Question:
Discuss about the determinants of Profitability of state-owned as well as joint- stock Chinese Commercial banks after the Global Economic Crisis (GFC).
This chapter examines the determinants of profitability of state-owned as well as joint- stock Chinese commercial banks after the global economic crisis (GFC). The determinants of profitability of the commercial banks are usually grouped into both the internal factors and external factors. The internal factors are generally under the control of management while the external factors are ahead of the bank management control. The internal determinants provide the reflection of how the bank management policies as well as decisions vary regarding the composition of assets (Allah Teng-su-dao & Yu-ming, 2013). This signifies the amount of investment in both current as well as non-current assets, deposit composition interpreting current as well as fixed deposits, capital adequacy indicating ratio of debt to equity, efficiency in operative expense and the dependency on the liquidity management and debt leverage. Both the theoretical and empirical aspect of these internal factors is analyzed in this study. On the other hand, the external determinants of profitability including macro environment and industry structure are also explained in this research study. A well –capitalized commercial bank is risk averse and improves confidence of the public, reduces cost of bankruptcy and leads to positive effect on profit margin.
The determinant that affects the profitability in commercial banks is split into two groups that includes- internal or bank specific factors and external or macroeconomic factors as well as industry structure. The internal factors includes bank size, cost to income ratio, capital adequacy ratio, interbank offered rate etc while the external factors includes inflation, GDP, unemployment rate etc.
Bank size has been considered as the pertinent determinant of its profitability level. Large size banks reduce cost due to economies of scale. In fact, diversification opportunities permit in maintaining returns while reducing risk. On the contrary, large bank size implies that it can be unmanageable to the management or it might be result of aggressive growth strategy of banks. De Haan & Poghosyan (2012) states that, large bank size tend to be highly profitable in the industrial nations. In case of Chinese banks, large bank size seems to be linked with more government intervention as the they are the state owned commercial banks with huge portion of government intervention and ownership.
Cost to income ratio refers to the measure of efficiency indicating the cost of operation in banks as percentage of income. Qin & Dickson (2012) states that larger the cost to income ratio, less efficient the commercial banks will be. This in turn adversely impacts on the banks profit based on the extent of market competition.
Capital adequacy ratio (CAR) refers to the ratio of banks capital to their risk. This helps in determining the capacity of banks for meeting time liabilities as well as other risk including operational risk, credit risk etc. Zhao, Zuo & Zillante (2013) found out that this ratio affects the performance of banks positively, although it is confined to state-owned banks.
Inter- bank offered rate refers to the interest rate at which the commercial banks lend as well as borrow from each other in the inter- bank market. The commercial banks borrow as well as lend money in the interbank market for managing liquidity and meeting reserve requirements sited by regulators. This rate has been considered as the leading gauge for the central bank when they creates as well as conducts monetary policies. This factor also helps in determining profitability rate in the state owned as well as joint stocks commercial banks.
Nonperforming loan ratio refers to the sum of total amount borrowed upon which the payments has not been made by the debtor for 90 days. The lending policy of the commercial banks has vital influence on the NPLs. This lending decision of the banks in turn has huge significance in the banks as it determines their future level of profitability and performance. As stated by Tan & Floros (2012), the immediate result of huge amount of total NPLs leads to failure in banks and economic slowdown.
Besides this, the profitability in banks can be measured in terms of return on equity(ROE), return on assets (ROA) and net interest margin(NIM). The primary interest of bank owners is ROE as with the help of this they earn on investment, which in turn depends on ROA and total asset value. ROA refers to the financial ratio that reflects profit percentage that the bank earns with respect to its total resources. Similarly, NIM reflects how well the commercial banks earn income on their assets. Thus, high NIM signifies well-managed commercial banks and also signifies future profitability.
Principal component analysis refers to the mathematical process that is used to transform number of correlated variables into uncorrelated variables. It also represents powerful tool to analyze data by declining several dimensions without any loss of information applied in datasets. The PC is used for identifying risk exposure and determine profitability in banks
In order to measure the profitability of Chinese commercial banks, the principal component analysis has been carried out. The principal component variable that is used in this study includes ROAA, ROAE and NIM. ROAA, ROAE and NIM represents return on assets, return on equity and net interest margin. The principal component analysis attempts in reorganizing the multiple indicators with specific correlation into new set of indicators, which are not dependent on each other (Chen, Chong & She, 2014). ROA refers to an indicator that indicates the profitability level of bank or organization in relation to its total assets. It is estimated by the ratio of net income to the total assets. It has been seen from the article (Economics.uwo.ca, 2017) that, higher the ROA, lower the risk of banks’ financial instability. The ability of bank helps in generating sufficient as well as sustainable profitability raises its market continuity. However, in China, the ROA reflects positive sign of coefficient. This reflects the fact that after the GFC, the profitability level of Chinese commercial banks increased and risk of instability in banks also decreased.
ROE refers to the net amount of income returned in terms of percentage of the shareholders equity. It determines profitability that is generated from the total amount of capital , which the shareholder. The ROE of the Chinese banks increased from 2009 to 2014 but suddenly it fell in the last two years ( 2015 and 2016). This highlights that the level of profitability increased from 2009 to 2014 but it fell in the last two years, which adversely affected their financial performance. In comparison to ROE, ROA has been considered as the better measure of the banks profitability as it is affected by banks capital structure.
Another principal component that has been used in determining the profitability of Chinese commercial banks is NIM. NIM refers to the measurement of the divergence between interest income that has been generated by banks and the interest given to the lenders (Ijsrp.org. 2017). Recent statistics shows that the NIM in Chinese banks has increased over the years 2009 to 2016. Therefore higher the NIM, larger will be the profit margin of banks. This variable is attributable to the huge operational efficiency and better management.
After the GFC, these coefficients highlights that total assets as well as bank capitalization had no adverse impact on the anticipated high value variables such as equity ratio, capital adequacy ratio, ROE, ROA etc. Additionally, bank capitalization as well as assets exerted no positive impact on the small value variables such as operating cost ratio (Johnston, 2014). The size of bank capitalization had positive impact on the capital adequacy and equity ratio after the sub-prime crisis period. This reflects that capitalization of bank counteracts the adverse impact on the capital adequacy during the financial crisis period
DEA refers to the non-parametric efficiency evaluation methodology from output to input that uses output with input and hence constrict effective decision-making unit (DMU). It is specially used for measuring productive efficiency of the banks or decision-making units (DMU). This tool is also utilized to benchmark in the banks operation management for estimating production and profitability level.
After the GFC, the results of DEA reflect that the technical efficiency and profitability of the commercial had less volatility. The output indicators shows that total loans of the five state owned banks in China had decreased while the total deposits increased during this period (Dietrich & Wanzenried, 2012). Likewise, the output indicators of joint stock commercial banks indicates that the total loans had declined but the input indicators signifies that total deposit had increased over the years. But the statistics reflects that the total deposits in state owned Chinese commercial banks is higher than joint- stock banks (Luo & Liang, 2012) . This signifies that the performance of state owned banks was better than joint owned banks in this nation after the GFC. Chinese commercial banks adopts DEA as it benefits them in two ways that includes-
Kapan & Minoiu (2013) found out that, DEA helps in analyzing the efficiency of both the state –owned and joint- stock commercial banks in China. This in turn facilitates in determining profitability of these banks.
Theoretical aspects
The internal factors of the commercial bank play significant role in finding its profitability level. It has been opined by Zhao, Zuo & Zillante (2015) that, the internal factors of the banks includes bank size, equity ratio, cost- to income ratio, core capital adequacy ratio, inter-bank offered rate and non- performing loan ratio. Chen, Chen. & Gerlach (2013) has founded that the commercial bank capital have direct effect on the profits of the bank. With the increasing expansion as well as development of the commercial banking sector in China and its vital position of this nation’s financial system, their operational efficiency has been mainly focused on for increasing their profitability. The commercial banks of China have currently adopted two main efficiency assessing methods that includes- SFA (Stochastic frontier approach) and DEA (data envelopment analysis). The efficiency of bank also includes technical efficiency and scale efficiency. Technical efficiency has been used for measuring the ability of manufactures receiving maximum output in the present technology level. On the other hand, scale efficiency signifies the effect of changes in the efficiency size. Wang (2014) found that, the profitability of bank measured in terms of return on equity (ROE) is directly related to concentration of bank, ownership of bank and other macroeconomic variables. In addition, the intangible bank specific determinants are also important in determining the profitability in the banks. One of the example is the quality of bank managerial decisions. Martin (2012) stated that, the quality of management of commercial bank is closely linked to corporate governance. However, there have been peculiar circumstances in China in account of corporate governance, taken from its transformation to the market economy. The Chinese banks in fact are subject to huge extent to government intervention. There have been several cases in which the Chinese commercial banks were not free in choosing their structure of asset as credit has been directly or indirectly managed by the governments (Sun, 2013). Therefore, weak corporate governance results in low quality of asset, high liquidity and hindering profitability. The Chinese banks that are owned by government are subject to huge government intervention as compared to the banks of private ownership.
Empirical Aspect
Both the state-owned and joint stock commercial banks in China gain profit from their lending activities. The empirical aspect signifies that the structure of market was not the main factor that influenced the profitability of banks. The profitability of banks has been measured by using Return on Assets ( ROA) and return on equity ( ROE) and Net interest margin (NIM). Besides, the ROA on the state –owned commercial banks has been lower than those of joint- stock banks while the ROE for state –owned has been higher than that of joint –stock banks. ROA has been used for two reasons, which includes-
Recent study reflects that the total assets of the Chinese commercial banks had increased during the period 2009 to 2016. However, this indicates that the profitability level of the state owned and joint stock banks improved over this period.
Liang (2012) found that the cost to income ratio of the state-owned commercial bank in China had decreased during the period 2009 to 2016. Likewise, the joint stock commercial banks in this nation also decreased during this period. As a result, it leads to increase in efficiency and profitability of the Chinese commercial banks after the GFC. Moreover, decline in loss of loan rebounds in profit margin of this country.
In addition, the Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of both the state-owned as well as joint stock commercial bank in China had increased slightly increased over this period. The main reason behind this is that the business kept on expanding, the risk were under the control and the retained earnings outcomes into increase in capital. Thus, this adversely impacts on the profitability level of the Chinese commercial banks.
Furthermore, the nonperforming loan rate of the commercial banks in China has been rising during this period. The rise in nonperforming loan rate (NPL) was due to general economic downturn , decline in price of properties and bad operating conditions of the small and medium enterprises (SME). Over this period, this NPL rate of the Chinese commercial banks had increased over this period. This adversely impacts on the profitability level of the banks in this nation (Zhang, Cai & Dickinson, 2016).
The interbank offered rate refers to one of the rate of interest rate with highest level of marketization. This is mainly determined by the lending supply and demand in the market. The interbank offered rate of the Chinese commercial banks had increased over this period, which reflects increase in their profitability level.
Figure : NPL ratio of the Chinese commercial banks
Source: (Chen, Chen & Gerlach, 2013)
Macroeconomic factors
It has been pointed out by Kolapo, Ayeni & Oke (2012), the profitability level of the commercial bank is also influenced by the external factors. Specific to these macroeconomic factors, this study has selected three main determinants for determining profitability of the Chinese commercial banks. These determinants include- real GDP growth rate, growth rate of money supply and rate of unemployment.
Real GDP growth rate refers to the measurement of the economic activity of the nation. Increase in economic growth of this nation encourages the commercial banks in lending more amounts and permitting them in charging higher margins and enhancing their asset quality. Ongore & Kusa (2013) has founded direct relationship between the profitability of bank and the real GDP. Firth, Li & Shuye (2016) opines that per capita income has been used and suggested that this macroeconomic factor has strong positive influence on the earnings of the banks. However, Martin (2012) findings recommended that there has been correlation between the business cycle and profitability of banks. In addition, the real GDP growth rate influences positively on the performance of the banks through three channels that includes- net interest income, operating cost and improvement of loan losses. Therefore, higher GDP growth rate causes increase in firm loans as well as deposits and makes net interest income of banks to enhance. Rise in GDP growth rate entails higher disposable income and decline in unemployment rate in the nation. Thus, net interest income as well as loan losses are pro-cyclical with the growth in GDP (Yao, Luo & Loh, 2013). The real GDP growth rate during the period 2009-2016 in China had slowed significantly over the years after GFC, which reflects deposits in banks have not increased at higher rate and hence increased the cost of loan payments.
Figure : Real GDP growth rate in China
Source: (statistia.com, 2017)
The unemployment rate has indirect relationship with the profitability of banks. Increase in rate of unemployment triggers to rise in NPL rate owing to contraction of reimbursing household capacity (Riaz & Mehar, 2013). Furthermore, rise in unemployment rate leads to material decrease in demand for loans. This in turn leads to significant reduction of the ratio between interest bearing assets and interest bearing liabilities. Therefore, rise in unemployment rate adversely impacts on the financial performance of commercial banks. Recent statistics reflects that the unemployment rate in China during the period 2009 to 2016 had been stable. As the level of unemployment over the years had remained below the target level (5%), it increased the profitability level and improved the financial performance of Chinese commercial banks.
Figure 3: unemployment rate in China during the years 2009-2016
Source: ( As created by author)
Money supply is also considered as another determinant of profitability of the commercial banks. The quantity theory of money states that changes in money supply leads to change in the nominal GDP of the nation and the price level. Money supply signifies the entire currency stock and liquid tools circulating in the economy within a specified time frame (Chen, Chen & Gerlach, 2013). The rise in the money supply reduces interest rates and this in turn creates huge investment and stimulates the consumer spending. It is usually determined by the policy implemented by Central bank. Nevertheless, it is influenced by the household’s behavior that holds money as well as the commercial banks in which the cash is being held. Lee & Chih, (2013) used the money supply as the measure of the market size and hence found that it influences the profitability of banks. Thus, money supply positively affects the profit margins of the commercial banks.
Figure 4: money supply in China during the period 2009-2016
Source: (trading economics.com, 2017)
The above figure reflects that the money supply in China had increased after the GFC (2009-2016). This increase in supply of money enhanced the profitability of both state owned as well as joint stock commercial banks in China. However, the monetary policy implemented by the central bank of China enhances money supply. This in turn directly raises the existing funds of the Chinese commercial banks and there by increases their interest income.
It has been opined by Hou, Wang & Zhang (2014) that, the market concentration has significant indirect relationship with the profitability of banks. Market concentration refers to the extent to which the smaller number of firms or banks accounts for larger percentage in the market. The concentration ratio signifies the presence of market power. Meanwhile, it has been indicated by Dong (2014) that, the industry structure has significant impact on the performance of both the state-owned as well as joint- stock commercial banks in China. According to the share holders perspective, higher concentration rate is linked with the better quality of bank loan, lower risk of asset and less insolvency risk. One of the approach that helps in measuring the market concentration level is Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which is estimated by summing up the squares of the firms market share in the industry. According to Firth, Li & Shuye (2016), the HHI for the banking industry in China that includes both the state –owned as well as joint-stock commercial banks competing in the similar markets is 0.11. This indicates high level of concentration in the Chinese market. Over the last few years (2009-2016), the market concentration level of China remained almost stable. This reflects that the higher market concentration level in Chinese banking industry has increased their banking profitability level. Molyneux, Liu & Jiang, (2014) states that the market power materializing from the concentrated banking industry does not encourage the managers as well as the shareholders to engage in the risky operation of the banks and selection of customers.
A high concentrated market have various applications, which includes-
Conclusion
In the context of the reform in Chinese commercial banks, this study analyzes the determinants of profitability of the Chinese banks after the GFC. The analysis has been done based on the panel data set of five state owned banks and forty joint stock banks. After adopting the DEA, the efficiency of these commercial banks has also been determined in effective way. After reforms in banking, the state owned commercial banks in this nation have become leading financial force in the global economy. They have become more efficient as well as profitable after GFC. Their profitability had also been rooted with high interest margin, cost advantage and oligopolistic market structure with highly protective restrictions. Moreover, as the efficiency of joint –stock banks declines, there profitability became less than the state –owned banks in this nation. The profitability of Chinese commercial banks has been determined based on the both the external and internal factors. In order to enhance financial intermediation of the present commercial banking system in this nation, policymakers considers increasing the ceiling on the rate of deposits. Implementation of this policy helps the shifting the deposits from large to smaller commercial banks that are highly efficient in using these deposits. It also helps in reducing market concentration level and encourages competition among banks. Liquidity also plays critical role in improving bank efficiency and thereby improves their capacity of lending that is based on strategies. From this study, it can be seen that the level of profitability in Chinese commercial banks has increased after the GFC. Moreover, both the external and internal factors reflect the efficiency of the bank improved, which led to rise in profitability level. This in turn improved the financial performance of the Chinese commercial banks during the period 2009-2016. The above study also indicated that the level of profitability in banks seemed to be persistent in China after the GFC.
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