a) A meaningful future decision I am going to have to face in my career
In our day to day life, we are faced with so many decisions that have a varying range of consequences on our lives and other stakeholders. Relocation is one of the future decisions that I may have to face in my career. In this competitive business, world relocation may come in terms of a transfer to another city or town or it can be moving to a completely different organization. Relocation also can be as a result of social factors such as marriage where I will have to settle down in a different place to raise a family. The decision may have consequences that I may regret later in life and in order to avoid this, I have to perform a post-mortem to determine the possible worse situations that the decision can put me into.
b) A pre-mortem on the decision
A pre-mortem on the decision will help me realize the scenarios that could lead to the failure of my decision. The decision-making process involves making choices from a wide range of possible alternative. The aim of decision making is to select the best alternative from the list, however, sometimes the decision fails terribly, (Van der Aalst, 2010, June). So what could be the worst thing relocation could cause to my career? What if I relocate in anticipation of an employment in another organization and I don’t get a chance in the organization? This could happen and I would regret the decision. I may also find out that the new town or city I have moved to is not good as per my preference compared to my original town. Since relocation involves a lot of logistics and a lot of funds involved in the process, I will be forced to stay in town or city I don’t really like. These are the possible pitfalls that the decisions can put me into and this pre-mortem will help me realize these worst scenarios of my relocation decision.
c) Relating the four potential pitfalls identified in Think Again chapters five (5) through eight (8)
According to the authors of Think Again, there are four pitfalls that one should look for before making a decision. These factors are referred to as “red flag conditions” which offer someone valuable information on what to consider in order to avoid making a bad decision. These four potential pitfalls in decision making are inappropriate attachments, inappropriate self-interest, misleading experiences and misleading prejudgments. Chapter 5 all through to chapter eight 8 explains each of these four pitfalls and how watching out for them prevents someone from making bad decisions.
Misleading prejudgments refers t situations the current decision-making process is influenced by previous judgments or decisions, (Trevino and Youngblood, 1990). So like for my case, I should not decide to relocate since earlier in my life I had decided to relocate and it all turned out well. Every situation is quite different and there are several factors that come into play. Therefore, I should be very careful not to use any previous decision to make my current decision since this will likely lead to a bad decision.
Misleading experiences refers to memories that seem similar to the current situation, but in reality are not. This is a major pitfall that contributes to so many bad decisions. For instance, the author of Thing Again says “in the 1980s and 1990s, Sir Clive Thompson was chief executive of one of the most successful companies in Europe. In the 1980s and 1990s, Sir Clive Thompson was chief executive of one of the most successful companies in Europe. Then, under pressure to continue the company’s growth trajectory, he started looking for larger deals. Add-on acquisitions simply could not deliver the 20% increases of the previous year.”( Finkelstein, Whitehead and Campbell, 2009). The past experience of making a profit each and every year misled Sir Thompson to abandon a successful strategy and change into another. This proved to be a bad decision that failed and the board forced him to resign. Therefore, I can learn from this situation and when I will be faced with the decision to relocate in future I should look out for the signs of misleading experience to avoid making a bad decision.
Inappropriate self-interests or personal interests that conflict with the responsibilities leaders have for other stakeholders is also a potential pitfall that can lead to a bad decision. For instance, the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) cannot award extra bonuses even when the economic situation of the company is good. Therefore, while I am making this decision to relocate I should not only consider my selfish personal interest but also consider the interests of all those who will be affected by the decision in one way or another.
The fourth potential pitfall for bad decision-making is inappropriate attachments. This involves all the strong feelings one may have towards people, ideas, possession or a place, (Kahneman, Lovallo, and Sibony, 2011). For instance, in my situation where I am faced with the decision of relocating I should not have strong feelings towards the new town or even with the old one. This would easily make me make a bad decision and will have to bear the negative consequences.
d) Does pre-mortem help prevent bad decision?
Pre-mortem helps would help me realize my decision will fail and this will obviously make me reconsider my decision. Reconsidering the decision appropriately will help me realize all the possible worse scenarios that the decision could bring. This will make me restructure the decision appropriately and prevent me from suffering the risks associated with bad decision-making, (Schwalbe, 2004). From the analysis above it is clearly evident that pre-mortem is very important in the decision-making process.
e) From doing this assignment I was able to learn a lot about pre-mortem and the potential pitfalls that could lead to bad decision-making. The assignment has also enabled me to relate the theoretical concepts I learnt in class and how they come handy in my future career.
References
Kahneman, D., Lovallo, D., & Sibony, O. (2011). Before you make that big decision. Harvard business review, 89(6), 50-60.
Schwalbe, C. (2004). Re-visioning risk assessment for human service decision making. Children and Youth Services Review, 26(6), 561-576.
Finkelstein, S., Whitehead, J., & Campbell, A. (2009). Think Again: Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions and How to Keep it From Happeining to You. Harvard Business Press.
Trevino, L. K., & Youngblood, S. A. (1990). Bad apples in bad barrels: A causal analysis of ethical decision-making behavior. Journal of Applied psychology, 75(4), 378.
Van der Aalst, W. M. (2010, June). Business process simulation revisited. In Workshop on Enterprise and Organizational Modeling and Simulation (pp. 1-14). Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg.
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