Discuss About The Probability Estimation Theory Respondent?
Tata motors finally availed its new vehicle brand called zest sedan in February 2014. This brand of vehicle comes with unique and attractive features especially for the millennial whose attraction of vehicles is often in comfort and luxurious looks. The vehicle was manufactured in India and the company did this unveiling with the aim of covering up its lost ground in the car market (Tata Motors, 2014).
Tata motors have to invest heavily in market selection for its new brand of car so as to remain relevant and topmost in this business. This starts off with ensuring it exploits different markets for its new brand (Lavallec´e, 2007). There are many vehicle markets available in the globe but the kind of market one chooses to sell its products contributes a lot to business success. It’s in 2015 that the number of cars on the roads passed the one billion mark globally. This indicates that more vehicles are being manufactured and released to the market and thus competition is also high. The emerging markets are also growing at a high rate and for instance Russia (which sounds like a potential market for Tata Motors to venture into) has an increase of 27% sales in the year 2016.
Such growth rates from countries like Russia have made changes in the normal standings among the world’s biggest 10 auto markets (Johnstone and Sabin, 2010). There is the need therefore for auto majors like Tata motors to try and capitalize on the increasing shift by opening new branches in upcoming markets. This rise in the new car nations has reshaped the automotive industry as well as their brands. This has seen the company selling its vehicles to countries like Brazil. Among the top most leading markets for vehicle business is China being the leading country, followed by United States, European Union, Japan, India, Brazil and Russia (Steiner, Thomas and William, 2011). This however does not imply that Tata Motors should lay focus on selling its new zest sedan to China as the world’s leading vehicle market. It’s advisable that the company ventures into new and upcoming markets which seem to be taking the market by storm. This will make it sell more compared to the already crowded markets like China.
Among the top 10 markets I would recommend that Tata motors targets Russia market for its Zest Sedan. This is because statistically the country has recorded tremendous growth in vehicle sales in the past year compared to the other nine markets.
For any company in business to realize the impact of its new product in the market it’s advisable to carry out research so as to get people’s opinion on how they perceive the new vehicle. Tata motors cannot get opinion of all the potential buyers but at least a sample population can be used to represent the opinions of a vast majority. It’s in this regard that a study population needs to be engaged (Yin, 2009). The target population is composed of an entire group of people to which the researcher aims at generalizing the study findings. Out of the target population the researcher is supposed to narrow down to the accessible population which in this case is the population that the researcher has an access to and it’s usually a subset of the target population. For the case of Tata motors the target population is actually people who use vehicles and especially personal cars or rather those who seem to be economically able to own an automotive. These are people with vast experience and knowledge on different brands of vehicles in the market and therefore will be able to provide good and measurable opinions on the new zest sedan (Johnstone and Sabin, 2010). However the company cannot access all the target population across the automotive markets globally. It therefore has to work with accessible population which should be a subset of the target population. In this case the company may choose to sample out respondents from three among the top markets in the automotive business field.
Recommendation- I would recommend that Tata motors samples out a target population from china which is the world’s leading automotive market, then Japan which is among the medium markets and finally Russia which is last on the list and has a promising market for growth in this business. Out of the target populations in these three markets Tata motors can then narrow down to accessible population and carry out research pertaining the customers’ views on this new brand. The population selected shouldn’t be biased in any way but again they should choose a population that is relevant to their research. It does not make any sense to select a population that does not have any knowledge or past experience on automotive brands and are less interested in matters to do with automotives (Lee and Richard, 2009). This will render their research ineffective and therefore the research objectives will not be met as it is in their interest.
Before the company carries out research on its new brand of vehicle that it unveiled (zest sedan) there is the need to determine a sampling frame. A sampling frame is the list of people among the selected population that intents to be used for the study. Tata motors are then required to know the exact number of people from the accessible population who can engage in the study. The sampling frame ensures accuracy in data collection. Without a sampling frame then the company will be dealing with a non-probability sample due to lack of similarity in the probability of people being sampled out for the study (Krista and Mark, 2010). The sample frame can be gotten manually by getting people who are in possession of automotives and have a good knowledge in vehicle brands such as zest sedan. Alternatively the sampling frame can be gotten from vehicle dealers across the three (china, Japan and Russian) markets.
These vehicle dealers are in a position to provide names of their customers who are willing to be sampled for the research (Draucker, et al., 2007). This will provide the company with the right people to be interviewed regarding their opinion on the new model. The difference between a population and a sample frame is that the population will be a representative of all those people with good knowledge of vehicles or in possession of vehicles regardless of the make. But for the sample frame, it narrows down to people who are in possession of personal vehicles only and are able to differentiate features of these various modes of personal vehicles. In this study the company can choose to either use an area frame or a list frame for its studies (Couper, 2008). An area frame will include the geographical units of the study markets arranged in hierarchical manner and they could be arranged in provinces, wards etc. the list sampling frame on the other hand is simpler and more focused with a list of the target population only.
Recommendation- for the study that is to be carried out by Tata motors I would recommend the use of list frames because this type of sampling frame narrows down to the target population and not just the entire markets i.e. the sampling frame for each study will be made from the three markets (china, Japan and Russia) with a list of target population in which random sampling of the people to be involved in the study will be generated (Volz and Douglas, 2008).
It’s normal and expected scientifically that before a research on any matter is done that requires the opinion of people there is the need to identify a sample size that can be engaged in the study. This sample size has to be calculated depending on the selected population but when it comes to choosing the individuals for the study it has to be done randomly to avoid any biasness and to reduce on the error margins in the data analysis that may interfere with result interpretation. The methods for sampling when carrying out research are quite many depending on the type of research (Silverman, 2010). The most ideal method that fits almost all the research is the simple random sampling method. However with the lack of time and sufficient money to access the entire population for intended research a lot of comprises are often made.
The best groups of methods to be used for sampling approach by Tata motors are the probability methods which may include simple random sampling, stratified sampling, systematic sampling and cluster sampling methods (Querstret and Robinson, 2013). Quota methods can also be used for specific analysis and need for valid results where the number of people that need to be sampled can be determined. These include quota sampling, proportionate quota sampling and non-proportionate quota sampling methods. There is also the use of selective methods in which the nature of study directs one to target a certain group of participants and such methods include expert sampling, purposive, snowballing, diversity and modal instance sampling methods (Lavallec´e, 2007). In some cases not all the researchers have money and enough time to use accurate data collection methods and therefore they opt for convenience methods like judgment, convenience and snowballing methods. Ethnographic methods can also be used for sampling approach especially in cases where people do not want their lives to be intruded into and therefore the researcher opts to use those available and willing to be engaged. Such methods include theoretical, convenience, selective and judgment sampling techniques.
Recommendation-Tata motors being one of the leading automotive companies in the world that deals in some top notch vehicles there is need for it to engage in serious research work and in a study whose results will be an approximate representation of the surveyed group opinions on the new brand in the market. It’s therefore advisable that the company uses any of the probability methods described above (Krista, 2008). This is because these methods use most of the powerful statistical analysis methods and give close to accurate results. In this case cluster sampling could be the most accurate method to use since the target is a wide group of representatives from the markets across the globe.
For the target market, in my view I proposed Russia because this is a country that has recorded tremendous growth in the automotive business in the past season (Abrams, 2010). This implies that the company is likely to get more buyers of its new brand zest sedan. It’s an indication that more people in Russia are into buying vehicles and thus a good market to venture into.
The company can settle on working with the target population for study which is almost impossible to get the opinion of all those with knowledge on automotives. This explains why I recommended the use of accessible population gotten out of the accessible population. For the sampling frame I recommended the use of a list frame instead of an area frame because the list frame is more specific and it deals with the accessible population only and not an entire geographical region (Collins, Onwuegbuzie and Jiao, 2006). This will save the company on tedious unnecessary samples. When it comes to the sampling approach there are various reasons that determine the choice of how the company wants to carry out its sampling activities. Most of the discussed methods can actually be adopted by the company. However considering the position of this company which is among the best in automotive business there is need to carry out accurate research work that will give close to the right opinions of the users of their new brand of car that they launched (AAPOR, 2008). This explains why I recommended the use of probability methods which have in many studies given close to accurate results that are in most cases will be a true reflection of the study population’s ideas on the new brand of vehicle that was launched.
Conclusion
With the current trends in business globally where automotive business is gaining more investors, it’s important for Tata motors to carry out research study on the perception of its new brand of vehicle by its potential customers. This study is meant to provide an insight into the business success and as to whether the zest sedan vehicle has been accepted by those in the market and if there are any shortcomings how can they be dealt with. Therefore if the recommendations are taken into account the study is most likely to be a success.
References
AAPOR, Cell Phone Task Force , 2008, American Association for Public Opinion Research, Viewed 23rd September 2017 from https://www.aapor.org/uploads/Final_AAPOR_Cell_Phone_TF_report_041208.pdf
Abrams, L.S., 2010, ‘Sampling ‘Hard to Reach’ Populations in Qualitative Research: The Case of
Incarcerated Youth.’ Qualitative Social Work, 9, 536-550.
Couper M, 2008, ‘Designing Effective Web Surveys’ , New York Cambridge University Press
Collins, K. M. T., Onwuegbuzie, A. J., & Jiao, Q. G., 2006, ‘ Prevalence of mixed methods sampling designs in social science research and beyond’. Paper presented at the meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco.
Draucker, C.B., Martsolf, D.S., Ross, R., & Rusk, T.B.,2007, ‘Theoretical sampling and category development in Grounded Theory’ Qualitative Health Research, 17, 1137-1148.
Johnstone, L.G., & Sabin, K., 2010, ‘Sampling hard-to-reach populations with respondent driven
Sampling’, Methodological Innovations Online, 5, 38-48.
Krista J. G., 2008, ‘Inference from Partially-Observed Network Data’ PhD in Statistics, University of Washington.
Krita J. G, and Mark S. H., 2010, ‘Respondent-driven sampling: An assessment of current methodology’, Sociological Methodology, 40:285–327
Lavallec´e, P., 2007, ‘Indirect Sampling’ New York: Springer.
Lee, S, and Richard V., 2009,‘Estimation for Volunteer Panel Web Surveys Using Propensity Score Adjustment and Calibration Adjustment’ Sociological Methods & Research 37:319–43.
Querstret, D. & Robinson, O.C., 2013, ‘Person, persona and personality modification: An
in-depth qualitative exploration of quantitative findings’, Qualitative Research in Psychology. 10, 140-159. 10.1080/14780887.2011.586450
Silverman, D., 2010, ‘Doing qualitative research’, 3rd Edition. London: Sage.
Steiner, P, Thomas C, and William S., 2011, ‘On the Importance of Reliable Covariate
Measurement in Selection Bias Adjustments Using Propensity Scores’, Journal of Educational
and Behavioral Statistics 36:213–36.
Tata Motors, 2014, ‘Tata Motors unveils the All-New ZEST and the BOLT’ Viewed on 20th September 2017 from https://www.tatamotors.com/press/tata-motors-unveils-the-all-new-zest-and-the-bolt/
Volz, E, and Douglas H., 2008, ‘Probability-Based Estimation Theory for Respondent-
Driven Sampling’ Journal of Official Statistics 24:79–97.
Yin, R.K., 2009, ‘Case study research: Design and methods’ (4th Edition). London: Sage Publications
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