The Texas high plains are spread over a large area which is approximately 22 million acres. The region is designated as a Texas panhandle and the region has a semiarid grassland, treeless, and nearly a level area. During the early part of the 1900s, development of the region took place with the rural electrification and it lead to the advent of the pumping technologies. The pumping technologies helped in the tapping of the Ogallala Aquifer for the purpose of irrigation and this particularly made possible the row crop (cotton) cultivation. Presently, about 25 percent of the cotton production comes from this region. It is important to note that in the Texas high plains, the region receives annually an average rainfall of 18inches (Sophocleous, 2012). This study deals with the research question of How do extreme weather events like drought affect cotton production in the high plains of Texas? What are the possible management practices to mitigate the impact of climate change on cotton production? How much do spend on pumping underground water for irrigation purposes? Is there any relationship between crop insurance and Farmer’s attitude towards management practices in cotton production? The High Plains of Texas is selected for the study because it place is the major producer of cotton and it currently faces issues related to the drought. If the questions are left unanswered then that might lead to issues like failure of crops due to rising incident of drought. The research question explicitly deals with the how cotton production gets affected due to the drought conditions, various factors like the rainfall and the geography plays a major in shaping the cultivation of the crops. The possible mitigation strategies pertain to the judicious usage of the groundwater from the already strained source of water. Pumping of the underground water for the purpose of irrigation again depends on the geography of the area and how well ground water recharge the groundwater aquifer. The change in attitude of the farmers towards crop management practices due to the crop insurance shapes the over cultivation of the cotton crops. The philosophy of the cultivators here adheres to accrue maximum benefit from the provision of failed crop. The research will contribute towards the better understanding of the North Plains of Texas and how the cotton cultivation can be improved considering the drought condition (Crosbie et al., 2013).
Majority of drought can reduce the crop hectarage and crop yields due to the less soil moisture and less water available for the growth of the crops. It is also important to note that during the times of drought, farmers reduce the crop hectarage and emphasise only on the drought tolerant crops. In Texas the four major crops that are grown are sorghum, wheat, wheat, corn and cotton (figure 1). The production is crop is more sensitive towards the precipitation in comparison to temperature. Cotton is mostly grown in the high plains climatic regions. In the year 2011, 41 percent more cotton is grown in the high plains in comparison to the year 2008. However, during the drought periods of 2011 to 2013, the hectarage of cotton reduced by 21 percent in the high plain region of Texas. Cotton production got reduced in all the climatic regions and not just in High plains. Also, the areas under the cotton reduced by 4 percent after the periods of drought from 2013 to 2016 and this percentage is more in comparison to the dataset of 2013. Studies have indicated that the drought has severely impacted the production of cotton in comparison to the other major crops (Ray, Fares & Risch, 2018).
Figure 1: climatic zones and the cultivation of the four major crops in Texas [source: Ray, Fares & Risch, 2018]
Figure 2: Cotton cultivation in the High plains of Texas [source: Ray, Fares & Risch, 2018]
The figure 2 gives a clear depiction that the irrigated cotton reached to a low level in the year 2011, but it again increased in the year 2012 to 2013. These two years had the moderate drought and thus had less impact on the growth. The irrigated cotton showed higher rates of production in comparison to the rain fed crops. Overall studies indicate that the drought has greater impact on the production of cotton than the rain fed cultivation method. Studies indicate that if the drought increases in future then there is a bigger chance that the crop yield will also reduce. It has also been inferred that the yield can be increased if the irrigated hectarage is increased in future from the ground water resources (Ray, Fares & Risch, 2018).
In 2018, The Texas A&M Agrilife conducted field trials called Randomized Agronomic Cotton Evaluation (RACE). This experiment is conducted every year and this field trials provide a comparison of the different varieties that are grown under different environmental conditions. It has been highlighted that no single variety can excel in all the environmental conditions, thus Rolling Palins is selected for the study. The month of June presents a very dry condition across the Rolling Plans and in this month majority of producers plants cotton. From the perspective of a producer, region specific trails are very important. Along with it the producers also consider that they must also consider the stability of the variety (cottongrower.com, 2018). The stable varieties are found to be performing well for several years and under different management practices which also includes the drought conditions. The dry conditions generally occur due to the extremely low rainfall from one year to another in the Texas High Plains. Thus, it is important to select a cotton variety that have a good early season vigour. It is also important to mention that the considering the dryland and the irrigated systems, the producers are interested in the different varieties that performs well under the varying dryland conditions (Moorhead et al., 2015). Certain varieties of cotton like Deltapine, NexGen, Stoneville, FiberMax are considered for different locations like irrigated and dryland. It has been seen that the persistent drought across the Northern High Plains has affected some of the dryland producers. On several fields cotton is found to be simply surviving but the tillage management it proved to be critical for the dryland cotton. Some dryland producers are found to be achieving good stands with limited amount of tillage. Even with the no till fields, crop rotation with the wheat residue or the grain sorghum the cotton varieties were able to take advantage of the little stored moisture in the soil. However, it is important to mention that the varieties cultivated with clean tillage burned up in the early part of the June. The planter even generally tries to replant when the crops fail, but the soil is not left with the ample amount of moisture for replantation (Allen et al., 2012).
Considering the effects of climate change on the various crops especially cotton, it is important to note that drought condition will rise in future and it will hamper the cotton yield. Thus, management practices or rather a holistic approach can be taken to reduce the impact of climate change on the yield of cotton. There are different ways of managing the impact of climate change and they are as follows:
Planting geometry affects both the yield and the growth of the dryland cotton- decreasing the spacing of the rows, leads to the increase in the population of the plants which even does not require more frequent spacing between the plants. When plant heights are measured for a row width of 0.76m diameter, it has showed a significant growth in comparison to the 0.05m and 0.25m row spacing. Studies have shown that the row width of 0.38m has a significant larger cotton plants which is 70 percent more than the plants that are grew within a row width of 0.76m. Studies have shown that an increased intra- row spacing has the capability to lower the competition between the cotton plants with respect to water availability ad it results into larger plants (Baumhardt et al., 2018).
Adapting to the climate change- the adapting to the climate change, the cotton cultivation needs to adapt certain aspects of cultivation in the dry and drought affected areas. unnecessary loss of nutrients from the farming systems must be stopped, soil erosion must be prevented and the burning of cotton crop residues must be abandoned; A cropland design must be favoured that will promote the plant diversity and at the same time will favour the management of soil fertility (Moorhead et al., 2017). This can be done by including the perennials and cover crops; in order to avoid the moisture stress, the sowing dates can be adjusted so as to prevent the outbreak of the pests. This will ensure the and will also make the best use of the growing season; minimizing the period where the land lays bare, this is done to slow down the soil erosion, soil humidity and the loss of organic matter from the soil; minimizing soil tillage so as to prevent the loss of organic matter which will act as a natural source of fertility of soil and a means of water storage for the purpose of plant uptake (Xue et al., 2017); breeding of the cotton varieties that are increased resistance towards the diseases, pests, weeds, drought spells, and heat stress; optimization of the sustainable usage of the natural fertilizer sources which will be helpful in the production of cotton, and it will include the composted manure, compost manure, nitrogen fixing crop rotations; optimizing the efficiency of the additional fertilizer and it is to be used only where applicable so as to reduce the carbon foot print and the costs. It is seen that usage of synthetic fertilizer is used highly in irrigation; optimizing the efficiency of water usage in the production of the irrigated cotton so as to minimize the carbon fuel footprint and cost of the irrigation water; optimizing the usage of the industrial preparations like defoliants, herbicides and pesticides to as to reduce the carbon fuel footprint and costs of the preparations (Uddameri et al., 2013).
Drought management strategies- the cotton grown in the dryland regions must stop the application of the regulators of plant growth that contain mepiquat pentaborate and mepiquat chloride in the fields that receive less amount of rainfall and is stressed. It is important to note that these products include gibberellic acid inhibitors that exert additional amount of stress on the crop and it will reduce the yields of the cotton and will increase the severity of the moisture stress conditions. Also, the usage of the other types of the production must be minimized; the cultivators must reduce the frequency of cultivation that can dry the soil and also increase issues related to drought (Hao et al., 2015). Cultivating too deeply will reduce the capability of the cotton plants to extract moisture from the soil. also cultivation during the reproductive months of the cotton plants must be avoided because the water usage is highest during the stages of growth; cotton has the capability of adapting to various types of the plant densities and under the favourable condition of growth. In an average 30 thousand to 60 thousand of cotton plants can be grown in an acre and it will produce similar yields. Considering the drought conditions (Steiner et al., 2015), lowering the density of the cotton plantations must be beneficial for a stable amount of yield; in some areas of Texas, the cotton producer must remove the stalks so that soil moisture can be retained. After the destruction of the stalks, furrow diking, sub soil chisel must be performed so as to achieve maximum moisture storage through the entire soil profile and after the subsequent occurrence of rainfall; crop producers must be encouraged to test the soil of percentage of fertilizer that is being carried over; the cultivators must refrain from the usage of the harvest aid chemicals that have low yield potential and is drought stressed. In certain fields only the desiccation treatment and defoliant treatments are required for the preparation of the crop harvest. The harvest aid decisions are based on type of field on which it is applied. However, the costs of the harvester can greatly be reduced by using a striper harvester instead of using a picker harvester to harvest the small size stalks that has lower yield potential (Ehmke, 2013).
Economic decisions- Whether to destroy or harvest a failed crop should only be done after doing a calculation of the potential returns and cost incurred in the whole process. realistically it is important to note that the harvesting a cotton crop depends largely on the revenue generated from the cottonseed and lint. If the cost of harvesting exceeds the stays below the cost of lint and cotton seed. However, if the cultivator is not agreeing with the amount provided by the insurance company then it is necessary to carry out the crop harvest so that the final cost of harvest can be determined. Also, if the cultivator wishes to abandon the crop and at the same time disagrees with the insurance amount provided then the cultivator can destroy the crop leaving only the representative strips on the field. However, if the insurance company agrees to pay the insurance amount then the cultivator can carry out the harvesting process on the basis of the field data determination (Johnson et al., 2013).
Marketing decisions- different types of pricing mechanisms exist for a crop that has not been harvested and crops that have not yet been planted. These include cooperative pools, minimum price contracts, forwards contracts, options, future contracts (Johnson et al., 2013).
For more than 6 decades the irrigation is the High plains is considered to be the most productive belts. The region has been transformed by water and it has turned this region into a food factory. The irrigation in the high plans region of Texas is sustained by Ogallala Aquifer but the major issue is that that the aquifer is tapped at a faster rate than the nature could probably replenish the same. The Ogallala aquifer has been the major source of irrigation since the year 1950 and the process of extracting groundwater accelerated when the technology of groundwater extraction became affordable. The extracted water became the source of irrigation for various crops including cotton in the Texas High Plains. The total number of wells in the region increased from 48000 to 101000 from 1958 to 2000 respectively. The number of wells has increased due to the increased number of the irrigated crops. It is important to note that the Ogallala aquifer is a fossil aquifer which has a very slow rate of recharge (Steward et al., 2013). The economy of the region is highly dependent on crop processing, livestock. Even though the rate of withdrawal exceeds the rate of recharge. In the recent years, the unsustainable extraction of water from the Ogallala aquifer has caught the attention of the federal agencies and the state governments. Majority of the states have passed laws that promotes the formation of the groundwater management districts which are controlled by the irrigators that are located locally. This is done to optimize the usage of water from the aquifer. if the water availability does not impact the water usage then permits for the new wells are not issued. The farmers are even asked to measure the ground water usage each year and they are also asked to provide the information to the authorities that are managing the aquifer (Chen et al., 2018).
The irrigated area has changed over time and so has the irrigation technology and the farm level choices. subsurface drip irrigation, low pressure sprinkler systems, center pivot sprinkler system replaced the gravity flow irrigation methods. Due to the lack of any administrative authority to control pumping in the Texas High Plains different agencies worked along with the irrigators so that they can encourage and bring improvements in the management of water and at the same time reduce the unsustainable withdrawal of the ground water. The increasing price of the natural gas along with the declining levels of groundwater motivated the farmers to manage the irrigation methods (Oecd.org, 2018). It is important to highlight that the cost of pumping groundwater from Ogallala aquifer has in general increased from US $0.08 per mm to an excess of US $0.20 mm in certain areas. Currently the estimated cost of an irrigation system is US $ 741 for one hectare and along with it the estimated cost of pumping water (from the depth of 61 meters) as well as operating the necessary systems is around US $ 772 for one hectare. The two major and scarce resources played a pivotal role in the making necessary adjustments in the water usage. studies have shown that in any given year if the prices of the natural gas have increased then it gradually led to the reduction of volume of water pumped for the purpose of irrigation in the region. The percentage of reduction is found to be 18 percent. Also, it has been noticed that there was reduction in the pumping of groundwater due to leaving land fallow (4 percent) and crop choices (2.3 percent). Another reason is the reduced application of the irrigated water (11 percent) (Oecd.org, 2018).
There are reports that suggest that the farmers rush in to plant cotton crops just after the heavy rains because the cut off dates for planting cotton is nearing. Although it is important that the farmer must wait first for the fields to become dry. The farmers are hurrying to plant cotton so that they can get their coverage on the cotton crops (Campiche, 2013). Even areas that are dry, in such areas farmers are planting cotton in the dirt so that they can receive the insurance coverage. If the farmers are prevented to plant crops in the wet weather, then they will not be able to plant the cotton crop and this will be termed as prevented planting (hpj.com., 2018). If a farmer plants during a prevented farming stage, then the farmer is entitled to recover only 40 percent of the loss or the total benefit. However, the percentage for a total failure of the cotton crop is even higher than the normal selling of the entire selling. The insurance coverage for the total failure is 100 percent and it is higher than the total benefit earned. Due to this each and every farmer wants to plant cotton. If the planted cotton fails out, the total amount that a farmer will receive will be even higher than the provisions of prevented planting (Luitel, Knight & Hudson, 2015). Thus, with the rain nearly each of the farmer will get a chance. While episodes of rain for only an inch will last for only about a week and the crop will also last for the same period of time before dying out. The farmers that think that the crop will not survive will skip the cost by not applying the fertilizers. The dates for the planting the cotton crops and federal crop insurance varies from one county to another and the crop insurance is highest in the High plains region of Texas. The insurance provision says that the plantation needs to be done between 5th June of 10th June. Although majority of farmers already sow the seeds in much of the acreage in anticipation regarding the cutoff dates of insurance (hpj.com., 2018).
There are provisions relating to the cotton crop insurance just after the winter crop (wheat) in the Texas high plains. The cultivators have the provision of plating cotton just after their wheat crop failed. The USDA Risk Management Agency has a zero tolerance towards the non-irrigated cotton and other crops that are cultivated after the non-irrigated wheat. The USDA Risk Management Agency does not provide any insurance for the cultivation of cotton just after the non-irrigated winter crop like wheat (Luitel, Hudson & Knight, 2018). With the deterioration of the cultivating conditions and the prevailing dry conditions that are persisting throughout the high plains. Majority of the winter crops in the region are doing poor and due to this reason the cultivators are thinking of switching to an alternative spring seeded crop like cotton (southwestfarmpress.com, 2018). The dryland cultivators are looking to plant and insure cotton so that they can contact their insurers immediately after the process of getting appraisal for the acreage. Failure of a non-irrigated crop like wheat also prevents the non-irrigated second crops from getting insurance benefits. Also it is important to mention that the USDA Risk Management Agency is unlikely to entertain the insurability of the non-irrigated crops like cotton behind another non-irrigated crop like wheat. Thus, after this rule the growers are left with the option of having the option of cultivating and insuring the crops on both the irrigated and the non-irrigated acreage following the cultivation of the winter wheat crop (southwestfarmpress.com, 2018).
Conclusion
From the above discussion it can be concluded that, the formation of Ogallala dates back to millions of years and is formed due to the erosion of the Rocky Mountains and the aquifer travels through the eight states namely Wyoming, Texas, South Dakota, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Nebraska, Kansas, Colorado and this aquifer provides 30 percent of water for the United States’ irrigation. When the droughts in the Texas panhandle region intensifies, the irrigation well faces issues from the lack of water recharge, which brings the agriculture in the high plains to point of crisis. Studies have indicated that the water levels in the Ogallala is dropping at an alarming rate and the aquifer will become dry after a period of 50 years. Considering the effects of climate change on the various crops especially cotton, it is important to note that drought condition will rise in future and it will hamper the cotton yield. Thus, management practices or rather a holistic approach can be taken to reduce the impact of climate change on the yield of cotton. For more than 6 decades the irrigation is the High plains is considered to be the most productive belts. The region has been transformed by water and it has turned this region into a food factory. The irrigation in the high plans region of Texas is sustained by Ogallala Aquifer but the major issue is that that the aquifer is tapped at a faster rate than the nature could probably replenish the same. The Ogallala aquifer has been the major source of irrigation since the year 1950 and the process of extracting groundwater accelerated when the technology of groundwater extraction became affordable. The extracted water became the source of irrigation for various crops including cotton in the Texas High Plains.
Reference
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