Describe about the Information Contemporary Technologies and Decision Making.
Inputs to decision making
The main inputs include data, information as well as knowledge. The raw data may be stored in a database such that it can be searched and accessed at any time. The data should be retrieved and updated at all time. Once the information has been processed and organized, then it’s now referred to as information (Orwel, 2008). The data and information can then be referred to as knowledge once it has been processed and can convey experience and expertise to an activity or to a problem that may arise.
Business Analysis and Mapping tools
The management of a business organization intends to start cyber café business. They are therefore faced with the problem of identifying the necessary inputs. They would then put the necessary inputs together and proceed on with the business. Thereafter, they would wait to reap from the outcome (Orwel, 2008).
The problem regarding poor information or knowledge, lack of information or knowledge transfer
The poor information and lack of knowledge arise from poor decision making. One must identify the objective of his/ her business before he/she can go ahead with the businesses plan. For example, some businesses are put up from profit-making purposes while some are started for non-profit making purposes (Malmendier, 2003). Some may also be started to create employment opportunities for the family members. Public cyber café require several computers which are connected to the internet. However, poor information or knowledge may be very misleading. There is a need for the business proprietor to be well informed about all that he/she requires to start and run the business effectively (Ehrlinger, 2005). There also the lack of information which may prove to be a major challenge. One must, therefore, acquire knowledge regarding the targeted consumers. Profits that are earned by the cyber café would be dictated by the number of customers.
There are several other problems that may arise due to lack of knowledge or information. For instance, the inputs must be put in place to run the business. If not, the business can’t be initiated (Trevis Certo, 2008). Such inputs include buildings, starting capital, acquisition of internet services among others. Some managers may lay out strategic measures that may prove out to be expensive for nothing and result in losses in the end. The business may not necessarily need an expensive building or huge capital investment. However, due to lack of information an individual may end up making poor decisions regarding the choice of inputs and the transformation processes (Gilovic, 2002).
3. Decision-making issues – uncertainty, biases, in personal and group decision-making Personal
I have been responsible for making the decision of who was to be appointed as the acting treasurer at my workplace. The treasure to the staff welfare had just been transferred to another place. There was hence an immediate need for someone to be appointed so as to replace her. The manager requested me to nominate an individual who would then be appointed by the company to serve in the capacity. It was hence upon me to identify the right individual who would serve as the acting treasurer. The task wasn’t an easy. I considered some factors and finally nominated a colleague who was eventually appointed by the manager.
I felt very uncomfortable during the entire period when I had to make the decision. Several thoughts crossed my mind, but I was well in control. There were many people from whom I could choose from. The many alternatives turned out to be a challenge to me. The treasure was to be in charge of all the finances of the welfare. The position, therefore, required an individual who is faithful, determined and committed to his/her work. The feeling that I had was that if my preferred choice eventually fails in the job, then I would be blamed for having nominated a wrong person. On the other hand, I had a feeling that people would question the factors that I would consider in the nomination. I, therefore, had to consider very many factors.
According to prospect theory, managers tend to avoid choices that are likely to lead to losses when there are several options (Trevis Cento, 2008). I was in the same scenario, and I had to nominate someone whom I believed had the capacity to deliver effectively in the capacity of a treasurer. I had to ignore any other person who could squander finances that belonged to the staff welfare. Several experiments have shown that people are very cautious when it comes to making decisions that can lead to losses (Malmendier, 2003). Decision makers tend to favor choices that promote gains as opposed to those that can lead to losses. Economists argue that individuals value the gains that they have already achieved more compared to those that they are yet to attain. To avoid such losses, bias may be exercised if it is the best decision (Trevis Cento, 2008). Prospect theory also states that decision makers are more likely to take a risk when the alternative choices available may result in losses. The theory hence contradicts loss aversion because it encourages the taking of risks that are likely to mitigate a loss (Chimizu, 2005).
4. Methodologies and tools for solving complex problems: soft systems, dialogue mapping, IBIS, satisficing
The Provision of free internet services at the place of work can greatly contribute to improvements at the place of work. I selected a group of seven friends whom we partnered with and worked on the issue (Shimizu, 2005). We decided upon the workshopping tools that we would use. There were several choices of tools at our disposal. We finally settled on brainstorming and cost-benefit analysis after considering all of them. We brainstormed to find out whether the decision that we intended to make was of high quality or not and whether it was important or not. We also analyzed the commitment of the team towards the decision and whether there was enough information regarding the same.
The group also looked at the possibility of the team supporting the decision if any other individual would have come up with it. Finally, we looked at the cost-benefit analysis to determine whether the decision was likely to be supported by the organization. The workshop was conducted for close to one hour. Finally, we concluded that the issue was important and needed to be implemented. The staff members at the workplace wasted a lot of time visiting cyber café, seeking internet services. Provision of free internet services at the working place would save the workers more time leading to work improvement.
Work improvement is one of the goals of the organization. It was, therefore, necessary to find ways of making it better and the provision of free internet services at the workplace would be a break through. The free and reliable internet services would also enable the organization’s workers to exchange ideas with other well-performing organizations. The organization would also be able to reach out to their customers and engage them via electronic emails and the social media. From the engagements that we had, I learned that issues should first be discussed by the members and agreed upon before they can be implemented.
5. Contemporary technology responses – Personal Decision Making
Overconfidence and how it influences decision-making
To make a right decision, an individual requires much more than concepts, facts, and knowledge. There is an additional requirement that that is commonly referred to as “metaknowledge.” It is the extent of one’s knowledge(Russo& Schoemaker, 2016). The two most important things that I have learned about overconfidence are the cognitive causes of availability of bias and the confirmation of bias. I have learned that the difficulty that people have in understanding and even imagining the manner in which an event can unfold is likely to result into overconfidence. Most people are excited and become overconfidence when they develop a belief in them that they can tell the manner in which an event is likely to turn out. Such people become very disappointed when the contrary happens. Confirmation bias also causes overconfidence in that one may go out to seek for views in support for his /her view of events and failing to seek for disconfirming evidence. The result is that the people become over-confidence (Schoemaker, 2016).
Reducing overconfidence on decision-making at workplace
I use some ways to reduce and overcome overconfidence at my place of work. The first method that I use is consideration of several values. This provides me with several choices. As a result, I cannot cling to one and assume that it is the correct way in which the events are likely to conform to. The second method that I use is the belief that I have developed so far. I believe that the events taking place in the world are very unpredictable. I don’t base my arguments on assumptions that events are likely to turn out in a given manner. It is important to observe patience and wait for the results of the events (Malmendier, 2003). I am very aware and alert in most cases because am the decision maker. I have to motivate the people whom I work with. However, when I get over-confidence about a given issues and then the opposite turns out, then my colleagues are likely to be demotivated. As a role model and an example to the rest I always avoid all the causes of overconfidence at all cost.
References
Basics of decision-making processes. Retrieved from https://essentialsofbusiness.ufexec.ufl.edu/resources/leadership/basics-of-the-decision-making-process/#.V97A8_lM8s8
Ehrlinger, J. G. (2005). People’s assessments of bias in themselves and others. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin,, 680-691.
Gilovic. (2002). The psychology of intuitive judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Improving decision making. Retrieved from https://www.bizmove.com/skills/m8a.htm
Malmendier, U. (2003). CEO overconfidence and corporate investment. Jornal of finance, 3-21.
Orwell, G. 2008.Inputs and decision making. Retrieved from https://net.educause.edu/ir/library/pdf/ers0805/rs/ers08054.pdf
Russo, J. E., & Schoemaker, P. J. (2016). Managing overconfidence. Sloan Management Review, 58.
Trevis, Certo L. T. (2008). Managers and their not-so rational decisions. Science Direct, 114.
Shimizu, K. &. (2005). The effects of organizational inertia. Jornal of Management, 55-60.
Tim Hartnett, 2016. Consensus Decision Making. Retrieved from https://consensusdecisionmaking.org/Articles/Basics%20of%20Consensus%20Decision%20Making.html
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