Technology Forecasting And Strategic Technology Planning: A Literature Review And Research Proposal

Literature Review

Technology has emerged as one of the biggest contributor to the competitive advantage and sustainability that an organisation enjoys. The technologies such as Cloud Computing, Big data, Internet of Things and other similar technological advancements are entertaining the organisations. Additionally, the introduction of disruptive technologies such as BCI (brain Computer Interface), 3D printers and other are also making their way into the organisations. The introduction of disruptive technological tools and techniques have developed a very crucial situation for the organisations (Wan, Williamson and Yin 2015). The situation in discussion is about the adoption and compatibility of disruptive technologies in organisation and its processes. Hence, the firms are assessing their focus on planning the adoption and implication before investing in any technology.

One of the most prominent solution for the discussed situation is technology forecasting which is the subject of the proposed paper. The subject of the paper is a tool that is capable of offering its assistance in identifying the impact of technological change such as the timing, functional capacity, significance and similar other factors of the technologies (Lim 2018). In other words, the subject forecasts the future of the technological adoption and how the discussed adoption will impact the owners (Rai et al. 2017). The subject can be used for strategic technology planning and the proposed paper is aimed at analysing the how the subject can assist in strategic planning of the technology. The paper will do a literary review of the past works and identify the gap, based upon which the research questions will be developed. The expected outcome, research methodology and project plan (both time and budget) are also discussed before analysing the risk to summarise the paper.

Technology forecasting (TF) is one of the tools that had proved to be a major difference maker for the organisations who wishes to plan their technology(ies). Several researches has been assessed on the subject and the discussed section offers a summary of the most relevant literary work

Strategic technology planning is a strategy plan that enables the planners to understand their current technological status and where their technological infrastructure is moving. The consideration of the organisational operations and impact of the technology is also taken in account to earn sustainability and competitive advantage. Tung (2016), states that strategic technology planning (STP) can be equipped by the governing entities (such as government, organisation owners and others) to mitigate the issues such as technology gap and other major issues. STP is vital because it offers ROI (Return on Investment) for the technology that the organisation is using and in the absence of the former, the technology may be used inadequately which in the process may prove to be catastrophic for the organisation (Bryson 2018). STP also assists in defining the roles & responsibilities that each of the technology should offer in the organisation with context to the organisational mission vision and strategy.

Technology Forecasting

Several researches have been conducted to identify the most prominent method to do the planning in discussion and most of them are vital in nature. However, one thing that is relevant in most of them is the structure that is proposed for the STP. The first step includes researching the needs of the organisation, followed by the roles and responsibilities that the technology is planning in the organisation (Bryson 2018). The following step includes brainstorming on the responsibilities that the technology can be given, while deciding the responsibilities the capability of the technology is given adequate attention. Post selection of the responsibilities, a consultancy is done to assess the responsibility of the success of the technology and in the process of the organisation post which the plan is devised (Cassidy 2016). As part of the consultancy either the organisation outsource the discussed process or hires an expert to assess the deemed duty. However, the deemed strategy development can be simplified by the introduction of the technology forecasting tool.

Technology forecasting is the process of forecasting the technology that takes consideration of the characteristics, timing, dimension, diffusion rate of machines, invention, dimension performance in context to the organisation (Gupta and Barua 2016). The role of technology forecasting has been defined by Sylak-Glassman, Williams and Gupta (2016), where they state that the former plays a major role in decision making. Additionally, the authors have also stated that to leverage the subject of paper it is of great prominence that it should fit in the ongoing workflow structure while being compatible with the decision making structure. However, the authors have also stated that the low rate of technology forecasting is because most of organisations does not depend on technology for decision making and hence, it is a constraint. An and Ahn (2016) have supported the claims made above and have also stated that TF cannot be avoided in the modern society and the governing entities should adopt it soon or their competitive advantage may be compromised.

An and Ahn (2016) in their paper have attempted at proving that the implication of the subject offers innovative management to an organisation. The statement of the authors in discussion can be taken as base to state that TF offers a path for entertaining competitive advantage for the organisation which is supported by Cheng et al. (2017). The authors have cited special attention to the disruptive technologies & disruption. Disruption is categorised in two different categories one being the technological disruption and other is industrial disruption. Discussing about the technological disruption Cheng et al. (2016) have stated that with timely adjustment in the technological strategy, the firm may be able to entertain minimisation of the technological and in the process operational threats. They also support the adoption of the technology forecasting as part of the decision making process.

Strategic Technology Planning

The review of the literary work can be summarised to state that technology forecasting has been considered as one of the most prominent need for an organisation and is one of the well-researched topic. However, certain gaps have been identified in the literature associated with the technology forecasting and strategic technology planning and the following section have attempted to point out the gaps.

One of the most prominent gap that had been identified post the literature review is that though attention has been cited on the need of the subject in the decision making and management processes of an organisation very little or no attention have been cited to the role of the subject in strategic technology planning. Though some researches have cited that technology forecasting can play a vital role in planning but no focus have been cited on the strategic technology planning. Additionally, no assessment has also been conducted on determining the accuracy of the decisions that are made based on the technology forecasting because errors have been identified in technology forecasting in the past. The role of technology has been limited to assessment of the technologies in application and decision making on the existing technologies.  Another gap identified is that no proper assessment has been done to identify the role that the subject is capable of playing in the adoption of disruptive technologies. Hence, based on the gaps identified above the research objectives and questions for the proposed paper have been developed.

The primary objective of the paper is to identify the role that technology forecasting is capable of playing in the strategic technology planning of an organisation. Additionally, the paper will also attempt to identify the errors (if any) exists in the technology forecasting to ensure that the strategic technology planning is fruitful for the organisation. The primary objective and sub-objectives that the proposed paper will pursue has been listed as follows:

• To identify the role that technology forecasting is capable of playing in strategic technology planning.
• To identify the vitality of the subject and its implication in the strategic technology planning.
• To identify the role that technology forecasting can play in adoption of disruptive technology.
• To determine the chances of errors in strategic technology planning post adoption of technology forecasting.
• To determine whether or not traditional decision making is superior than with technology forecasting.

The objectives of the proposed paper can be summarised to conclude on the research questions for the proposed research work. Based on the objectives of the paper the research questions of the proposed paper have been listed as follows:

1. What role can technology forecasting play in the strategic technology planning?
2. Is there any chance of errors in the strategic technology planning post adoption of the technology forecasting?

• Which decision making process is superior technology forecasting based decision making or traditional decision making?

The proposed paper is aimed at offering an insight at the relationship between technology forecasting and strategic technology planning. The outcome of the paper will prove to be crucial in assisting the organisations or scholars to conclude on the role that the subject is capable of playing in strategic planning. The organisations will be benefitted by gaining a clear concept over the adoption of technology forecasting while the scholars and academic readers will get a background for further research work on the subject. Additionally, if any errors are identified in the strategic planning post adoption of the subject, it will offer the scholars with chance to assess on the mitigation strategy for the identified errors.

Research Questions

Literary work based on the technology forecasting and strategic technology planning will play a crucial role in establishing the background for the proposed research work. The philosophy for the proposed paper will be positivism because both the scientific and abstract data will be detailed to understand the perception of the organisations about the subject (Hughes and Sharrock 2016). The design for the paper will be analytical while deductive approach will be pursued to conclude on the research work (Lewis 2015). The data collection will be done through mixed data collection method where both the primary and secondary data will be collected. The sampling of the data will be done by taking consideration of both the likelihood and non-likelihood sampling method because both qualitative and quantitative data will be collected as part of the primary data (Stage and Manning 2015). The analysis of the data will be done with assistance of statistical tool, MS Excel (Silverman 2016).

Data collection will be done based on mixed data collection methodology. First secondary data will be collected through reviewing the literary work of past over relevant subjects and current data will be collected from newspapers, magazines, government publications and others (Palinkas et al. 2015). The next step would be summarised the secondary data and based on the summarised data questionnaire will be developed. The questionnaire will then be distributed among different organisation and to different technology forecasting professionals to collect primary quantitative data (Rassia 2017). The quantitative data will then be summarised to develop interview questions for the collection of primary qualitative data. In the final steps all the data will be summarised to conclude on the findings.

The sampling of quantitative data will be done based likelihood sampling method while qualitative data will be sampled based on the non-likelihood sampling method (Sutton and Austin 2015). The analysis of the data will be done with assistance of MS excel statistical tool (Taylor, Bogdan and Devault 2015). It should also be noted that if any additional tool is equipped as part of the analysis process it will be mentioned in the final report.

Task Name	Duration	Start	Finish	Predecessors
Technology Forecasting in Strategic Technology Planning	104 days	Mon 23-07-18	Thu 13-12-18
Phase 1: Initialisation	15 days	Mon 23-07-18	Fri 10-08-18
Topic selection	2 days	Mon 23-07-18	Tue 24-07-18
Background establishment	5 days	Wed 25-07-18	Tue 31-07-18	2
Brainstorming	2 days	Wed 01-08-18	Thu 02-08-18	3
Preliminary review	4 days	Fri 03-08-18	Wed 08-08-18	4
Research objectives and questions	2 days	Thu 09-08-18	Fri 10-08-18	5
Phase 2: Planning	11 days	Mon 13-08-18	Mon 27-08-18
Timeline	5 days	Mon 13-08-18	Fri 17-08-18	6
Budget	3 days	Mon 20-08-18	Wed 22-08-18	8
Drafting Research Paper	2 days	Thu 23-08-18	Fri 24-08-18	9
Draft Completed	0 days	Wed 22-08-18	Wed 22-08-18	9
Proposal Submission	1 day	Mon 27-08-18	Mon 27-08-18	10
Phase 3: Execution	41 days	Tue 28-08-18	Tue 23-10-18
Literature review	10 days	Tue 28-08-18	Mon 10-09-18	12
Summarising Literature finding	5 days	Tue 11-09-18	Mon 17-09-18	14
Developing questionnaire	2 days	Tue 18-09-18	Wed 19-09-18	15
Collection of quantitative data	5 days	Thu 20-09-18	Wed 26-09-18	16
Summarising quantitative data	6 days	Thu 27-09-18	Thu 04-10-18	17
Collection of Qualitative data	8 days	Fri 05-10-18	Tue 16-10-18	18
Summarising Qualitative Data	5 days	Wed 17-10-18	Tue 23-10-18	19
Phase 4: Analysis	23 days	Wed 24-10-18	Fri 23-11-18
Summarising all data	10 days	Wed 24-10-18	Tue 06-11-18	15,18,20
Concluding	8 days	Wed 07-11-18	Fri 16-11-18	22
Report Development	5 days	Mon 19-11-18	Fri 23-11-18	23
Report Completed	0 days	Fri 23-11-18	Fri 23-11-18	23,24
Phase 5: Closure	14 days	Mon 26-11-18	Thu 13-12-18
Submission of Report	4 days	Mon 26-11-18	Thu 29-11-18	24
Oral Presentation	10 days	Fri 30-11-18	Thu 13-12-18	27

Table: Project Timeline and Budget

(Source: Created by Author Using MS Project)

Sl. No.	Risk/Vulnerabilities	Description	Likelihood	Impact
1	Schedule Escalation	If the schedule extends the timeframe.	3	5
2	Budget Escalation	The project is not completed in estimated budget	4	5
3	Error in questionnaire formulation	Error in questionnaire development	3	4
4	Distribution of questionnaire	Questionnaire Distribution error	2	4
5	Lack of Response	Little response will impact the outcome	4	4
6	Improper understanding	Inadequate understanding of the project motive by the participants	3	5
7	Error in the analysing	Analysis error will impact the outcome	2	2
8	Software error	Error in statistical tool	3	3
9	Improper recording	Inadequate recording of the findings	2	5
10	Concluding and structuring	Appropriate concluding and structuring is crucial to make the report viable for readers	1	3
11	Ethical issues	Ethical issues development	3	3
Likelihood	5
4				5	2
3			8 11	3	1 6
2		7		4	9
1			10
1	2	3	4	5
Impact

Table: Risk Analysis and Risk Matrix

(Source: Created by Author)

Conclusion

Hence the report can be summarised to state that technology forecasting is one of the prominent fields that is getting attention from the researchers and scholars. However, it implication and association is one of the field that still needs to be assessed by the by the researchers. Hence based on the identified gaps the research objective of the proposed paper has been developed. The data will be collected by mixed data collection of methodology where both secondary data and primary data (both qualitative and quantitative). Hence, the proposal can be concluded to state that the research work in discussion will offer prominent advantage to the organisations as part of the adoption of technology forecasting in strategic technology planning and will also develop a base for future researches.

Research Methodology

References

An, H.J. and Ahn, S.J., 2016. Emerging technologies—beyond the chasm: Assessing technological forecasting and its implication for innovation management in Korea. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 102, pp.132-142.

Bryson, J.M., 2018. Strategic planning for public and nonprofit organizations: A guide to strengthening and sustaining organizational achievement. John Wiley & Sons.

Budayan, C., Dikmen, I., Birgonul, M.T. and Ghaziani, A., 2018. A computerized method for delay risk assessment based on fuzzy set theory using MS Project™. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering, pp.1-12.

Cassidy, A., 2016. A practical guide to information systems strategic planning. Auerbach Publications.

Cheng, Y., Huang, L., Ramlogan, R. and Li, X., 2017. Forecasting of potential impacts of disruptive technology in promising technological areas: Elaborating the SIRS epidemic model in RFID technology. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 117, pp.170-183.

Dayani, M. and Gelbard, R., 2017. Software Project Planning Through Simulation of Entire Project’s Problem-Space. International Journal of Information Technology Project Management (IJITPM), 8(3), pp.22-39.

Gupta, H. and Barua, M.K., 2016. Identifying enablers of technological innovation for Indian MSMEs using best–worst multi criteria decision making method. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 107, pp.69-79.

Hughes, J.A. and Sharrock, W.W., 2016. The philosophy of social research. Routledge.

Lewis, S., 2015. Qualitative inquiry and research design: Choosing among five approaches. Health promotion practice, 16(4), pp.473-475.

Lim, D.J., 2018. Technology forecasting using DEA in the presence of infeasibility. International Transactions in Operational Research, 25(5), pp.1695-1706.

Modarres, M., Kaminskiy, M.P. and Krivtsov, V., 2016. Reliability engineering and risk analysis: a practical guide. CRC press.

Palinkas, L.A., Horwitz, S.M., Green, C.A., Wisdom, J.P., Duan, N. and Hoagwood, K., 2015. Purposeful sampling for qualitative data collection and analysis in mixed method implementation research. Administration and Policy in Mental Health and Mental Health Services Research, 42(5), pp.533-544.

Rassia, S.T., 2017. Research Data Collection. In Workplace Environmental Design in Architecture for Public Health (pp. 33-39). Springer, Cham.

Ray, M., Rai, A., Singh, K.N., Ramasubramanian, V. and Kumar, A., 2017. Technology forecasting using time series intervention based trend impact analysis for wheat yield scenario in India. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 118, pp.128-133.

Silverman, D. ed., 2016. Qualitative research. Sage.

Stage, F.K. and Manning, K., 2015. What is your research approach?. In Research in the college context (pp. 29-54). Routledge.

Sutton, J. and Austin, Z., 2015. Qualitative research: data collection, analysis, and management. The Canadian journal of hospital pharmacy, 68(3), p.226.

Sylak-Glassman, E.J., Williams, S.R. and Gupta, N., 2016. Current and Potential Use of Technology Forecasting Tools in the Federal Government. Institute for Defense Analyses Alexandria United States.

Taylor, S.J., Bogdan, R. and DeVault, M., 2015. Introduction to qualitative research methods: A guidebook and resource. John Wiley & Sons.

Wan, F., Williamson, P.J. and Yin, E., 2015. Antecedents and implications of disruptive innovation: Evidence from China. Technovation, 39, pp.94-104.