Impact Of Interest Rates On Australian Stock Market – Business Interest Flow

Impact of Interest Rate of the Stock Market

Describe about the Business Stock Market for Business Interest Flow.

The research topic is to examine “what is the impact of the high interest rates on the Australian stock market”. In order to effectively resolve the research issue, in-depth understanding will be developed by exploring the existing literature. The available literature will be explored by considering the following topics, which are based on the identified research questions:

Assessment of the impact of interest rates on the stock market.

Relationship among the interest rate, cash flow, and value of stocks.

Challenges that are faced by Australian companies due to volatile interest rates.

Additionally, the below are the hypothesis that would be considered throughout the completion of this study.

Hypothesis 1: Interest rates negatively affects the stock market by impacting on returns and stock prices.

Hypothesis 2: There is a negative relationship exists among interest rates, return on the stock, and cash flow.

Hypothesis 3: Volatile interest rate creates several challenges for the companies.

The term interest rate is defined by Jha (2011), as a cost and expenditure incurred by an enterprise for borrowing fund. It is an important element of borrowing costs. Borrowing costs include different charges, and interest on borrowing money and bank overdrafts as an adjustment of interest cost in accounting. The borrowing cost or interest rate are fluctuated and depends on the demand of money in the market and on Federal Reserve monetary policy. If the demand of loan and money increased then it will prompt banks to increase the charges on borrowing money that will raise the borrowing cost of money. Here, the loan or borrowed money assumed as a product and the interest rate known as its price, where the price of a product depends on the demand of that product. It is also depicted by Reifner and Schroder (2012), that the interest on long term debts and short term debts are included in borrowing cost as incurred cost by an individual and an organisation. If, an organisation is incurring additional costs such as commission, brokerage, charges of stamp duties, and any other related costs for the arrangement or collection of required capital, then this part of cost will be calculated as a fraction of borrowing cost. Interest rate is the important element of borrowing cost. Therefore, if the interest rate increases then borrowing cost will also increase.

Interest rate directly affects stock market because the stock price depends on the company’s profitability and performance. In contrast to this, Rooij et al (2011) said that company pays its borrowing cost from its profitability which affects its returns. Therefore, if the interest rate increases then it will directly affect the company’s profitability as a result of high borrowing cost. In other words, when interest increases then the company needs to pay more for borrowed money, which will lead to low profitability. In this situation, the stock price of the company may also drop. On the other hand, if interest rate declines then the borrowing money for companies will be cheaper in result of low borrowing cost. The lower borrowing cost can influence the stock price of the company as a rise in stock price.

Evaluation of the Relationship exists among Interest Rates, Return On The Stock, And Cash Flow

In addition, Osborne (2014) notified that there is a significant relation between interest rate and stock market which is not simple to illustrate. The interest rate works as strength for the stock market as well as weakness. Usually, a person seeks to safety and good return. At the time, when interest rates go down then people are unwilling to put their money in banks and more likely they are willing to invest in other obsession like gold or stock market for better return. The lower interest rates makes cheaper to borrowing money. Due to this reason, the investors pay less for borrowing money that increased profits. Therefore, the lower interest rate influences stock market and works as a strength to increase the performance of stock market and nation’s currency. On the other hand, if the interest rate increases then it reflects theory of economics as cash become more expensive and the prices of stocks may go down. The higher interest may reduce the flow of cash in market and increase the borrowing costs for companies. As a result of this, the profitability of the company as well as performance will decrease. Moreover, the decreased performance will determine that the higher interest rate is a weakness for stock market.

At the same time, it is evaluated from the study by Nissim and Penman (2003) that the changes in the interest rates are related with the stock returns negatively. They also argued that the negative impact is mainly associated with the changes in the discount rate as an impact of the interest rate consequently affecting stock market. Furthermore, the authors also contended that although the interest rate changes are related to subsequent earnings in a positive manner, however the changes in the earnings are not adequate to compensate the changes in the required return. It is the reason that the net impact of interest rates changes on the stock market is negative 

Concurrently, Madura (2008) also supports the views of the above authors by stating that the risk-free interest rate is one of the most important economic forces driving prices of the stock market. The author also contended that the relationship between stock prices and interest rates is not constant over time, however when the interest rates increased significantly, there can be seen a decline in the most of the biggest stock markets. Additionally, the author also illustrated that in the late 1990s, the rise in the stock market was partly assigned to the low rates of interest during that period. It shows that the rising interest rates have a negative impact on the stock market or vice versa. Thus, on the basis of above authors’ views, it can be discussed that interest rates negatively impact on the stock prices due to reduction in the total earnings and firm’s profitability position.

At the same time, the study by Liu, Di Iorio and De Silva (2014) also suggests that the short term and long term investment rate can create the significant impact on the stock market in Australia. It is because it affects the growth of cash flows and earnings as well as required return on the investment. Thus, it is clear that interests rates have an impact on the Australian stock market as well as stock markets in other countries.

Moreover, on the basis of above discussion, it is analyzed that the hypothesis-1 is true as the interest rates negatively impacts on the stock market. It is because it is evaluated that the interest rates have an effect on the behavior of investors and consumers as well as stock market. It can be discussed that the price of a share fluctuated as a result of expectations of people about the company. For instance, if the company is going back in cutting its growth and generating less profits with high debt expenses due to higher interest rates then the future cash flow of the company will drop. This will lead to lower stock price of the company and lower returns on investments. It can also be analyzed that if most of the companies are facing a declining phase in their share prices then the index of stock market will go downward. At the same time, if an investor gets financial expansion at cheaper interest rate with high returns on investments it will lead to higher stock prices and upward market index. Thus, it can be concluded that the interest rate has a great impact on the stock market by impacting on return of investment and stock prices.

In the views of Reilly and Brown (2011) there is not a direct and uniform relationship exists among interest rates, cash flows and the stock prices. They argued the reason behind this is that along with the changes in the interest rates, the likely cash flows from stocks can change and it is difficult to determine that whether the changes in the cash flows will offset or increase the interest rates’ changes. The authors explained three potential scenario by considering an increase in the inflation rate in order to determine the relationship among all these variable.

The Positive Scenario: As discussed by Reilly and Brown (2011), due to rising inflation, interest rate increases and concurrently business earnings experienced growth as to cover the increased cost, companies are able to increase prices. In this situation, prices of the stock are likely to be fairly stable as the negative effect of rising required rate of return can be offset completely or partially by the increase in the dividends and earnings resulting in the increase in the stock value.

Mildly Negative Case: In this scenario, due to inflation, required return and interest rates increase but at the prior rate, it is expected that cash flows continue to grow with the assumption of small increases in the price as compared to increase in the interest rates and the inflation (Reilly and Brown, 2011). This would cause to the decrease in the stock price due to increase in the required return, and constant growth rate of dividend.

Negative Scenario: As a result of inflation, the required return and interest rates increase, while the cash flows’ growth decreases because during the inflation period, the production cost increases, but many companies are not able to enhance prices at all resulting in major decrease in profit margins. Further, stock prices will decrease significantly because required return will increase and growth will decrease (Reilly and Brown, 2011).

It is clear from the above discussion that the changes in the rate of interest affects cash flow position, required return, and earnings that further affects stock market. It also indicates that relationship between stock price and interest rates is not direct. Moreover, the authors also argued that the impact of changes in the interest rate on stock prices depends on what caused the interest rate changes and this event’s impact on the alternative common stocks’ expected cash flows (Reilly and Brown, 2011). Overall, it can be stated that between interest rates and return on stocks, generally there has been a negative relationship exists. Additionally, it can also be stated that although negative relationship can be true in the context of overall market, however, there can be some industries, which may have positive earnings and cash flow against the changes in the interest rates (Reilly and Brown, 2012).

Concurrently, to define the relationship among all these variables, Tas (2008) stated that a negative relationship can be expected between stock prices and interest rates as per the theory of arbitrage. It is because the present value of firms’ future cash flows decreases due to higher real interest rates that further causes reduction in the stock prices. The study by Oxelheim and Wihlborg (2008) supports the views of Tas (2008) by stating that  there are three reasons due to which changes in the economic value and cash flows occur. In this, the first reason is that changes in the interest rate affect the cost of capital of firms and therefore, impact on the discount rate applied to future cash flows and current interest costs. Secondly, many companies’ products’ demand depends on the interest rates because the cost of credit impacts on the demand. Lastly, there are also other macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rate, etc, that also tend to be correlated with the interest rates. Thus, it can be stated that all the three terms are related with each-other.

In contrast, Madura (2008) argued that there are three kinds of factors including economic, firm-specific, and market oriented that affect the stock price. In this, the economic factors include economic growth, interest rates, and exchange rate that affect stock prices due to impact on the cash flows of the firms. Thus, it shows that all the three terms such as interest rate, stock prices and cash flows are related to each-other and changes in the one variable significantly impacts on the other variables.

Overall, based on the above authors’ views, it can be analyzed that the second hypothesis “there is a negative relationship exists among interest rates, return on the stock, and cash flow” is true. It is because it is assessed that continuous increase in the interest rates negatively affects future cash flows that further cause a decrease in the stock prices due to the decrease in the investors’ trust. Additionally, based on the above discussion, it can also be concluded that interest rate is an important variable that affects both companies and consumers ability to take credit from the market. Moreover, it can also be discussed that interest rates have the potential to affect firms’ cash flow as well as stock prices.

The volatility of interest rates creates several challenges for the companies around the world. At the same time, it is also a key indicator for the stock market and performance of the company. In the words of Homer and Sylla (2011), the word volatility may be defined as a measure of variability over a particular time of period. The volatility in interest rate can be measured in different ways like how much the rate of interest moves down or up on an average basis, measure through standard deviation, and variance. But essentially, measure through: how the interest rate tends to down and up on an average basis over a specific time period is widely used to calculate the interest rate. Mclnerney and Zastawniak (2015) depicted that due to volatile interest rates in the economy, it is difficult to make financial planning for business entities. It is because due to continuous changes in the interest rates, companies faces many financial issues related to borrowing capital or maintain a sustained capital structure that further affect on the business profitability. The main reason is that it becomes hard to plan and predict profits if the rate of interest on borrowed capital is variable. In Australia, volatility in interest rates is used through many business cycles and boom which resulted in rapid inflation in the economy.

Thus, in relation to the third hypothesis, it is analyzed that the companies face many challenges due to volatility interest rates. It is because interest rates directly affect the financial position and financial stability of the company. The challenges such as pricing products, maintain growth rate, manage borrowing costs and cost of capital are generally faced by the companies in the situation of volatile interest rates. According to Malley (2014), in the situation of volatility, it becomes difficult to maintain growth of the company and return on investment. For the reason, the companies face different borrowing costs and operating costs which affect the profitability of the company. Additionally, due to unnecessary volatility of interest rates the companies face challenge about planning to adopt a more vigilant approach for their hiring policies in a significant way. It makes difficult to take decisions related to financial investments. Furthermore, a volatile interest rate increases the volatility in economy and in a volatile economy a business faces many risks related to its operational activities. The business firm faces risk of long term uncertainties that make strategic planning complicated. The stable and low interest rates are helpful for the companies to increase their leverage. But, in the situation of volatility, many corporate left susceptible and faced a challenge to manag their financial risks.

Moreover, Chadha and Holly (2011), depicted that if the interest rate increases it will make companies less price competitive in the global market. It is because due to the increase in the interest rates, companies cannot make an appropriate pricing strategy because it affects the company’s profitability and balance sheet. It may be illustrated as diminished export orders, fewer jobs, and lower profits of the company. For example, the decline in export orders creates the challenge of managing business certainty in the competitive market. Thus, it can be concluded that the volatile interest rate is not good for companies because it affects the cost of capital and the financial stability of companies and leads to an unstable capital structure. It can also be stated that many challenges are faced by companies due to the interest rate changes resulting on impacting their profitability position and long-term survivability.

Year	Health Care Companies	Sales (US$ millions)	Share Prices 30th June ($)	Dividend per share
2015	Ansell	$1645	$24.09	8.4%
2014	$1590	$19.83	12.1%
2013	$1373	$17.63	10.2%
2015	Cochlear Limited	941.9	80.15	190
2014	820.9	61.70	254
2013	715.0	61.71	252
2015	(CSL Limited Australian $)	5733	86.47	1.39
2014	5459	66.55	1.15
2013	5335	61.58	0.95

(Annual Report, 2015)

Conclusion

After examining the literature on impact of the interest rates on the stock market, it can be concluded that both terms are associated with each-other. It can be concluded that the changes in the interest rates negatively impacts on the stock market. It is because the interest rate changes affect the required rate of return, future cash flows, and firm’s profitability and earning position consequently affecting the stock market. For example, it can be stated that the increase in the interest rate reduces the cash flows’ growth, and increase the required return  causing a decline in the stock market. In addition, it can also be concluded that the changes in the interest rates create several challenges such as unstable capital structure, difficult to pricing the product, and preserve the growth rate. Thus, it becomes essential to maintain stable interest rate in an economy to ensure the success of the companies as well as the stock market.

Additionally, it can also be concluded that all the hypothesis are proved. It is because it is found in relation to the first hypothesis that the interest rates changes affect negatively the stock market by impacting on the prices of the stock as well as returns. Similarly, second hypothesis can also be proven as it is found that a negative relationship exists among the variables namely cash flow, interest rates, and the stock market. Lastly, the third hypothesis can also be proven as it is found that companies face various challenges due to the changes in the interest rate.

References

Annual Report (2015) Available at: https://www.ansell.com/-/media/Files/Ansell/Documents/Ansell-SAR-2015_web.ashx?la=en-US [Accessed: 10th October, 2016].

Annual Report (2015) Available at: https://www.cochlear.com/wps/wcm/connect/2a3956c0-f09d-4ce7-a8c9-8b0ddccf1999/en_corporate_annualreport2015_financial_1.54mb.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CONVERT_TO=url&CACHEID=2a3956c0-f09d-4ce7-a8c9-8b0ddccf1999 [Accessed: 10th October, 2016].

Annual Report (2015) Available at: https://www.csl.com.au/docs/99/1023/CSL_AR_2015_sec,1.pdf [Accessed: 10th October, 2016].

Chadha, J. and Holly, S. (2011) Interest Rates, Prices and Liquidity: Lessons from the Financial Crisis. Melbourne: Cambridge University Press.

Homer, S. and Sylla, R. (2011) A History of Interest Rates. Sydney: John Wiley & Sons.

Jha, S. (2011) Interest Rate Markets: A Practical Approach to Fixed Income. Australia: John Wiley & Sons.

Madura, J. (2008) Financial Institutions and Markets. USA: Cengage Learning EMEA.

Malley, C. (2014) Bonds without Borders: A History of the Eurobond Market. Sydney: John Wiley & Sons.

McInerney, D. and Zastawniak, T. (2015) Stochastic Interest Rates. Melbourne: Cambridge University Press.

Nissim, D.  and Peman, S. H. (2003) The Association between Changes in Interest Rates, Earnings, and Equity Values. Contemporary Accounting Research, 20(4), pp. 775–804.

Osborne, M. (2014) Multiple Interest Rate Analysis: Theory and Applications. Sydney: Springer.

Oxelheim, L. and Wihlborg, C. (2008) Corporate Decision-Making with Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Performance and Risk Management. Oxford University Press.

Reifner, U. and Schroder, M. (2012) Usury Laws: A Legal and Economic Evaluation of Interest Rate Restrictions in the European Union. Australia: Books on Demand.

Reilly, F. K. and Brown, K. C. (2011) Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management. USA: Cengage Learning. 

Tas (2008) Essays on Exchange Rate Risk, Asset Returns and Trade Flows in East Asian Emerging Market Economies. USA: ProQuest.

Van Rooij, M., Lusardi, A., and Alessie, R. (2011) Financial literacy and stock market participation, Journal of Financial Economics, 101(2), pp. 449-472.