The area of geopolitics has always shown considerable amount of interest regarding energy as various conventional sources of energy such as coal, air and natural gas comprise of physio geographical variables which are of utmost strategic importance. In context of geopolitics it is widely believed that the authority of energy and the energy relation between the different producer countries with the transit countries and the consumer country are very vital elements which has the capacity to influence international relations. The location factor regarding the current location of the energy resources and the possible routes via which it can be brought to various consumer countries comprises a vital area of study within the subject of geopolitics. This report focuses on the geo-politics regarding the renewable sources of energy in the future among the various countries of the world like US and China that are transitioning to renewable sources of energy from non-renewable sources of energy.
Geopolitics is defined as the scientific area of study which belongs to both Political geography and International Relations and it also analyses the relation among politically acting individuals and their surrounding territory based on three dimensions namely physical-geographical, human-geographical and spatial. The geo-politics of conventional energy comprises of an entire literature by itself. The exploration and development of conventional sources of energy such as coal, oil, and natural gas requires high level of capital investments and also requires a military machine for its controlling. In the current times of increasing scarcity of conventional resources, the producer countries, the transit countries and the consumer countries are geopolitically positioning themselves in such a way so that it helps in safeguarding their energy security. Thought it is a fact that location and energy among themselves do not explain everything in terms of international relations or else one would have slipped into geographic or energetic determinism, but the way by which various societies shape their mix of energy is pivotal regarding both of their chances in context to their survival and development. The countries and regions which have adequate energy at their disposal remain in a better potential position than other countries.
The concept of renewable energy has come into the forefront in the last decade or so due to the consequence of various combining factors and trends. The last couple of decades have quite remarkably shown us that the burning of non-renewable and conventional energy sources have contributed to the rise in emission of greenhouse gases, have led to changes in climate, have led to the degradation of resources and have also led to the exhaustion of natural resources. In addition to that the entry of a large population of people, mostly from the Asian countries such as China in the global economic scenario have structurally impacted the demand for energy and therefore the scarcity of conventional energy sources could become a harsh reality in the coming years. All the above mentioned elements have pushed decision makers of various countries to make various choices in context of developing more renewable sources of energy and even turbulent market conditions have influenced the process of development of non-renewable sources of energy, though it has evolved jerkily in the past couple of years. Further the international stock market predict a situation of scarcity that can develop, similar to that of 2008 when a barrel of crude oil reached a record price of $147 in the international market where the prices of the conventional and non-renewable sources of energy multiplied in a short time period which created volatility in the market. Therefore due to this factor the renewable and non-conventional sources of energy tend to become more economic and interesting than conventional and renewable forms of energy. In 2008, after few months when the prices of energy decreased dramatically due to the global economic crisis, a reverse process developed in the then market which resulted in decrease in investments regarding renewable sources of energy and therefore this type of dynamics have made the study of renewable energy sources within a broader geo-political and geo-economical context very complex in nature.
In spite of the reduction in the production costs of various non-conventional sources of energy which have decreased greatly so as to help in achieving substantial level of penetration in the market but still it requires the assistance of various government policies such as carbon pricing, direct subsidies, feed-in tariffs and regulations for required usage of renewable sources of energy. The presence of such climate friendly policies in the country greatly helps in reducing the demand of conventional and non-renewable sources of energy which helps in reducing the prices of coal, gas and oil produces that are paid regarding these products. The stringency and timing of the climate policy will tend to affect the equilibrium of geo- political power between producers of non-conventional sources of energy and producers of conventional sources of energy. As a consequence neither the producers of the conventional sources of energy nor the producers of the non-conventional sources of energy display much certainty regarding the direction of the future policies of the government and regarding whether they are likely to experience penalties or support from the government.
There are various observations which are being noted regarding the geo-politics of renewable energy sources compared to non-renewable energy resources. The first observation which has been noted regarding geo-politics of renewable sources is that the renewable sources of energy shifts the focus from getting access to resources and raw materials to strategic management of infrastructure. The second observation which has been noted regarding geo-politics of renewable sources is that the non-conventional sources of energy transfer their strategic leverage from the producers of the energy sources to the consumers of the energy sources and to the countries which are able to provide storage and balancing services. The third observation which has been observed regarding geo-politics of renewable sources is that in the non-conventional sources of energy dominated system, most of the countries remain not only the producer of the energy but also they become the consumer of those sources of energy and as a result the need regarding energy imports may tend to significantly reduce any types of geo-political concerns.
It is a proven fact that renewable sources of energy such as wind and solar resources are more abundant in number than non-renewable sources of energy such as fossil fuels but the presence of non-conventional sources of energy greatly differs among various countries and regions as the availability of such non-conventional sources of energy greatly depends on the climate and latitude of those countries and regions and for this reason the cost of non-conventional forms of energy such as solar energy and wind energy tends to differ substantially. Based on the development of transition lines, the difference in cost of the non-conventional energy resources tends to potentially develop a situation which is similar to the modern day fossil world dominated era where the low cost producers of the energy sources enjoys greater geo-political power which can also lead to re-distribution of energy centers within countries and in between various countries. As a result of its intermittent nature, the non-conventional and renewable sources of energy require storage of energy which can arrive from various sources such as batteries, large scale hydro-water resources or pumped storage form of hydroelectricity.
Renewable and non-conventional sources of energy are more decentralized in nature when compared to conventional and non-renewable sources of energy. An interconnected network of renewable energy when combined with smart grids could potentially become more reliant and demands the potential for rejuvenation of the society in the sense that it has the capacity to empower individuals and the regional authorities of a country with regards to the central governments and their interests. The countries which invest heavily in development of renewable sources of energy have the potential to become major players of the world in this regard. The countries such as the US and the China invest heavily in the development of renewable sources of energy and therefore have the potential to become the major players in the market and as renewable sources of energy are growing and gaining higher percentage of the energy mixes in all countries, therefore it has the potential to alter their geopolitical positions among other countries. The countries like US and China which enjoy vital positions in context of geopolitics in the world of conventional resources will enjoy similar positions such as Saudi Arabia, as the demand and popularity of conventional resources will increase among the various countries of the world, and therefore the geo-political relations among the various countries in the world is bound to be affected. In spite of the ability of renewable sources of energy to alter the geo-political relations between the various countries of the world there are also certain issues which do not work in favor of renewable sources of energy such as bigger projects regarding non-conventional sources of energy suffer more security issues than conventional sources of energy.
Problems faced regarding non-conventional sources
The geo-politics regarding non-conventional sources of energy also give rise to various opportunities and threats which are geo-technical in nature. One of the most important problems which will be faced by various countries such as US and China is concerns regarding the issues of rare earth materials which are required for technological advancements regarding conventional energy sources. According to various eminent researchers, the green geo-political catastrophes may look same to those which are associated with the conventional energy sources. In this regards it can be stated that though there might be green protectionism in the countries belonging to the western world, but also the conditions of the country which produces oil can be an area of problem in an era where the demand for renewable and non-conventional sources of energy are fast growing in nature. In most probability, the geopolitics regarding conventional sources of energy and the non-conventional sources of energy will co-exist simultaneously for upcoming few decades and therefore the decision makers of the energy sector of the countries like US and China needs to be more creative in nature in order to try to cancel out the drawbacks of one energy sources with the advantage of the other source of energy. In the above mentioned context, the geopolitics regarding energy sources is bound to get more complex in nature as the policy makers will have to deal with a host of issues regarding foreign policy, international security and diplomacy. Therefore, instead of approaching the geo-political issue in antithetical terms, decision makers should focus on more systematic approaches regarding the study of geo-politics, energy and transition of power.
As various countries around the world sch as US and China are adopting more non-conventional sources of energy, the producers, consumers and the government of these countries have got stuck and are therefore making decisions surrounded with multiple uncertainties regarding the decisions which will affect which sources of energy will take center stage in order to dominate the future. Similarly the energy producers which are low carbon in nature focuses on winning political allies in order to advocate the need for treatment which will be preferential in nature of their technologies through various forms such as tax credit, loan guarantees, investment tax credit renewable power mandates and so on. It is mostly observed that these preferential treatments are hard to remove once they are being introduced, regarding installation of renewable sources which have changed in a dramatic manner.
During the transition period from high carbon energy to low carbon energy, various countries and regions requires to take multiple decisions without the required amount of substantial interest in implementing new forms of technology with possible large implications which are geo-political in nature. Despite multiple uncertainties and few backward actions in context of development of conventional energy resources by various countries, there is no doubt regarding the balance of power regarding geopolitical energy which is moving from the owners of fossil fuels to the countries which are keen on developing non-conventional low carbon solutions. For instance, China is seeking to become a global leader in providing nuclear, wind and solar technologies by using them in a domestic manner and also by building their capacity regarding exporting them to other countries. Globally, it is observed that the support of the government of a country regarding production of low carbon energies at times results in the creation of price war regarding the price of solar and wind generation equipment. For instance in 2013 also, the EU imposed strict guidelines and restrictions regarding anti-subsidy and anti-dumping measures regarding import of panels and solar cells from China and in 2016, the EU further extended their measures on Chinese transshipment such as Taiwan and Malaysia.
The geo-politics of renewable and conventional energy resources though resembles the post-Cold war world, in which in majority of the times everyone was unknown and unclear about the next challenge likely to occur, the form which the challenge will assume or its source of inception. The current players of the current renewable and non-conventional sources of energy are numerous in nature and are also de-centralized in nature. As the current players in the renewable energy sources engage in negotiation process regarding the resources required, the technology to be implemented, the transmission lines to be followed and when more government organizations and more players in the industry have a lot to learn regarding navigation of the transition of the energy even when the policies which helps in determining the change remain highly uncertain in nature.
Conclusion
From the above report it is clear and evident that the renewable r conventional sources of energy will determine the future geo-political relations between the various countries which is currently dominated and influenced due to fossil fuels. From the above report it can be also stated that the countries which have invested heavily in the development of non-conventional sources are likely to remain in an advantageous position than other countries regarding the domination of geo-political relationships between various countries.
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