In this document we look at the past, current data and future projections on the energy sector. Energy is a major driver of economic growth, technological development, and poverty alleviation to ensure that everyone has access to information on the ongoing and the challenges in the global development.
The world energy outlook in 2017 is driven by shifts that have set the scene for demand, supply and even future predictions on the usage and production of energy. But there are four major shifts that have driven the energy sector.
These shifts include clean energy technologies which are of lower costs and are rapidly deployed, rapid electrification of energy, the growth of a more service-oriented economy and cleaner energy mix mostly in China. These shifts occur at a time when the major developing countries are led by India take the center of the stage and there are no clear distinctions between energy producers and energy consumers.
The rising demand for energy use is the greatest key factor for energy projection. The global energy predictions from the past were high but currently, these projections have not been achieved. The economic growth rate is at 3.4% annually and this is expected to increase since the population is at 7.6 billion and it is expected to grow to 9 billion by 2040. This will lead to the growth of urban centers and economic growth thus greater demand for more cheaply and quality energy, for example, India contributed 30% of energy demand growth, Asia, Middle East, Africa and Latin America are also on the rise (Sorrell, 2015).
The difference between historical projections and the current data on demand for energy is caused by factors that affect the growth rate of the global population example internal wars this hinder urbanization, diseases, and high death rates also affect the population growth.
Renewable energy is expected to be on a higher demand in the future as compared to now. This is due to fact that they are of low carbon and also in order to meet the needs for more energy. By 2040 the renewable energy power generation will be at 40% currently these renewable energies have not been fully embraced globally hence their production rate is currently low. Globally the investments in renewable energy are 2/3 of the global investments on energy. Natural gas is taking the lead currently. Natural gas is expected to have grown by 40% in 2040.
In countries such as Brazil, the use of direct and indirect renewable energy in final energy consumption rises from 39% currently to 45% in the year 2040 but the global rise is from 9% to 16% from the year 2016 to 2040. Generally, the renewables are expected to increase in consumption by 60% (Liu, 2014).
The difference in the historical projections and in current data on renewable energy is due to the policies set that have supported and led to industries, companies and households embrace this form of energy thus future projections are high and also fact that it is clean energy currently the data is low since it is at its genesis.
Some of these renewables include Coal energy has continuously had a decline in its demand consumption over the years and is now at 900 gig watts since its use in the 1900s but the future projections predict that it could increase in its demands and the usage is almost at 2300 gig watts by 2040 but these factories are currently under construction (Senapati, 2015). In India, the coal energy will have dropped from ¾ in 2016 to ½ in 2040. Coal is predicted to decline over the period of time by 15% by the year 2040.
The major cause for this difference is due to the fact that there is a lack of large-scale carbon capture to produce and low storage hence continuously continued to drop leading to low usage. Nuclear power generation is part of the electricity mix and provides about 11% of the world’s electricity in 2016.
Nuclear energy is not embraced by most countries and has decreased since the last year’s outlook but currently, China has higher outlook growth than the United States and it is expected to rise by 2030 to become largest producers of the nuclear-based energy. (Kok, 2017). Nuclear power is expected to increase by 14% and the contribution from the capture of carbon equally plays a significant role in reducing the emissions produced by the industries.
Electricity has also increased by 40% over the years and it is projected that it will continue to rise due to the fact that investment in electricity production to ensure electrical security and surplus to minimize carbon dioxide and air pollutant emissions. This has been the major focus and for the first time ever in 2016 electricity investment has overtaken oil and gas (Karatasou, 2018)
The cause for the increase in the use of energy in future projections than in the past is due to its use especially in households add more electrical appliances where the invention of better gadgets continues to come up and the installation of cooling systems. The number of people without access to electricity has greatly fallen across the globe since 2000 but expected to rise more when even those in the rural areas gain access this is due to the widespread of appliances and decentralized renewable sources of energy for example wind, solar.
Electrical cars are on the high merge of inventions and are becoming on the rise at high speed and are approximately 600 million cars produced. Hence the growth in the production of electricity is projected to be high in the future.
Oil demand is expected to grow because of the world’s strong economy annually at a rate of 1.2 mb/d by 2023 the demand will be at 104.7mb/d a rise from the current 6.9 mb/d. china and India shall contribute 50% of the global growth (Cashin, 2014). But changes are likely to occur as China becomes more of a consumer-oriented economy the demand for fuel goes down since China sets the pace for energy consumption then everything changes thus the global demand goes down.
The projected 2040 emission of carbon gasses in the new policies scenarios is expected to fall by 600 million tones than in the previous year’s outlook and 9.2Giga tone’s by the year 2030 are expected to be plague before they start falling back the cause for this difference is brought about by the emergence of electric buses, trains and cars hence low consumption of oil. The need for less pollutant energy being embraced more hence there is going to be lesser demand for oil due to fact that it produces carbon gasses that are pollutants (Crawford, 2015).
Natural gas is set to account for a quarter of the global demand for energy, the new policies scenarios by 2040 will favorites consumption hence making it the second largest fuel after oil. The production of this gas is likely to be high in rich resource countries like Middle East Brown (Brown, 2014) the consumption of natural gas is going to rise to 20% by 2040. Methane licks across the oil lines which are lost between 40 % to 50% annually into the atmosphere this is 76 million tonnes. The Measures put in place help to reduce temperature rise in the global surface by 2100.
Although natural gas is threatened by the renewable energy it’s advantaged due to the fact that the renewable energy is currently not available in some industrial sectors example in coal-reliant countries such as China and India, natural gas has an added advantage over the renewable gas thus the difference in past current and future projections. Efficiency policies tend to regulate and constrain the gas use since most countries that would prefer to use gas to coal because it is easy to produce. Whereas electricity generated from gas is expected to grow by half in the year 2040.
Conclusion
To conclude with energy is almost a part of the basic necessity for economic growth and technological development. Energy projections are high and almost all forms of energy, although some tend to make others drop on usage there are policies that take care of this problem to ensure these energies do not run out of use.
China and India are currently the largest producers of energy and the consumers. As China enters a new phase in its development and the call to fight against pollution and transition towards a service-oriented economy model is taking a new direction in the energy sector. The policies set have promoted the growth of renewables, coal, natural gas and electricity. There is a higher percentage of cleaner and better energy in the future.
When there is sustainable development environment it provides a place for the achievement of energy developmental goals that favors economic development in that there is a good climate stabilization, cleaner air and universal access to a better and a modern energy. Access to modern energy leads to the reduction of energy security risk.
References
Sorrell, S., 2015. Reducing energy demand: A review of issues, challenges, and approaches. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 47, pp.74-82.
Liu, H., Polenske, K.R., Guilhoto, J.J.M., and Xi, Y., 2014. Direct and indirect energy use in China and the United States. Energy, 71, pp.414-420.
Senapati, P.K., Mishra, B.K., Barik, R.R. and Mohanty, D.P., 2015. Evaluating the head loss of coal ash slurry pipelines at high solids concentrations using rheological data for mine backfilling. Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, and Environmental Effects, 37(14), pp.1542-1549.
Kok, B. and Benli, H., 2017. Energy diversity and nuclear energy for sustainable development in Turkey. Renewable Energy, 111, pp.870-877.
Karatasou, S., Laskari, M. and Santamouris, M., 2018. Determinants of high electricity use and high energy consumption for space and water heating in European social housing: Socio-demographic and building characteristics. Energy and Buildings, 170, pp.107-114.
Cashin, P., Mohaddes, K., Raissi, M. and Raissi, M., 2014. The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy. Energy Economics, 44, pp.113-134.
Crawford, J.T., Dornblaser, M.M., Stanley, E.H., Clow, D.W. and Striegl, R.G., 2015. Source limitation of carbon gas emissions in high?elevation mountain streams and lakes. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 120(5), pp.952-964.
Brown, J.P., 2014. Production of natural gas from shale in local economies: a resource blessing or curse? Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, p.5.
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