Macroeconomic Indicators: Real GDP, Inflation, Unemployment, Interest Rate And Net Export

Summary statistics of different Macroeconomic indicators

In the world economy, Australia stands as one of the strongest economy in terms of growth and economic performance. This is a service sector dominating economy with the sector making highest contribution to the GDP. Agriculture and industries also make significant contribution to the economy. Australia is an open economy maintaining trade relation with many of the developed and developing nation (Hatfield-Dodds, et al., 2015). Several natural disaster and global financial crisis though slowed down economic growth of Australia but the economy has made a quick recovery.

United State of America on the other hand is considered as the largest economy in the world. The nominal GDP of US as recorded at the end of 2018 is USD 20513 trillion.  USA is a world leading economy in terms of international trade and foreign investment. In term of purchasing power parity, USA stands first in the world (dfat.gov.au, 2018). The economy experienced a severe recession in 2008 resulted from sub-prime mortgage crisis, failure of investment banks and an economy wide liquidity crisis. It took a considerably long time for the economy to fully recover the crisis.

The report aims at evaluating macroeconomic performance of Australia and USA for the period ranging from 1995 to 2015.

Gross Domestic Product of a nation measures the monetary values of good and services that is nation produces in an accounting year. In computing GDP when market price of a fixed base year is used then it is called real GDP. Now growth in real GDP refers to the percentage change in real GDP from one year to the next (Issahaku, Abor and Amidu, 2018) The summary statistics for real GD growth in Australia and USA are described in the following tables.

Table 1: Real GDP growth in Australia

Real GDP growth rate
Mean	3.29
Standard Error	0.19
Median	3.63
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	0.89
Sample Variance	0.79
Kurtosis	-0.86
Skewness	-0.13
Range	3.19
Minimum	1.81
Maximum	5.01
Sum	69.15
Count	21

The average real GDP growth rate in Australia is obtained as 3.29 percent. The obtained standard deviation for the GDP growth is 0.89. As standard deviation of GDP, growth is relatively smaller than average growth rate, a relatively stable GDP growth for Australia can be predicted. The maximum and minimum GDP growth for Australia are 5.01 percent and 1.81 percent, recorded in the year 1999 and 2009 respectively.

Real GDP growth rate
Mean	2.46
Standard Error	0.38
Median	2.67
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	1.73
Sample Variance	3.00
Kurtosis	3.14
Skewness	-1.40
Range	7.46
Minimum	-2.78
Maximum	4.69
Sum	51.57
Count	21

The average real GDP growth rate in United State lower relative to that of Australia and is obtained as 2.46 percent. The obtained standard deviation for the GDP growth is 1.73. As standard deviation of growth is relatively smaller than average growth rate, like Australia, USA also experienced a stable growth. The maximum and minimum GDP growth for Australia are 4.69 percent and -2.78 percent, recorded in the year 1999 and 2009 respectively.

Inflation rate measures the rate of change in the general price level over time (Oikawa and Ueda, 2018) It is computed as a percentage change in the consumer price index between two years.

Table 3: Inflation rate in Australia

inflation rate
Mean	2.66
Standard Error	0.26
Median	2.61
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	1.18
Sample Variance	1.40
Kurtosis	-0.30
Skewness	0.00
Range	4.39
Minimum	0.25
Maximum	4.64
Sum	55.86
Count	21

For Australia, the average inflation rate is estimated as 2.66 percent.  The variability of inflation rate obtained from the standard deviation is computed as 1.18. This implies a relatively stable trend in the inflation rate. The highest rate of inflation in the given sample period is 4.64 and the lowest inflation rate is recorded as 0.25

Real GDP growth rate

inflation rate
Mean	2.27
Standard Error	0.23
Median	2.34
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	1.05
Sample Variance	1.11
Kurtosis	0.93
Skewness	-0.96
Range	4.19
Minimum	-0.36
Maximum	3.84
Sum	47.58
Count	21

In case of United State, the average inflation rate is estimated as 2.27percent.  The variability of inflation rate obtained from the standard deviation is computed as 1.05. The smaller standard deviation in the inflation trend implies inflation is more stable in United State than that in Australia. The highest rate of inflation in the given sample period is 3.84 and the lowest inflation rate is recorded as -0.36.

Unemployment rate of a nation measures the status of labor market. Unemployment occurs when people in the labor market are actively looking for jobs but are unable to find a suitable job for them (Kroft and Notowidigdo, 2016) 

Table 5: Unemployment rate in Australia

unemployment rate
Mean	6.10
Standard Error	0.28
Median	5.90
Mode	8.50
Standard Deviation	1.29
Sample Variance	1.67
Kurtosis	-0.38
Skewness	0.67
Range	4.30
Minimum	4.20
Maximum	8.50
Sum	128.10
Count	21

The average unemployment rate in Australia is documented as 6.10 percent. The highest unemployment rate in Australia is 8.50 percent while the lowest unemployment rate is recorded to be 4.20 percent. From the summary measures, standard deviation for unemployment series is obtained as the 1.29. The relatively smaller value of standard deviation implies that Australia maintained a relatively stable trend in unemployment.

Table 6: Unemployment rate in United State

unemployment rate
Mean	5.98
Standard Error	0.37
Median	5.50
Mode	5.80
Standard Deviation	1.69
Sample Variance	2.85
Kurtosis	0.06
Skewness	1.09
Range	5.60
Minimum	4.00
Maximum	9.60
Sum	125.50
Count	21

The average unemployment rate in United State is documented as 5.98 percent. The highest unemployment rate in United State is 9.60 percent while the lowest unemployment rate is recorded to be 4.00 percent. From the summary measures, standard deviation for unemployment series is obtained as the 1.69. The relatively smaller value of standard deviation implies that United State maintained a relatively stable trend in unemployment.

An important monetary policy tools for central government of a nation is the bank rate. In Australia, the bank rate is known as cash rate while in United State bank rate is termed as federal fund rate (Du, Tepper and Verdelhan, 2018

Table 7: Cash rate in Australia

Interest rate
Mean	4.74
Standard Error	0.31
Median	4.75
Mode	4.75
Standard Deviation	1.44
Sample Variance	2.07
Kurtosis	-0.27
Skewness	-0.20
Range	5.50
Minimum	2.00
Maximum	7.50
Sum	99.50
Count	21

The average cash rate in the Australia economy for the chosen period is 4.74 percent. The highest and lowest cash rate in Australia are 7.50 percent and 2.00 percent respectively.

Table 8: Fund rate in United State

Interest rate
Mean	2.27
Standard Error	0.23
Median	2.34
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	1.05
Sample Variance	1.11
Kurtosis	0.93
Skewness	-0.96
Range	4.19
Minimum	-0.36
Maximum	3.84
Sum	47.58
Count	21

The average fund rate in the USA is relatively lower as compared to Australia with average fund rate being 2.27 percent for the chosen period. The highest and lowest fund rate in United State are 3.84 percent and -0.36 percent respectively.

Net export measures trade balance of a nation. It is the difference between the volume of export and volume of import in a year (Araujo, Mion and Ornelas, 2016)

Table 9:  Rate of change in net export of Australia

Net export
Mean	-62.16
Standard Error	58.55
Median	-13.13
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	268.29
Sample Variance	71981.13
Kurtosis	18.73
Skewness	-4.20
Range	1401.06
Minimum	-1204.18
Maximum	196.88
Sum	-1305.37
Count	21

The average net export growth in Australia is negative. This implies on an average, Australia experienced a decline in the trade balance.

Table 10:  Rate of change in net export of United State

Net export
Mean	9.60
Standard Error	4.81
Median	6.47
Mode	#N/A
Standard Deviation	22.03
Sample Variance	485.37
Kurtosis	2.88
Skewness	1.10
Range	102.95
Minimum	-28.23
Maximum	74.72
Sum	201.55
Count	21

The average net export growth in United State is 9.60 percent. The positive average growth in net export implies the nation experienced a better trade position.

Exchange rate refers to the value of currency of one nation relative to other (Gabaix and Maggiori, 2015) The summary statistics of monthly exchange rate in Australia and USA are presented in the following table.

Inflation rate

Table 11: Exchange rate in Australia

Exchange rate
Mean	1.10
Standard Error	0.01
Median	1.13
Mode	1.14
Standard Deviation	0.13
Sample Variance	0.02
Kurtosis	0.85
Skewness	-1.05
Range	0.63
Minimum	0.70
Maximum	1.34
Sum	277.53
Count	252

The monthly average exchange rate between Australian dollar and US dollar is 1.10. This implies Australia need to give 1.10 to purchase one unit of US dollar. The highest and lowest exchange rate for the period are 1.34 and 0.70 respectively.

Table 12: Exchange rate in United State

USD/AUD
Mean	0.92
Standard Error	0.01
Median	0.89
Mode	0.87
Standard Deviation	0.13
Sample Variance	0.02
Kurtosis	3.23
Skewness	1.77
Range	0.68
Minimum	0.75
Maximum	1.43
Sum	232.72
Count	252

The average monthly exchange rate for US dollar against Australian dollar is 0.92. This implies USA on an average need to exchange 0.92 USD for one unit of AUD. The highest and lowest exchange rate for the period are 1.43 and 0.75 respectively.

Figure 1: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and Inflation rate in Australia

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 2: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and Inflation rate in United State

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 3: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and unemployment rate in Australia

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 4: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and unemployment rate in United State

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 5: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and exchange rate in Australia

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 6: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and exchange rate in United State

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Figure 7: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and real interest rate in Australia

(rba.gov.au, 2018)

Figure 8: Pairwise graph between Real GDP growth and real interest rate in United State

(Fred.stlouisfed.org, 2018)

Figure 9: Pairwise graph between exchange rate and growth of net export in Australia

(rba.gov.au, 2018)

Figure 10: Pairwise graph between exchange rate and growth of net export in United State

(Data.worldbank.org, 2018)

Government of a nation takes different policy measures to stimulate macroeconomic performance. Objective of macroeconomic policy measure is to maintain stability in the economic environment in order to foster a steady and sustainable growth in the economy (Cimadomo, 2016).

In Australia, the key macroeconomic policy includes fiscal policy, monetary policy and policy related to exchange rate.

Fiscal policy: Fiscal policy works through different composition of government expenditure and tax rate. Government can directly influence economic activity by altering current and capital expenditure. The indirect channels of influencing economic activity are government spending, taxes and transfer payment, investment and export. Under current scenario of Australian economy, fiscal policy is the only macroeconomic policy tool that government controls directly (Fenna, 2016) Government takes discretionary fiscal policy to stimulate economic growth. An example of discretionary fiscal policy is the stimulatory packages offered by the government during economic crisis. In times of economic slowdown, government receives a lower revenue because of a decline in tax revenue collected from income and corporate tax. On the expenditure side, government spending increase on unemployment benefit and for other social expenditures. Government uses automatic stabilizers that makes fiscal policy expansionary in times of economic downturn while fiscal policy is contractionary in times of upturn in the economic activity (Ryoo and Skott, 2107. The fiscal pressure arising from higher government expenditure however pose long-term challenge for the economy. By 2046-47, government expenditure in Australia is projected to exceed 3.5 percent of the GDP.

Unemployment rate

Monetary policy:  Reserve Bank of Australia guides the monetary policy in the economy. The policy decision is implemented by altering the prevailing cash rate in the economy. Monetary policy is used to achieve a targeted level of inflation. When inflation exceeds the targeted rate then government takes tight monetary policy in terms of reducing the cash rate (Aph.gov.au, 2018). If inflation is below the targeted rate, then expansionary monetary policy in terms of increasing cash rate. Using monetary policy RBA, targets to achieve a stability in currency maintain a full employment and attain economic prosperity and welfare of the economy. RBA now targets to maintain an inflation rate between 2% and 3%. This help Australian economy to achieve a higher economic growth along with stability in the price level.

Exchange rate policy: In addition to fiscal and monetary policy, Australian government uses exchange rate policy to maintain stability in domestic currency. Since 1983, Australian maintained a floating exchange rate. Under this policy, the market forces determine exchange rate.  Because of mining boom, there was an appreciation of Australian dollar. This helped to moderate the inflationary pressure ensuring price signals that were needed to facilitate resource flow to the mining sector. The appreciation of Australian dollar resulted from mining boom led to an increase in the purchasing power of Australian household enhancing economic growth.

In United State, the roles of government extend beyond its regulatory position in certain economic activity. In addition to regulatory roles, government also designs policy to manage overall economic activity, maintains a high employment level and stabilize prices. The two policy tools used for this purpose are fiscal policy and monetary policy. Since the great depression of 1930s, government aims to find a mix of monetary and fiscal policy fir achieving a steady growth along with stability in the price level.

Fiscal policy: The expansion of government in the economy since 1930s was accompanied by a sharp increase in government expenditure. Fiscal policy in USA was undergone several changes. Since late 1990s, policymakers in USA no longer followed the path of their predecessors to attain targeted economic goals. The focus of policymakers today is to strengthen the economic activity at the margin (Cashin, et al., 2018). In order to expand economic activity, expansionary fiscal policy was taken by reducing tax on capital gains. This increases the value of wealth people have in the form of property or stocks. This policy by increasing incentive for saving and investment brings economic growth for USA. In order to address the issue of unemployment government seeks to investment on education and training program that will develop skills and hence will make the economy more competitive in the global market.

Monetary policy: Since the late 20^th century, the reliance of macroeconomic policies gradually shifted from fiscal to monetary policy. The Federal Reserve in USA controls money supply in the economy either through open market operations or through discount rate or by specifying the reserve ratios (Bhutta and Keys, 2016) The increasing importance of monetary policy over the fiscal policy for attaining economic stability reflects economic and political realities of USA. The experience of US economy during 1970s, 1980s and 1990s reveal the problems faced by the government to manage inflation using fiscal policy. The political realities favor role of monetary policy in times of inflation

Interest rate

Australian being a globally integrated nation is highly affected by changing condition in the global economy. There is evidences of strong economic condition in global economy. GDO growth has increased for a major group of advanced economies with global growth rate reaches the highest since 2011. The improved economic outlook for the major trading partners strengthen the economic outlook for Australia. The strong global economic condition and recovery of domestic economic activity has kept Australian economic outlook positive (rba.gov.au, 2018). The investment made outside the mining and construction will bring opportunities for further economic growth. The household income is forecasted to increase along with increase in consumption. The significantly low cash rate will help to boost investment and economic growth. The booming export sector and expanding business community will help the economy to achieve a sustained economic growth. Despite strong economic growth since the past few years, there is a growing threat arising from high household debt, rise in interest rate and slow growth in wages (abc.net.au, 2018).

Conclusion 

The report compares macroeconomic performance of Australia and USA for a chosen sample period (1995-2015). The average economic growth in Australia exceeds that of USA. This indicates resilience of Australian economy. Rate of inflation in Australia and USA are close to each other with both remain around 2 to 3 percent. The average unemployment in USA are lower than that of Australia. So far as monetary policy is concerned, it is more expansionary in USA. The fund rate in USA is relatively lower compared to the cash rate of Australia. Comparison of trade balance reveals that Australia experienced a trade deficit since 2007. The trade deficit in USA is relatively larger than that for Australia.

For both the nations, active macroeconomic policies play a crucial role in ensuring a steady economic performance. In Australia, government adapt fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy to secure a stable economic growth, higher employment and stable price level. The government of USA adapt fiscal and monetary policy tools to control overall economic activity. The strong global and domestic economic condition ensures a positive outlook for the economy.

References 

abc.net.au, 2018. As Economy Reaches Zenith, Leading Economist Warns Next Recession Already In View. [online] ABC News. Available at: <https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-06-07/next-recession-already-in-view-says-economist/9842596> [Accessed 18 January 2019].

Aph.gov.au, 2018. The Tools Of Macroeconomic Policy—A Short Primer – Parliament Of Australia. [online] Aph.gov.au. Available at: <https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook44p/MacroeconomicPolicy> [Accessed 18 January 2019].

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