, different room configurations can be achieved to cater for both undergraduate and post graduate students studying at the University. These will be small size apartments/ rooms that are self contained with some sections having common kitchens for students, and some being fully self contained living apartments with in built kitchens. The envisaged outcome is an accommodation structure that will have several rooms to maximize returns. With the University of Newcastle having received a recent upgrade and with future prospects for growth, the proposed facility offers long term rental incomes, that are on average higher than residential rental properties.
The facility will have three floors for the residential apartments and a similar number of floors for the commercial section. The accommodation section will have an underground parking developed for student parking and to maximize the use of the land. The commercial section will be located on the road frontage touching the Robert Street road covering the area that currently has an old building on it, with an access t the interior separated by a parking lot. The accommodation section will be at the rear of the building and will have a total of 105 accommodation units, ranging in size from 36 square meter rooms to 60 square meter accommodation rooms. The commercial center will cover a total of 1450 square meters on all three floors. The services to be offered will be accommodation as the primary service, with commercial space for various related services such as restaurants, shops, and parlors for ice cream and other light retail businesses. This will be a medium development project in terms of scale.
Primarily, the targeted consumer for the facility are ideally University students and college students studying at the Newcastle University and students from surrounding colleges, who are not residents of Jesmond (Kelly, 2015). Given its location and the surrounding residential areas, a few commercial facilities such as Landry shops, small restaurants offering various types of cuisine such as oriental and Chinese to cater to the metropolitan and multicultural student population in the area, as well as specialty shops such as surf hire businesses will add to its allure and increase incomes for the developer. Potential clients include;
Students-permanent and residential students
Business people seeking to start small businesses like theme restaurants
Tourists
The site will be developed by first undertaking a site research and evaluation and agreeing on the final financial payment terms for the facility. Financing will be arranged and this will be followed by a survey of the area to establish its exact size for the purposes of planning. After getting the relevant legal documents, an architect will be engaged to develop designs for the commercial facilities as well as the residential areas. After finance having been secured and plans developed for the facility, the architectural firm will then undertake a costing schedule to determine the cost of the facility in terms of materials and services. Once the plans have been developed, approvals will be sought and relevant permits obtained, before interested contractors (and sub contractors)are invited to express interest and give a quotation. A project execution team will be formed at the initial phase and team members added as and when needed. The contractors will be evaluated and qualified contractor(s)awarded the contract to start works. The first job will be securing the area, before demolishing the existing building and removing the debris from site. This will be followed by ground preparation and then the construction of the facilities, it is envisaged the construction will take a total of 36 months to have the building ready. Interior design will take a month, where furniture and other facilities will be sourced and installed on the facility, ready for use. The chart below shows the schedule for the project
The construction costs for the building will be computed per square meter and will include all costs of construction; for materials, labor, energy, and facilities/ amenities, as well as finishes. The proposed finishes is medium quality finishes, this will result in rational costs for construction of the facility. Further, costs for professional services, including the surveying of the area, incidentals, licenses, the cost of acquiring the land, as well as professional fees for the architect and the actual contractor construction costs are computed as shown in the table below;
|
Description |
Unit Cost in $ |
Area/ Quantity |
Total in $ |
|
Site Surveying |
4000 |
||
|
Incidentals and licenses/ stamps |
2500 |
||
|
Cost of land acquisition |
2500 sqm |
1050000 |
|
|
Demolition and disposal of debris |
25000 |
||
|
Construction for commercial section |
1294 |
1350 sqm |
1746900 |
|
Construction for residential/accommodation section |
1458 |
4900 sqm |
7144200 |
|
Fixtures, fittings, furniture |
2000000 |
||
|
Professional fees |
10% |
1217260 |
|
|
Total |
13189860 |
The average total cost of developing the property, taking into account incidences and possibly delays, will be $ 13.2 million
The company has an equity contribution of 8.5 million, plus another $ 700000 in cash, giving the company a total capital structure of 9.2 million; the company will still have a shortage of $ 4 million. The company, with a well detailed and promising business plan, will seek financing from a banking or other financial institution for a medium term loan of five to seven years. This will fund construction and other works. The acquisition of the facility will be financed by the company through equity contributions, and this will lead to an increase in the asset value of the company, and improve its balance sheet. The project will create jobs for about 120 people, directly and indirectly, and will be able to pay off its loan and interest and be able to break even in a short period, given the demand for housing and accommodation in the area.
Given the increasing energy demands in Australia and the shortage of its supply, the building will be developed to incorporate as many environmentally sustainable features as possible, to reduce the cost of ownership and operation, and importantly, reduce material use and energy consumption.
For starters, double sided glass will be used liberally in order to allow as much natural lighting as possible and to reduce energy needs for cooling during hot periods, due to a double envelop window.
The labor used will be in accordance with the NSW labor laws, the anti discrimination acts, and the work place health and safety laws and standards to ensure full compliance.
Noise pollution will be avoided during construction through sound deflecting enclosing materials used to secure the construction site. Care will be taken to minimize dust and debris during the construction of the facility.
The design will be done so that few materials are used; Auto CAD and BIM (Building Information Management) features will be incorporated into the construction to minimize wastage and ensure efficient life cycle management of the building (Gerrish et al., 2017).
This will be of great focus in the construction and life cycle management of the building. Solar roofing material (Tesla) will be used in the development of the roof and/ or solar panels used for water heating and for lighting purposes so that the building will have a low or net negative carbon foot print. Double envelop windows will be used, with large windows to allow natural lighting and reduce air conditioning needs during the hot weather. Further, external air conditioners will be solar powered to further reduce air conditioning costs; the aim is to depend as little as possible on mains power supply, manly for running the lifts. BIM will be used for life cycle energy management of the structure to further maximize energy conservation (Gerrish et al., 2017)
|
Facility |
Unit |
Total (Per annum) |
|
Commercial center |
$ 22 psq (per square foot per annum) |
343368.74 |
|
Accommodation |
$ 200 (average) per room/ unit, per week |
10080000.00 |
|
Gross annual income |
1351368.74 |
|
|
Maintenance |
10% of income |
120000 |
|
Total Annual Income |
1231369 |
The proposed investment is that the company will operate the facility for a period of 10 years, and thereafter, dispose it or sell to acquire a bigger and better commercial building, or invest elsewhere, considering the region will see a huge demand for housing in the next 20 years, with population expected to grow at an annual rate of 33 % (Schipp, 2017), (Devine, 2017). To acquire the facility and develop it, the company will need a total of 13.5 million; it can raise 7.7 million so the firm will need a loan of 5.8 million to successfully complete the construction. The financing will be financed on a 68 to 32 percentage financing, equity to debt ratio, that is; $ 9.2 million will be contributed from equity and $ 4.3 million be obtained through debt as a bank loan. The loan will attract an interest of 4.87% per annum, on a reducing rate. Maintenance and repairs will cost 10% of the estimated annual earnings for the facility. The income is expected to increase by an average of 7.5 % per annum as the area has a high demand for housing and accommodation. The property will appreciate in value by an average of 7.18% per annum, the value at the end of the ten year period will be $ 26386252
Irr And Npv- Before Tax
The IRR before tax was computed using the cash flow method in MS Excel; the rate was found to be 12.2% with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $ 8,931,854 using a discounted rate of 6% per annum
After tax, the IRR was again computed using the cash flow method it was found to be 10.2% with a Net Present Value (NPV) of $ 5,530,440 using a discounted rate of 6% per annum
From the analysis of the NPV and IRR, the project is sound, given that its NPV after tax is $4,057,046, which is 42% of the initial project investment. However taxation has the effect of significantly reducing the net present value and the IRR, as taxation ‘eats’ into the earnings na cash flows from the project.
The project will no doubt face some risks including massive scope changes that lead o a rise in the overall costs, poor demand or non use of the facility, poor workmanship, and abandonment of the project midway before it is completed. Other risks include being sued by neighbors for environmental violations and employees getting injured/ hurt, or fatalities resulting from the construction works requiring massive compensation.
|
Risk type |
Description |
|
Business risk |
The business suffers losses due to competition from cheaper prices |
|
Vacancy risk |
A type of risk experienced because the units do not get tenants/ occupants |
|
Environment risk |
Taxation becomes too high or regulations require the building to be demolished |
|
Structural risk |
Poor workmanship requiring major re-works or the building comes down/ collapses |
|
Project management risks |
Project abandoned before completion |
|
Legal risks |
Non compliance with laws and regulations |
These risks have various impacts and probabilities of occurrence, and this can be evaluated using the risk matrix below.
|
Likelihood/ Severity |
Very unlikely |
Unlikely |
Possible |
Likely |
Very likely |
|
High impact |
Project management risks |
Business risk Structural risk |
Vacancy risk |
||
|
Major impact |
Environment risk |
Legal risks |
|||
|
Medium impact |
|||||
|
Low impact |
|||||
|
No impact |
The project is sustainable, given that the rates used to compute capital appreciation and rates of rent increase are modest. With an expected population explosion and high demand for accommodation, the annual rent rates may rise at a rate higher than what has been used, meaning that the project is likely to yield higher returns. Further, with an NPV of $ 5.3 million and an IRR of 10.2%, the investment is sound as it will give much higher returns than investing in government bonds of the stock market for a similar time period.
University residential accommodation rates at $ 225 per week
Home stay placement by the university at a cost of $ 250 per week, including three meals
Home placement by the university at a cost of $ 235 per week for 16 meals, that means lunch is excluded
Looking at these rates, the investment will provide accommodation for a self contained room at the rate of $ 180 (on average) as some rooms will cost up to $ 250 depending on configuration while others will cost as low as $ 140 per week. This makes the business plan plausible and cost effective, given the self catering option for students with either an inbuilt kitchen per room or a common kitchen area where up to ten rooms share a common kitchen.
References
Bleby, M. (2015). Property now Australia’s biggest industry, Property Council says. [online] Financial Review. Available at: https://www.afr.com/real-estate/commercial/property-now-australias-biggest-industry-property-council-says-20150527-ghajmt [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Branley, A. (2012). Jesmond Public’s multicultural cookbook. [online] Newcastle Herald. Available at: https://www.theherald.com.au/story/283700/jesmond-publics-multicultural-cookbook/photos/ [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Butler, D., et al. (2016). Geography NSW syllabus for the Australian curriculum stage 5 years 9 and 10 pack (Textbook and Interactive Textbook). Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
‘CB Richard Ellis’ (2018). 2016 Australia Real Estate Market Outlook Report. [online] CBRE. Available at: https://www.cbre.com/research-and-reports/apac-real-estate-market-outlook-2016/australia [Accessed 19 Jan. 2018].
‘Century 21 Australia’ (2018). Development Site (Commercial) For Sale – 16 Robert Street, Jesmond. [online] Century 21 Australia. Available at: https://www.century21.com.au/property/commercial/buy/nsw/2299/jesmond/423424 [Accessed 19 Jan. 2018].
Devine, A. (2017). Newcastle is ‘better for investors’. [online] NewsComAu. Available at: https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/sydney-nsw/sydney-investors-are-buying-in-newcastle-for-better-returns/news-story/799f4aa52d2ae53cac3a4d3aa39d034e [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
‘Focus Economics’ (2017). Australia Economy – GDP, Inflation, CPI and Interest Rate. [online] FocusEconomics | Economic Forecasts from the World’s Leading Economists. Available at: https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/australia [Accessed 19 Jan. 2018].
Garnett, A. (2015). Australia’s ‘five pillar economy’: mining. [online] The Conversation. Available at: https://theconversation.com/australias-five-pillar-economy-mining-40701 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Gerrish, T., Ruikar, K., Cook, M., Johnson, M., Phillip, M. and Lowry, C. (2017). BIM application to building energy performance visualisation and management: Challenges and potential. Energy and Buildings, [online] 144, pp.218-228. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378778817308770.
Holden, R. (2018). Vital Signs: Australia heads into 2018 with mixed economic signals. [online] The Conversation. Available at: https://theconversation.com/vital-signs-australia-heads-into-2018-with-mixed-economic-signals-89144 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Kelly, M. (2015). Students cram for accommodation. [online] Newcastle Herald. Available at: https://www.theherald.com.au/story/2948274/students-cram-for-accommodation/ [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Kopf, D. (2017). Australia’s economy is on a 25-year win streak. China determines how much longer it goes. [online] Quartz. Available at: https://qz.com/924126/australias-economy-is-on-a-25-year-winning-streak-and-china-will-determine-how-much-longer-it-goes/ [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Martin, W. (2016). The 17 most valuable stock exchanges in the world. [online] Business Insider. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com/most-valuable-stock-exchanges-in-the-world-2016-9?IR=T [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
‘Newcastle City Council’ (2018). Jesmond. [online] Newcastle City Council. Available at: https://www.newcastle.nsw.gov.au/Living/Our-City/Suburbs/Jesmond.aspx [Accessed 19 Jan. 2018].
Pash, C. (2016). The 10 countries with the highest average wealth. [online] Business Insider Australia. Available at: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-10-countries-with-the-highest-average-wealth-2016-11 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
Schipp, D. (2017). Forget Sydney, this is the place to buy. [online] NewsComAu. Available at: https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/buying/forget-sydney-newcastle-is-the-next-big-thing-to-boom/news-story/80d972d2b908517bcef2960dd8856721 [Accessed 19 Jan. 2018].
Tasker, B. (2017). Aust economy to be world’s 11th biggest. [online] Theaustralian.com.au. Available at: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/aust-economy-to-be-worlds-11th-biggest/news-story/f1a0fba3eaa22bac8e3be2c00329ec19 [Accessed 21 Jan. 2018].
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