Discuss About The Financial Markets And Portfolio Management.
Reactive risk management involves the identification of risks and measures to curb or reduce them way after they have already occurred based on the audit and evaluation findings after its occurrence. On the hand, proactive risk management involves identification of a probably risk way before an incident occurs after relevant observations and measurements have already been obtained (Norrman and Jansson, 2004, p. 434-456).
Risk management process has various aspects in a logical manner. First, we start by assessing the risk faced and this involves identification, measurement, and financing of the risk (Jorion, 2001).Once that is in order, control measures are adopted and then the risk portfolio is monitored.
The main type of sources of risk in an organization includes systematic and diversifiable risk, liquidity risk, credit risk, business risk and market risk (Jüttner, Peck, and Christopher, 2003, 197-210).
Risk register which is also known as risk log is a tool used to document risks and the relevant actions to be taken so as to manage them. Its contents include a brief description of each risk, risk category, risk rating, the probability of occurrence of a risk and common mitigation steps in case of occurrence (Cassar, G., 2004, p. 265).
This is because general risks arise from external events that the organization has no control over such as fire whereas the operational risk can be controlled as they arise from the failure of internal processes, individuals, and scheme or even outside events (Wipplinger, 2007, p. 397).
The achievement of desired outcomes, efficient use of resources in the organization, presence of transparency and clear accountability in the organization (Tao, 2010, p. 1-4).
Risk management system involves the identification, quantification, and management of risks that a firm is facing. On the other hand, systematic approach to risk management mainly involves being ready with contingency plans just in case any type of risk faces the organization at any time(Stewart and Roth, 2001, p. 145).
The outcome of events in an organization is always uncertain because various levels of risk are involved. This, therefore, calls for proper risk governance through a proper risk management system. The system should be in a position to identify, measure, finance, control and monitor risk efficiently.
Risk can be of high consequence or low consequence depending on the amount of uncertainty involved. One has to consider the amount of risk he is able to take and the amount he is comfortable taking in regards to his financial level. Various types of risk have different levels of consequences to an organization
Lost time injury is that amount of time lost when an employee is not able to perform his duties for a day or a shift because of an injury he sustained during work. This puts the organization at a risk of low labor turn out which might decline the levels of production and hence putting the organization at a risk of lesser profits or even loss. The amount of lost time injuries that arise during the reporting period is what levels up to the lost time injury frequency rate. However this does not create much of a risk as the company could easily maintain a good safety culture, train the employees on how to keep safe from any types of injuries and also the organization could conduct a regular hazard assessment system (Blewett, 1994, p. 1-55). Moreover, another employee could be called upon to perform the duties of the injured employee. This, therefore, shows that lost time injury frequency rate is not a high consequence value risk to an organization as measures can be put to control its consequences. As long as the organization has an effective risk management system, LTIFR will not be much of a problem in the risk measurement and control.
Every organization requires a proper risk management committee for its risks governance. A high-quality risk governance will be full of transparency and clear accountability as well as efficiency in the use of resources and achievement of desired outcomes.
A competent management team prefers to put the organization in face of lower losses as it is the main aim of the organization to make profits. It also has to ensure that the cost involved in identification, initiation, transfer of the risk and enforcement are low as possible as this form the transaction costs(Stevenson and Hojati, 2007). These include the financial distress costs, the cost required for issuing external financing, cost of implementing risk management and costs of ensuring a strong risk profile.
In order for the company to avoid high losses resulting from various types of risk, the organization has to ensure that proper risk management measures are put in place. The higher the cost invested in this process of risk governance the higher the probability of the organization being safe from losses (Stevenson, W.J. and Hojati, M., 2007). These are because a proper management team will be made which will enable the organization to control and monitor the risks that it may be facing and therefore reducing the consequence values of those risks. Operating with lower loss and risk costs and with higher risk control costs also improves the organization’s public image and therefore making it attractive for making investments and they can also easily get financial support which is really good for the business. Last but not least, the organization’s resources gains much protection.
Risk can be measured making it have various ways by which it can be controlled. The total cost of risk greatly depends on this argument. It is considered to be the costs incurred by insurance companies as premium, administrative costs and indirect costs in the process of performing safety and risk management programs (Stevenson and Hojati, 2007). All these costs are controllable as they can be tracked and monitored. Moreover, there are operational tactics that can be implemented so as to manage and reduce these costs.
The total cost of risk is made up of different constituents the first being insurance premiums. It is the most easily tracked component of total cost of risk. Another constituent of TCOR is the costs needed to protect the employees or even customers from injury during operations. These costs are not easy to track and they include costs for safety equipment, training and warning signs, e.t.c. However, they could be tracked as part of the total cost of risk for the business internally. Retained losses is also a constituent of a total cost of risk. This is the amount of money an organization spends to fix an issue but it is not deducted from there account as they are below the organization’s deductibles. The next element of TCOR is the costs needed to engage firms for assistance with their risk and insurance issues. An organization could hire an attorney to help them with this issues. This element is seen as an external risk control cost. Lastly, TCOR is constituted of productivity loss. This could arise due to losses or even injury and the time and resources taken to fix them.
The country might have conducted elections which might have resulted in post-election violence and majorly political instability. This event will result in the organization facing market risk.
The main event, in this case, is political instability that may be accompanied by chaos. These would give the organization poor working conditions that would see its performance going down and therefore most probably incurring losses. The aftermath of this event will result in a decrease in demand, loss of license of the business due to loss of control and decrease in supply which all have consequences. A decrease in demand will be as a result of poor working conditions which might lead the customer into losing confidence in the organization((Ni, H., Chen and Chen, 2010, p. 1269). Other competitive companies might also take advantage of the current situation and therefore be handing them a tough competition to deal with.
The organization may also lose its operating license due to not being able to meet their dues such as paying taxes and running bankrupt. The organization might also lose its supply due to the various conditions surrounding it. These would see the downfall of the organization as the laborers will likely withdraw their labor. The suppliers will also terminate their contracts due to financial failure and therefore be leaving the company without resources or raw materials to work with.
The risk matrix is also known as impact or probability matrix. It is a software that is used in capturing identified risks, estimating their impact and the occurrence probability and then ranking the risks as per this information (Pickering and Cowley, 2010,
Risk matrix can be used in the critical evaluation of risk and it depends on various processes to be carried out. The first step towards the evaluation is the planning for the activity to be conducted. A risk evaluation team with a facilitator is selected and the ground rules are set for the application in the risk matrix.
Secondly, the team identifies key program requirements or objectives. This will help in the identification of risks. After that, the team facilitator helps in the process of identifying program risks and arranging them in an affinity diagram. After that, the team concurs on grouping titles to be used for every group and then identifies full risk statements neede in the affinity diagram. These are then entered in the risk entry worksheet of the risk matrix. The team then assigns various attributes, proper time frame, impact and chances of occurrence of each risk. After that, risk matrix impact classifications are set;
At this point, the team has all the required information needed to rank the risks. Therefore we move to the step of ranking program risks. Risk ranking is calculated using the Borda method which ranks the risks in descending order on the basis of multiple evaluation criteria. After ranking the risks from the most critical to the least critical, they are then managed by a good risk management committee. This committee will eliminate some risks in case the requirements changes, some will need a transfer in the case of inadequate resources to handle them while others will need mitigation strategies. After managing the risks, the management team will then manage the action plan as the risk matrix provide an execution plan in the superior mode. This is used for tracing risk execution plans and in the adjustment rankings of the risk on the basis of action plan status. The management team should continue monitoring and evaluating risks at a periodical interval. Through this process, it will be evident whether the level of importance of the risk has changed or even if new risks that need management have come up. The advanced mode used in risk matrix is able to support a continuous evaluation process (Goerlandt and Reniers, 2016, P. 67-77)
Figure 1 Mechanism Analysis Logic Diagram.
The main event is the failure of the RAF ejector seat to function properly. This could have been because of the faulty pin, case of sabotage or even a case of the faulty parachute. All these events result in consequences which are as a result of them as it is seen in Figure 1 above (Ball and Watt, 2013).
Figure 2. Outcome Analysis Diagram
Questions used in the outcome analysis;
Was the RAF ejector seat checked by a specialist before it was approved for testing in the field? This is to ascertain whether risk measures were taken into considerations before the test.
Was the pilot in question prepared and alright psychologically? This is so as to know if he is the one that messed the seat with intentions of maybe committing suicide.
Did the pilot report the problem early enough? If so, could the technical team do anything to save the situation?
Is there evidence that the ejector seat was not functioning properly before the plane took off? This is to determine if the case was reported or had a suspicion but was treated with ignorance.
Were there safety measures put aside in case an event such as that occurred as a precautionary measure? This is to show if the company was prepared enough for the pilot before doing their testing (Lankhorst, 2009).
References
Ball, D.J., and Watt, J., 2013. Further thoughts on the utility of risk matrices. Risk analysis, 33(11), pp.2068-2078.
Blewett, V., 1994. Beyond lost time injuries: Positive performance indicators for OHS, summary paper. Positive Performance Indicators: Beyond Lost Time Injuries: Part 1—Issues, pp.1-55.
Cassar, G., 2004. The financing of business start-ups. Journal of business venturing, 19(2), pp.261-283.
Diamond, D.W., and Rajan, R.G., 2001. Liquidity risk, liquidity creation, and financial fragility: A theory of banking. Journal of Political Economy, 109(2), pp.287-327.
Goerlandt, F. and Reniers, G., 2016. On the assessment of uncertainty in risk diagrams. Safety Science, 84, pp.67-77.
Jorion, P., 2001. Value at risk: the new benchmark for managing financial risk (Vol. 2). New York: McGraw-Hill.
Jüttner, U., Peck, H. and Christopher, M., 2003. Supply chain risk management: outlining an agenda for future research. International Journal of Logistics: Research and Applications, 6(4), pp.197-210.
Lankhorst, M., 2009. Enterprise architecture at work: Modelling, communication, and analysis. Springer Science & Business Media.
Müller, A. and Stoyan, D., 2002. Comparison methods for stochastic models and risks (Vol. 389). Wiley.
Ni, H., Chen, A. and Chen, N., 2010. Some extensions of risk matrix approach. Safety Science, 48(10), pp.1269-1278.
Norrman, A. and Jansson, U., 2004. Ericsson’s proactive supply chain risk management approach after a serious sub-supplier accident. International journal of physical distribution & logistics management, 34(5), pp.434-456.
Pickering, A. and Cowley, S.P., 2010. Risk Matrices: implied accuracy and false assumptions. ReSeaRcH & PRactice, p.11
Stevenson, W.J. and Hojati, M., 2007. Operations management (Vol. 8). Boston: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Stewart Jr, W.H. and Roth, P.L., 2001. Risk propensity differences between entrepreneurs and managers: A meta-analytic review. Journal of applied psychology, 86(1), p.145.
Tao, S., 2010, December. Credit risk control of micro-loan company on soft information. In Information Science and Engineering (ICISE), 2010 2nd International Conference on (pp. 1-4). IEEE.
Wipplinger, E., 2007. Philippe Jorion: Value at Risk-The New Benchmark for Managing Financial Risk. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 21(3), p.397.
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