The scenario planning may involve aspects of the different system thinking which specially recognize several factors such as aligning the interest of the stakeholders with the Organizaiton development, mitigating the negative impact of the business Organizaiton on the society and strengthen the corporate social responsibilities program with a view to pay back to society what it has taken while operating the business in economy.
Strategic thinking or scenario planning is based on the past set of information so that mangers or business decision maker could easily identify the requirement of business changes on the basis of changing business environment. It assists in anticipating the changes and assists in understanding the future problems and issues which might be faced by organization in the economic. It is process which assists in determining flexible long term business plans which could assists organization to establish the linkage between the organization’s goals and objective with the stakeholder development.
As stated by Mota, et al. (2015) it is reflected that Scenario planning emphasizes upon the recognition that several factors may combine into the complex business condition which may be surprising for managers to manage in long run. It is analyzed that if company could uses proper strategies and undertaken business program then it would not only allow mangers to align the interest of the organization development with the society but also result to developing the society safety program in long run. Managers are the key person who takes long term strategic planning to strengthen the business output. It is analyzed that if managers could identify the future issues and problems at spot then they could prepare company to face these possible changes and problem in effective manner. As stated by Arkema, et al. (2015) it is reflected that Scenario planning will allow in collecting the past records and information and where company failed in the particular situation. In addition to this, Scenario planning would also allow managers to use their divergent thinking and analytical work approach to spot the issues and reduce the chances of the negative drastic case happening in society. This type of Scenario planning will result to several benefits such as saving the scarcity resources in environment, reducing the negative impact of the organization on the society and environment. It is analyzed that while directors and business owners seek precision and practically as the basis for its planning efforts, sustainable development while on the other hand, Scenario planning is concept that is not amendable and finds the ways which could assist managers to determine the ways and solution for the future issues and problems on the basis of past trend data.
As per the views of Arkema, et al. (2015) it is reflected that The Scenario planning help managers to determine the variable business factors which will impact the future environment within which organization operates its business. This provide the exact small information which will allow managers to develop the strategic planning to expand the business and also lower down the negative impact of its business on the society and environment at large. The main advantage of the Scenario planning is based on the creation of the competitive advantage in market. Company could easily create cost leadership program if it has adopted Scenario planning in effective manner. As stated by Patassini, (2017). It is divulged that this will allow organization to lower down the complexity of the business and increasing the overall output. If managers could use Scenario planning in effective way then it will allow them to avoid the possible issues and drastic loss cases.
However, managers of the organization needs to follow the set steps in Scenario planning if it wants to mitigate the negative impact of the business on the society and environment. As per the views of Chapin, & Knapp, (2015) it is depicted that the business activities not only affect the natural environment but social environment as well. The risk of hindrance of the undertaken activities of the organization provides that society and environment both have to face high risk such as mishandling of the hazardous substance in society, exploitation of the natural resources and mixing the culture of the society with the globalized world. Nonetheless, the use of Scenario planning by the mangers could be analyzed by using the real life example of the one organization. In case of the BHP Billiton Company, managers had to take decision for expanding the business in Brazil. It allowed organization to expand its business in long run and tap the new market. However, due to the lack of strategic scenario planning of managers, organization had to face high destruction in its business process and resulted to the oil spill case. This case was the biggest explosion of the history and resulted to high loss to society. The oil spill case of the BHP Billiton had to face high loss in its business and also negatively impacted the future growth of the organization. It was analyzed that if managers could use the Scenario planning at the earliest stage then it would resulted to development of the supporting eco system and safer business plan to mitigate the chance of the oil spill in Brazil. This case was the biggest supporting example of using Scenario planning by managers which could be used to support the environment and society at large. As stated by Cortinovis, & Geneletti, (2018) it is reflected that scenario planning starts with the setting the objectives a goals of the undertaken business idea. After that required imperative variables are collected on the basis of past year information which would help managers to determine whether the undertaken business idea would be having positive and negative impact on the business of organization. Afterward, future problems and negative impact of the business would be analyzed by the managers to determine the issues at the spot to strengthen the overall business outcomes in efficient manner. It will assist in increasing the overall output in the business process and also mitigate the possible problems which might arise at the time of implementation of the developed Scenario planning. As per the view of Watkiss, et al (2015) it is depicted that it is further considered that in Scenario planning, management give ranking to problems which would be faced by Organizaiton on basis of its negative impact on the society and environment at large. After setting up the ranking for the different parts and factors, it will provide a possible set program for resolving these issues in effective manner. It is analyzed that Scenario will be written up in most suitable manner which will assist in divulging the possible set programs. As per the views of Millar, et al.. (2018) it is reflected that this will allow organization to mitigate these issues in best effective manner and develop managers’ mindset proactively to confront with the environment and social issues. However, in order to gain social license and strengthen the social benefits, managers needs to understand the business process firstly so that it could make its business more supportable for the economic growth. The active approach in case of BHP Billiton Company which was taken by the mangers was related to the corporate social responsibilities and corporate sustainable business practice. As per the Scenario planning, managers installed the eco supporting system and employee supporting program in Australia to mitigate the cases and issues related to the oil spill. However, initially, it increased the overall cost of capital of Organizaiton but in long term, it resulted to easy management of the social and environment issues in long run. It is further analyzed that managers had to take wide range of activities such as undertaking employee oriented organization culture, supporting eco support system and social responsibilities towards the society. The mangers of the BHP Billiton support a variety of projects in community to improve the stakeholder’s health, reinforcing the importance of safety and protect the environment at large. As stated by Bennett et al. (2016) it is reflected that this Scenario planning undertaken by managers have resulted to strengthening the brand image on international level and increasing the overall business output. The main strength of Scenario planning is based on reducing the negative impact of its business functioning and develops the value chain activities in such a manner which could avoid the possible business losses and efficient use of the scarcity of the resources. However, managers of BHP Billiton followed the set steps in developing the Scenario planning to safe the society and environment from the organizational activities such as determining the scope of the undertaken strategic program, identify the stakeholders who get influenced and will influence the business, setting key uncertainty which might impact the society in negative manner, construction of the initial draft Scenario planning. These all are the basic steps which need to be undertaken by BHP Billiton Company. Afterward, managers needs to analysis consistency of developed plans and research needs to identify the future problems and issues at the spot. This process assisted managers to manage the possible business issues and increasing the overall business output in appropriate manner (Cascetta, et al. (2015).
As per the views of Arkema, et al. (2015) it is reflected that the concept of the Scenario planning should be incorporated into the organizational policies and strategies if it wants to follow the sustainable development principles. These principles provide the economic development and social benefits to society which will strengthen and align the business interest with the social and economic development at large. Managers needs to include following parts in its Scenario planning such as greater accountability to non-traditional stakeholders and making continuous improvement in its reporting practices. This process has reflected that company could easily increase the overall outcomes and efficiency in long run if by using the past recorded data. It is considered that developing an effective management framework for Scenario planning requires addressing both decision making and corporate governance practices which will assist in complying with the applicable laws and prepare more responsive actions to the issues that arise from the sustainable development. Nonetheless, in some of the organizations such as Woolworths, Wesfarmers and Tesco, Scenario planning is included in the sustainable development practice and job description of the managers. As stated by Perrott, (2015) it is reflected that this organization assessed the future business needs and challenges at spot to strengthen its present business process. However, the same is directed and accustomed to act as per the directions and instructions of the managers. In case of BHP Billiton, managers are indulged in developing the business corporate strategies such as merger, amalgamation, and expansion and product development. These managers use the Scenario planning to identify the future issues with people might face if particular decision is taken by the organization.
Conclusion:
The Scenario planning is highly affected by the financial planning and strategic planning prepared by organization. If the Scenario planning prepared by the managers is not properly backed by the proper financial planning then it might result to destruction of the prepared plan which may negatively impact the business functioning and economic growth in long run. The financial planning in Scenario planning is accompanied with the process which is indulged in arrangement of finance or capital for the process changes which will assist managers to make the business more responsive for the identified problems in long run. Now in the end, it could be inferred that Scenario planning assists in strengthen the Organizaiton outcomes and aligning the interest of the business with the society and economic development.
References:
Arkema, K. K., Verutes, G. M., Wood, S. A., Clarke-Samuels, C., Rosado, S., Canto, M., … & Faries, J. (2015). Embedding ecosystem services in coastal planning leads to better outcomes for people and nature. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201406483.
Bennett, N. J., Blythe, J., Tyler, S., & Ban, N. C. (2016). Communities and change in the anthropocene: understanding social-ecological vulnerability and planning adaptations to multiple interacting exposures. Regional Environmental Change, 16(4), 907-926.
Cascetta, E., Carteni, A., Pagliara, F., & Montanino, M. (2015). A new look at planning and designing transportation systems: A decision-making model based on cognitive rationality, stakeholder engagement and quantitative methods. Transport policy, 5(38), 27-39.
Chapin, F. S., & Knapp, C. N. (2015). Sense of place: A process for identifying and negotiating potentially contested visions of sustainability. Environmental Science & Policy, 53, 38-46.
Cortinovis, C., & Geneletti, D. (2018). Mapping and assessing ecosystem services to support urban planning: A case study on brownfield regeneration in Trento, Italy. One Ecosystem, 3(5), e25477.
MacKay, R. B., & Stoyanova, V. (2017). Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 124(7), 88-100.
Millar, R. J., Hepburn, C., Beddington, J., & Allen, M. R. (2018). Principles to guide investment towards a stable climate. Nature Climate Change, 8(1), 2.
Mota, B., Gomes, M. I., Carvalho, A., & Barbosa-Povoa, A. P. (2015). Towards supply chain sustainability: economic, environmental and social design and planning. Journal of Cleaner Production, 105(23), 14-27.
Oteros-Rozas, E., Martín-López, B., Daw, T. M., Bohensky, E. L., Butler, J. R., Hill, R., … & Thyresson, M. (2015). Participatory scenario planning in place-based social-ecological research: insights and experiences from 23 case studies. Ecology and Society, 20(4).
Patassini, D. (2017). Beyond benefit cost analysis: accounting for non-market values in planning evaluation. Routledge.
Perrott, B. E. (2015). Building the sustainable organization: an integrated approach. Journal of Business Strategy, 36(1), 41-51.
Watkiss, P., Hunt, A., Blyth, W., & Dyszynski, J. (2015). The use of new economic decision support tools for adaptation assessment: A review of methods and applications, towards guidance on applicability. Climatic Change, 132(3), 401-416.
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